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381.
近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5~6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义 相似文献
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研究发现三马坊水温对应某些构造带上的地震,其前兆异常有相似性和重复性特征.对应北西向张渤构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为突降型,对应东西向阴山-燕山构造带上的地震,其前兆异常形态为上升型,表明水温前兆异常的相似性和重复性特征受活动性构造体系所控制.深入研究三马坊水温前兆异常特征与活动构造带间的关系,可能是突破该地区地震短临预报的有效途径. 相似文献
384.
1995年日本新泻北部M6.0地震发生在新泻地震空区的东部边缘.由于此次地震震源较浅(10
km),造成了55栋房屋倒塌、165栋房屋半倒.通过计算倾倒墓碑的地震矩,对本区地震烈度进行了分析,发现烈度6度区(据日本JMA度)为一覆盖面积6.1×1
km2,呈NNE-SSW向分布的条带,表明震中区的冲积平原下存在一条隐伏断层.震中区地下水的温度、电导率和Cl-浓度等异常区与呈线性分布的6度烈度区大致吻合,也有力地证明了震中区下面存在一条隐伏断层.这次地震可能是由高压型热水系沿隐伏活动断层喷溢引起.带着高温的高压热水降低了岩石的断裂强度,从而触发了地震. 相似文献
385.
睡莲类植物ITS nrDNA序列的分子系统发育分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
睡莲类植物是目前植物分子系统学与进化研究的一个重要类群。核基因组的ITS区是核核糖体(nrDNA)转录单位的一部分。测定和分析了5个属的7种睡莲类植物的核核糖体ITS序列,并与GenBank中提取的相关序列进行了组合分析,初步获得了睡莲类植物的2个ITS系统树,结果也支持现有分子系统学研究中有关金鱼藻处于较原始位置的观点。 相似文献
386.
Yulin DENG Yan PENG Yukuan WANG Zongting YANG Institute of Mountain Hazards Environment Chinese Academy of Sichuan P. R. China College of Forestry Horticulture of Sichuan Agricultural University Sichuan P. R. China. Water Resources Administration in Ya''''an Sichuan P. R. China. 《国际泥沙研究》2003,18(4)
Converting farming slope land into artificial forestland or grassland is a major measure of soil/water conservation. Five conversion practices, namely, 1) a control plot still tilled with a crop (maize), 2) a folder grass-growing plot seeded with Lolium perenne , 3) a young alder tree-growing plot, 4) a pear orchard plot and 5)a bamboo plot intercropped with folder grass, were monitored to compare the soil conservation efficiency of those changes in Ya'an, Sichuan for 3 years between September 1998 and August 2001. Results showed that the 5 designed converting models functioned differently in erosion control. The most effective model was bamboo groves intercropped with folder grass (Lolium perenne). The folder grass (Lolium perenne) growing model was more effective than the pure pear orchard model. The least effective model was the young alder tree-growing slope, which was even less effective than the control (a slope without converted cultivation). Meanwhile, changes in the soil's physical properties r 相似文献
387.
Methodology for construction, calibration and validation of a national hydrological model for Denmark 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
Hans Jrgen Henriksen Lars Troldborg Per Nyegaard Torben Obel Sonnenborg Jens Christian Refsgaard Bjarne Madsen 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,280(1-4):52-71
An integrated groundwater/surface water hydrological model with a 1 km2 grid has been constructed for Denmark covering 43,000 km2. The model is composed of a relatively simple root zone component for estimating the net precipitation, a comprehensive three-dimensional groundwater component for estimating recharge to and hydraulic heads in different geological layers, and a river component for streamflow routing and calculating stream–aquifer interaction. The model was constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE code and by utilising comprehensive national databases on geology, soil, topography, river systems, climate and hydrology. The present paper describes the modelling process for the 7330 km2 island of Sjælland with emphasis on the problems experienced in combining the classical paradigms of groundwater modelling, such as inverse modelling of steady-state conditions, and catchment modelling, focussing on dynamic conditions and discharge simulation. Three model versions with different assumptions on input data and parameter values were required until the performance of the final, according to pre-defined accuracy criteria, model was evaluated as being satisfactory. The paper highlights the methodological issues related to establishment of performance criteria, parameterisation and assessment of parameter values from field data, calibration and validation test schemes. Most of the parameter values were assessed directly from field data, while about 10 ‘free’ parameters were subject to calibration using a combination of inverse steady-state groundwater modelling and manual trial-and-error dynamic groundwater/surface water modelling. Emphasising the importance of tests against independent data, the validation schemes included combinations of split-sample tests (another period) and proxy-basin tests (another area). 相似文献
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The activity of Convention at Montserrat Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during the period 1995–1999 included numerous violent explosions. Two major cycles of Vulcanian explosions occurred in 1997: a first of 13 explosions between 4 and 12 August and a second of 75 between 22 September and 21 October. The explosions were short-lived events lasting a few tens of seconds during which partial fountain collapse generated pyroclastic surges and pyroclastic flows, and buoyant plumes ascended 3–15 km into the atmosphere. Each explosion discharged on average 3×105 m3 (dense-rock equivalent, DRE) of magma, draining the conduit to depths of 1–2 km. The paper focuses on the first few seconds of three explosions of the 75 that occurred in September/October 1997: 6 October 1997 at 17:50, 7 October 1997 at 16:02 and 9 October 1997 at 12:32. Physical parameters such as exit velocities, magmatic water contents and magma pressures at fragmentation are estimated by following and modelling the ascent of individual momentum-dominated finger jets visible on videos during the initial stages of each explosion. The model treats each finger jet as an incompressible flow sustained by a steady flux of gas and particles during the few seconds of ascent, and produces results that compare favourably with those using a multiphase compressible code run using similar eruptive parameters. Each explosion reveals a progressive increase in eruptive intensity with time, jet exit velocities increasing from 40 m s–1 at the beginning of the explosion up to 140 m s–1 after a few seconds. Modelling suggests that the first magma to exit was largely degassed, whereas that discharged after a few seconds contained up to 2 wt% water. Magma overpressures up to ~10 MPa are estimated to have existed in the conduit immediately prior to each explosion. Progressive increases in jet exit velocity with time over the first few seconds of each explosion provide direct evidence for strong pre-eruptive gradients in water content and magma pressure in the upper reaches (probably 100–500 m) of the conduit. Fountain collapse occurred during the first 10–20 s of each explosion because the discharging jets had bulk densities up to 100 times that of the atmosphere and were unable to entrain enough air to become buoyant. Such high eruptive densities were due to the presence of partially degassed magma in the conduit.Editorial responsibility: A. Woods 相似文献