渭河上游干旱特征与降水对天水市水资源的影响

文中利用气象和水文观测资料。分析了渭河上游50a的干旱特征及降水对天水市水资源的影响，分析表明，渭河上游年降水在空间上有量的差异，但在气候变化趋势上基本一致；降水量存在17、13、11和3a的周期；水资源对气候变化有很强的敏感性。岷县降水量的年际变化对渭河水资源变化有很强的指示性；气候阶段性变化比年际变化对水资源所造成的影响严重；未来20a渭河流域降水很可能呈缓慢上升趋势。     

EFFECTS OF LOW-LATITUDE MONSOON SURGE ON THE INCREASE IN DOWNPOUR FROM TROPICAL STORM BILIS

By using the dataset of CMA-STI Tropical Cyclone Optimal Tracks, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and intensive surface observations, a study is performed of the influences of a low-latitude monsoon surge on the longer persistence and increase in torrential rains from the landing tropical storm Bilis. Results suggest that the southwest monsoon was anomalously active after Bilis came ashore. The westerly winds in Bilis’s south side might give rise to the poleward movement of the SW monsoon, thus enlarging the pressure g...     

江淮流域夏季典型旱涝年大气中的水汽输送和收支

该文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对中国东部区域1991年和1994年这两个夏季旱涝典型年的降水状况、水汽输送及收支状况等进行了综合定量对比分析,结果表明:江淮流域夏季旱涝形势的形成更多地取决于流经其上的东西向水汽输送的变化。南亚夏季风强弱的变化对江淮流域的旱涝形成可能具有更为重要的影响。中国东部夏季的偏西水汽输送主要来自西南地区西边界,江淮流域夏季干旱年该地区西边界的水汽输入明显比洪涝年减少,因而在未来的中国东部旱涝预测中要特别重视西南地区西边界的水汽输送状况。     

华北盛夏暴雨过程的能量特征分析

本文利用实况资料和T213输出资料,对发生在2005年8月16日～17日的华北暴雨过程进行了能量学特征分析,结果表明:暴雨前24h～36h,对流层上下层有暖湿空气同时发展,是暴雨发生的重要动力机制;强的干、湿静力能锋区稳定维持是这次大范围暴雨产生的能量基础,中低层湿静力能差值大于0,且数值很大,说明对流不稳定层结很强,暴雨发生在高能、高不稳定度的条件下;水汽的充足补给作用,是这次暴雨过程能量转换的基础。     

Modelling of Ocean Shallow Convection under Fast Ice in the Arctic

Ocean convection in the Antarctic has been studied many times and has been revealed to be responsible for ice-cover reduction. In the Arctic, proof of that phenomenon has not been documented. It is believed that this phenomenon happens on a smaller scale in the Arctic when local circulation of deep warmer water melts and slows ice production. An example of this is the North Water (NOW) polynya in northern Baffin Bay. A polynya is an area of open water in an otherwise ice-covered area. As ice forms under the fast ice near the boundary of the polynya, ocean salts (brine) are ejected from the newly formed ice. This water, which has an increased concentration of salt, sinks and is replaced by warmer water from below, and this slows ice formation. In our study a coupled one-dimensional thermodynamic snow–fast ice model incorporating ocean heat flux input via a shallow convection model was used. Ice thickness was calculated using a thermodynamic model that included a current-induced entrainment model and a convection model to account for brine rejection during ice growth. Atmospheric observations from Grise Fiord and Thule and ocean profiles around the NOW polynya near these sites were used as input to the model. This purely thermodynamic study enables us to obtain ice thickness values that can be compared with qualitative observations. This modelling study compares two sites related to the NOW polynya. The results indicate that the shallow convection model simulates the reduction of fast ice near Thule but not near Grise Fiord.     

多尺度天气分析理论和应用Ⅱ:锋面和气旋的形成机制

利用多尺度天气分析理论,研究了锋面和气旋的形成机制.结果表明,冷、暖气团是由不同性质的亚微团在环境力的作用下向不同方向运动而形成的,而它们的交界面就是锋面.急流附近强动能梯度力能促进微团的分离,因此锋面与急流有很好的对应关系.另外,低空急流附近存在上干冷下暖湿的稳定气流,原因在于急流之上的能量梯度力与重力的方向相反,导致该区域微团所受到的作用力为零,形成稳定的结构.但当微团运动到急流出口处时,这种平衡不再存在,暖湿微团向上运动而干冷微团向下运动,形成剧烈的天气变化.地球自转所形成的离心力使得轻微团产生向北、向上的运动分量,导致极锋向北倾斜.气旋的形成同样是由亚微刚的分离而产生的.当轻微团离开微团,在绝对环境涡度场的作用下将发生旋转,旋转的方向与初始涡度的方向一致,在北半球地转涡度的垂直分量向上,为逆时针旋转,南半球为顺时针旋转.在气旋的形成过程中,轻亚微团在气压梯度力场和绝对涡度力的作用下呈现螺旋运动,是气旋系统普遍存在螺旋云带和雨带的原因.水汽是气旋在形成和加强过程中的基本能源,由于发生地的不同,温带气旋和台风在水汽输送方式上亦有差别:温带气旋主要依靠低空暖输送带进行水汽输送;台风因为发生在热带海洋,水汽充沛,各个层次都有水汽供应.气旋运动主要受三个力的制约:环境气压梯度场力、绝对涡度场力和环境涡度力,这三个力的作用导致台风在沿副热带高压边缘运动的同时,还存在蛇形路径和打转运动.     

MODIS与NCEP大气可降水量资料的比较分析

利用中国大陆地区2001年4个季节(1、4、7、10月)中8d和4m的NCEP资料，对整层大气的比湿进行积分得到大气可降水量。选用了同时同地的MODIS大气可降水量资料，然后对两者进行了对比分析。结果发现：在中国西北、内蒙地区MODIS大气可降水量资料要比NCEP资料普遍偏大，而在东南和华南部分地区则普遍偏小。如果对上述两个地区的MODIS资料分别乘以修正系数0．933983和1．07686，则两者的差别可控制在0．2cm以内。因此，MODIS大气可降水量资料经过修正后，可以为卫星反演模式提供同化性较好的输入资料。     

北太平洋海温与次年盛夏副热带高压的遥相关响应

选取1952-2005年北太平洋月平均海表温度（SST）资料，经过奇异值分解分析表明：6月份日界线附近西风漂流区的海温集中了北太平洋海温场的主要信息，西风漂流区与赤道冷水区的海温存在遥相关震荡，并且在6月份达到全年的最高值，11月份其振幅出现次高值。6月西风漂流区的海温（SST）可视为来年盛夏（7-8月）西太平洋副热带高压的强弱变化的信号：当6月份西风漂流区的海温（SST）偏低，则来年盛夏西太平洋副热带高压偏强；反之，则来年盛夏西太平洋副热带高压偏弱。     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Availability in the Yellow River Basin

The changes in hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin were simulated by using the Community Land Model(CLM,version 3.5),driven by historical climate data observed from 1951 to 2008.A comparison of modeled soil moisture and runoff with limited observations in the basin suggests a general drying trend in simulated soil moisture,runoff,and precipitation-evaporation balance(P-E) in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the observation period.Furthermore,annual soil moisture,runoff,and P-E averaged over the entire basin have declined by 3.3%,82.2%,and 32.1%,respectively.Significant drying trends in soil moisture appear in the upper and middle reaches of the basin,whereas a significant trend in declining surface runoff and P-E occurred in the middle reaches and the southeastern part of the upper reaches.The overall decreasing water availability is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability.     

WATER VAPOR CONTENT AND MEAN TRANSFER IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHWEST CHINA

The interannual and intermonthly climatic features of the water vapor content(hereafterWVC)and its mean transfer in the atmosphere over Northwest China(hereafter NWC)arecalculated and analyzed by using the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis grid data(2.5°×2.5°Lat/Lon)for 40 years(1958—1997).The results show that the WVC in the total air column over NWC infour seasons of the year is mainly concentrated on eastern and western NWC respectively.On theaverage,the WVC over eastern NWC decreases obviously during recent forty years except forwinter.while it decreases over western NWC in the whole year.But the WVC over NWC has beenincreasing since late 1980s in summer.The water vapor comes from the southwestern warm andwet air current along the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley and the Bay of Bengal.and from mid-western Tibetan Plateau and also from the Qinling Mountains at southern Shaanxi Province.Theyearly water vapor divergence appears over the middle of NWC to northern Xinjiang andsoutheastern Shaanxi Province.The yearly water vapor convergence appears over the Tarim Basinand the Tibetan Plateau as well as western Sichuan and southern Gansu.