Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.     

宁夏河东沙地不同坡度柠条锦鸡儿(Caragana korshinskii)水分利用策略差异

为探讨全球气候变化背景下多元线性混合模型（IsoSource）和贝叶斯混合模型（MixSIAR）解析宁夏河东沙地柠条锦鸡儿（Caragana korshinskii）水分利用策略差异及适用性,利用氢氧稳定同位素技术,结合直接对比法、IsoSource模型和MixSIAR模型对比分析不同坡度（6°、10°、16°和24°）样地柠条锦鸡儿在生长季不同时期对各潜在水源的利用率,并评估两种模型的植物水分溯源效果。结果表明：柠条锦鸡儿对不同土层深度土壤水的利用存在明显的季节性差异,生长季初期,随着坡度的增大,柠条锦鸡儿对中层土壤水的利用率呈现出先增大后减小的趋势;生长季中期,随坡度增大,柠条锦鸡儿主要水分来源由深层土壤转移至浅层土壤;生长季后期,柠条锦鸡儿主要水分来源随着坡度的增大由浅层土壤转移至深层土壤。基于直接对比法的定性判断结果,IsoSource模型和MixSIAR模型计算坡度6°、10°和16°样地柠条锦鸡儿主要水分来源利用率的适用性均较高;而Mix-SIAR模型计算坡度24°样地柠条锦鸡儿主要的水分来源以及其贡献率具有更高的可靠性。Iso-Source模型更适合解析较小坡度（6°和1...     

The place of rural, remote and least-wealthy small islands in international water development: the nexus of geography–technology sustainability in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia

Many least-wealthy, rural, remote and resource-poor small island communities are unlikely to benefit from high-profile global water improvement initiatives. Their small landmasses, geologic composition, geography, social and technological isolation, colonial history, and weak educational and financial resources constitute significant barriers to improving access to safe drinking water. This paper discusses the relatively unique position of such island societies in the international community, providing a case study of the Federated States of Micronesia that integrates data and information pertaining to water resources management and governance, spanning from the island village to national scale. A vision is offered regarding the interaction between small island human and biophysical water systems, manifesting ways to pursue water resource development to improve public health which are constructed to be economically, physically and culturally sustainable.     

新疆塔里木河流域水资源承载力评价研究

结合塔里木河2002年自然、社会和经济以及水资源资料,选取了耕地灌溉率、水资源利用率、供水模数、需水模数、人均供水量、生态用水率6个主要因素作为评价因素,应用模糊综合评判模型对塔里木河流域水资源承载能力进行了评价研究。结果表明,流域水资源开发利用已经达到相当规模,在现有经济技术条件下,该地区的水资源承载潜力已相对较小,水资源供需矛盾突出,应由耗水型经济结构向节水型经济结构转变,加强水资源的综合管理,以便科学、合理地利用流域内有限的水资源。     

三江平原中东部沼泽湿地形成及其演化趋势的探讨

三江平原中东部是沼泽湿地集中连片分布地区。研究区有阶地沼泽和河漫滩沼泽两大类型沼泽分布,进一步可划分为4个沼泽体,即小叶章（Calamagrostis angustifolia）—毛苔草（Carex lasiocarpa）沼泽;毛苔草沼泽;睡菜（Menyanthes trifoliata）—水木贼（Equisetum limosum）沼泽;漂筏苔草（Carex pseudocuraica）—毛苔草沼泽。研究区沼泽湿地形成的主要自然因素为：①新构造运动的大面积沉降;②地势低平,坡降平缓、河道变迁,复杂的微地貌,易于积水,促使沼泽湿地的大面积形成;③厚3～17m的第四纪粘土层沉积地表,使地表渗透性差;④气候因素,研究区处于温带大陆性湿润季风气候区,雨量集中于夏季,且多秋雨,冬季积雪深度大,封冻期长,季节性冻土层厚;⑤水文因素,河流比降小,糙率大,流速缓,多为沼泽性河流,春汛与夏汛之间只出现平水不出现枯水,洪水期间,洼地和河流受松花江、黑龙江等大河、大江的洪水顶托,研究区的承泄条件差,内水不能外排,长期积蓄地表。目前研究区沼泽有变干的趋向。     

云南省金沙江流域土壤流失方程研究

云南金沙江流域是长江中上游水土流失最严重的区域。本项研究以“通用土壤流失方程”(USLE)为蓝本,运用小区实验等手段,综合分析了各个侵蚀因子,建立了云南金沙江流域土壤流失方程A=R·K·LS·c·P,并确定了方程中诸因子的求算方法和数值,以及该流域土壤允许流失量,为方程的应用提供了基本的技术数据。同时,还进行了方程的检验,方程计算值与小区实测值的相对误差在6.3％以下,表明该方程在实际应用中是可靠的。该方程的建立,可为云南金沙江流域预测预报土壤侵蚀,制定土地合理利用规划方案、水土保持措施和土地生态安全格局提供了一套可靠的科学方法和依据。     

The black hole mass–galaxy age relation

We present evidence that there is a significant correlation between the fraction of the mass of a galaxy that lies in its central black hole and the age of the galactic stellar population. Since the absorption-line indices that are used to estimate the age are luminosity-weighted, they essentially measure the time since the last significant episode of star formation in the galaxy. The existence of this correlation is consistent with several theories of galaxy formation, including the currently favoured hierarchical picture of galaxy evolution, which predicts just such a relation between the black hole mass and the time since the last burst of merger-induced star formation. It is not consistent with models in which the massive black hole is primordial, and hence uncoupled from the stellar properties of the galaxy.     

不同水淹环境下河口感潮湿地枯落物分解及营养动态

采用分解袋法,以我国东南沿海典型的感潮河口--闽江河口最大的鳝鱼滩湿地为研究区域,选取2个潮水水淹环境差异显著的地段(一个为近潮沟地段,另一个为远潮沟地段)为研究样地,对闽江河口主要的本地种芦苇、短叶茳芏及外来人侵种互花米草枯落物分解过程及影响因素进行研究,结果表明:(1)经常性的潮汐水淹对3种植物枯落物分解速率的影响不显著;(2)经常性的潮汐水淹促进了短叶茳芏和互花米草枯落物N、P元素的损失,但对芦苇的影响不大;(3)在2种不同的水淹环境,3种植物枯落物分解速率由快到慢的顺序均是短叶茳芏>互花米草>和芦苇,分解速率在0.003166～0.005280 d-1之间,95%干物质分解需要的时间在1.56～2.61 a之间;(4)C浓度基本稳定,N浓度呈上升趋势,总N在研究末期表现为净损失,P浓度呈较大的波动,总P在研究末期也表现为净损失;(5)具有最低C/P的短叶茳芏枯落物分解速率最快.     

基于谱间特征与比值型指数的水体影像识别分析

根据杨存建等人发现LandsatTM影像水体具有TM₂+TM₃>TM₄+TM₅的特征,本文以2000年福州市Landsat-TM为例,分析了水体及其他几类主要地物的光谱特性在影像中的表现特征,发现除水体外,居民地的影像以及山体影像也都具有TM₂+TM₃>TM₄+TM₅(即(TM₂+TM₃)/(TM₄+TM₅)>1)的特征,但是三者(TM₂+TM₃)/(TM₄+TM₅)的比值却存在着较大的差异,所以辅以适合的阈值(水体(TM₂+TM₃)/(TM₄+TM₅)>2.0,TM₂>40)可以将水体信息区别于其他背景地物。将该方法在含不同水体类型的福州市Landsat-TM遥感影像上进行实验,表明其可以将水体与全部居民地的阴影和山体阴影有效区分开来;同时可用于快速、简便和准确地提取城市和山区中的湿地水体信息,解决水体提取中难于消除居民地阴影与山体阴影的难题。