基于印度洋海温信号的我国西北地区东部夏季降水组合降尺度预测方法研究

利用国家气候中心第二代气候模式预测业务系统(BCC-CPSv2)预测产品,引入印度洋海温信号,采用组合降尺度方法建立了西北地区东部汛期降水预测模型。该预测模型对1991—2017年西北地区东部夏季降水的回报技巧较BCC-CPSv2预测技巧显著提高,空间相关系数由0.42提高到0.75,均方根误差明显减小,最多下降达80%。预测模型对降水空间分布型的预测能力较好,很好地回报了典型年份（1987年和2010年）夏季的降水距平百分率分布。通过抓住气象变量的空间分布特征,组合降尺度方法可以修正动力模式产品的预测误差,为西北地区东部夏季降水预测提供科学依据和技术支持,具有较好的应用前景。     

中国南水北调工程进展综述

论述南水北调工程的调水背景、工程规划、工程特征、环境影响与生态环境保护及其工程综合效益。     

Clustering of groundwater chemistry data with implications for reservoir appraisal in West Siberia

Division of sedimentary strata according to groundwater chemistry is discussed with implications for petroleum reservoir potential. It is suggested to process multiparametric water chemistry data from West Siberia using formalized clustering techniques. The efficiency of this approach has been tested for Neocomian clinoform reservoirs with reference to regional-scale appraisal and subregional petroleum division.     

用波速层析成像方法提高储层横向预测精度

以数值模拟方法为基础,考察了反射地震层析成像技术对油气储层波速横向检测的效果,然后用渤海油田的地震资料进行了实用试验．对数值模拟结果和实际数据的试验结果进行了分析与评价,认为油气勘探中的反射地震资料具有地震射线近似垂直分布的特点,适合用反射地震层析成像技术进行目标层横向非均匀性检测．     

D) UNITED Nations

Synopsis

In areas of accentuated relief, some of the basic assumptions made in the use of standard methods of assessing areal mean rainfall are often untenable. It is shown in this paper, that, not only does topography affect the actual rainfall distribution, but that the areal variability, measured as the correlation between any two points, is also dependent on the relief. Two methods are used to show this. Once method compares the areal variability of a flat area to one of accentuated relief, while the second method relates areal variability to topographic factors using a multiple regression technique.

The conclusions reached are then used for three purposed. The first is to develop a method of ascribing objectively areas or points to a particular raingauge, taking into account the nature of the terrain. The second is to establish a procedure for estimating the rainfall at ungauged points, by taking into account the rainfall at a selected nearby rainguage and the topographic situation of the points, and the third purpose is to provide means of establishing a correction factor to be applied to a raingauge reading in order that the reading may more accurately represent the area ascribed to it.     

Heterogeneity influences on stream water–groundwater interactions in a gravel-dominated floodplain

ABSTRACT

Floodplains are composed of complex depositional patterns of ancient and recent stream sediments, and research is needed to address the manner in which coarse floodplain materials affect stream–groundwater exchange patterns. Efforts to understand the heterogeneity of aquifers have utilized numerous techniques typically focused on point-scale measurements; however, in highly heterogeneous settings, the ability to model heterogeneity is dependent on the data density and spatial distribution. The objective of this research was to investigate the correlation between broad-scale methodologies for detecting heterogeneity and the observed spatial variability in stream/groundwater interactions of gravel-dominated alluvial floodplains. More specifically, this study examined the correlation between electrical resistivity (ER) and alluvial groundwater patterns during a flood event at a site on Barren Fork Creek, in the Ozark ecoregion of Oklahoma, USA, where chert gravels were common both as streambed and as floodplain material. Water table elevations from groundwater monitoring wells for a flood event on 1–5 May 2009 were compared to ER maps at various elevations. Areas with high ER matched areas with lower water table slope at the same elevation. This research demonstrated that ER approaches were capable of indicating heterogeneity in surface water–groundwater interactions, and that these heterogeneities were present even in an aquifer matrix characterized as highly conductive. Portions of gravel-dominated floodplain vadose zones characterized by high hydraulic conductivity features can result in heterogeneous flow patterns when the vadose zone of alluvial floodplains activates during storm events.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR X. Chen     

莺歌海盆地中央泥底辟带气田水地球化学特征及其油气地质意义

以莺歌海盆地东方区和乐东区气田水样品水化学常规分析为切入点,利用气田水矿化度、水型、钠氯系数(变质系数)、脱硫系数,氯镁系数等参数,深入分析了两区气田水地球化学特征及水化学组合参数特征,并判识对比了两区气藏封闭程度及其保存条件。在此基础上,结合莺歌海盆地天然气成藏地质条件,重点剖析了两区气田水分布规律及成因控制因素,探讨了两区气田水与天然气运聚成藏之间的成因联系。强调指出,两区气田水具有相似的形成演化特征,天然气保存条件好,但对比两区气田水的水化学组合参数,乐东区天然气保存条件稍差于东方区;东方区气田水以NaHCO3水型占绝对优势,其分布规律与断裂系统存在密切联系。该区水文地质开启程度差,气藏盖层封闭性好,有利于天然气富集成藏。乐东区气田水类型多样,成因复杂,天然气保存条件较好但相对东方区稍差。两区气田水具分区分块分布规律,莺歌海盆地泥底辟及其伴生热流体活动对气田水成因及分布规律与天然气运聚成藏等均具有重要控制作用和影响。     

中国煤层气资源控制程度及可靠性分析

准确认识深部条件下气体和水分的赋存状态、相对含量及分布特征,对煤层气高效勘探开发具有重要指导意义。基于理论模型、分子模拟和气水演变分析,明确了煤层中气、水的赋存状态,揭示了气、水动态运聚界限和动态演化过程。考虑煤−水界面作用、水的可动性及赋存状态,煤中水可分为可动水(重力水和毛细水)、束缚水(吸附水、沸石水、结晶水和层间水)、结构水,其中毛细水、重力水和吸附水由孔隙主导,沸石水、结构水、结晶水和层间水由矿物主导。分子模拟结果显示,水分子在0.7 nm孔隙中可以饱和充填,吸附和解吸路径一致,在更大孔隙中出现弱吸附层和自由态。水分子吸附过程表现为单分子含氧基团吸附、单层强吸附、多层弱吸附、水团簇形成和充填孔隙等阶段。甲烷分子在1.5 nm孔隙可存在3层稳定充填吸附,在较大孔隙中(>1.5 nm)即以单层吸附和游离态共存,游离态在介孔及更大孔隙中普遍存在。结合上述吸附−游离气存在界限,改进了游离气和吸附气理论计算公式,为含气量计算提供新思路。深部热成因煤层气是煤大规模生排烃之后的残余气,在排烃过程中发生气驱水和水分蒸发扩散,残余水分为束缚水和结构水,后期无法改变。假定静水压力20 MPa,在0、5、10、15和20 MPa储层压力下,外来水分可入侵最大孔径为7、9、13、27 nm和不侵入。受差异保存条件控制,煤成气除了形成超压和欠压等差异含气系统外,还可能在煤系形成多类型含气模式。上述研究明确了煤层气、水微观赋存机制及形成演化模式,对深部煤层气富集特征及高效开发设计具有指导意义。

     

A new theoretical solution of the effect of atmospheric pressure on water level

Based on the partial differential equation governing the effect of atmospheric pressure on water level of confined well, deriving the boundary condition and considering the seepage water between well and aquifer, the author obtained the analytical solution of water level change in time domain under the action of an atmospheric pressure history with the Laplace transform method. This solution is composed of two terms:stable and retarded terms. The stable term is the multiplication of barometric efficiency and simultaneous atmospheric pressure, and it implies the value of water level after infinite time when the atmospheric pressure is a constant from the time in question. The retarded term is the transient process due to the time lag of water exchange between well and aquifer. From the solution, it is obtained that the interference of atmospheric pressure on water level is the integral superimposition of the contribution of all atmospheric pressure changes before the time in question. So that, we further found out the response function of pulsive atmospheric pressure history. Calculation shows: (1) The pulsive response function starts from zero and tends to a steady value, which is proportional to the barometric efficiency, when the time tends to infinity; (2) The retarded time depends on the mechanical property of aquifer and the radius of well. The larger the seepage coefficient, the smaller the radius of well and the thicker the aquifer, then the shorter the retarded time gets. This solution can be used as the theoretical basis for further analysis of the atmospheric effect and practical correcting method in the future.     

豫01井水位异常与地震的关系分析

针对2018年青海德令哈台尕海井水位破年变异常,系统梳理和分析该井相关资料,发现该井两套水位仪运行稳定、数据一致性非常好,而这段时期异常与降雨和气压不相关,以及井孔附近地区的视应力值较高,表明该地区地壳应力水平进一步增强。利用水位变幅、去趋势和一阶差分分析,结果显示,该项异常信度较高,反映该区域构造活动信息,是周边两次中等强度地震的共同前兆,属于中短期异常。