Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic reliability assessment of urban water networks

We present a framework for the seismic risk assessment of water supply networks, operating in either normal or abnormal conditions. We propose a methodology for assessing the reliability of water pipe networks combining data of past non‐seismic damage and the vulnerability of the network components against seismic loading. Historical data are obtained using records of damages that occur on a daily basis throughout the network and are processed to produce‘survival curves’, depicting their estimated survival rate over time. The fragility of the network components is assessed using the approach suggested in the American Lifelines Alliance guidelines. The network reliability is assessed using graph theory, whereas the system network reliability is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology proposed is demonstrated both on a simple, small‐scale, network and also on a real‐scale district metered area from the water network of the city of Limassol, Cyprus. The proposed approach allows the estimation of the probability that the network fails to provide the desired level of service and allows the prioritization of retrofit interventions and of capacity‐upgrade actions pertaining to existing water pipe networks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

水位变化对河流、湖泊湿地植被的影响

水位是湿地生态水文过程的关键因素之一,其改变将影响湿地植被覆盖度和物种组成,最终产生群落演替.从水位梯度,水位波动和人工控湖、控河工程3方面论述水位变化对湿地植被的影响:由于对水位选择的不同及彼此竞争力的差异,湿地植物种沿水位具有梯度分布现象,同时形态可塑性能对其分布范围产生一定影响;水位波动的频率和淹没持续时间对于植被演替具有基础性的作用,水位波动幅度的影响则相对较小,周期性波动能维持以草本植物为主的湿地植被的物种多样性和稳定性,非周期性波动以洪水、干旱为主,易促进湿地植被向固定的水生或陆生方向演替;人工控湖、控河的影响在机理上并无特殊之处,但保证物种多样性和生态系统稳定性的各种缓解措施具有较高的参考价值.基于机理的量化模型,自然、人为因素驱动下水位变化对湿地植被影响的差别研究,模拟水位波动实验以及人工控湖、控河工程的跟踪观测将是今后该领域研究的热点.     

Seismic identification of channel sandbodies in the Fuyang oil layer in North Songliao Basin, China

The Fuyang oil-layer in North Songliao Basin is characterized by thin interbedded sands and shales, strong lateral variation, strong reservoir heterogeniety, and so on. The thickness of individual sand layers is generally 3 - 5 m. Identifying the channel sand-bodies of the Fuyang oil layer using seismic techniques is very difficult due to the low seismic resolution. Taking the GTZ area as an example, we discuss the genetic characteristics of the channel sand-bodies and point out the real difficulty in using seismic techniques to predict the channel sand-bodies. Two methods for the identification of channels are presented： frequency spectrum imaging and pre-stack azimuthal anisotropy. Identifying the channel sand-bodies in Fuyu oil-layer using the two seismic methods results in a success rate up to 80% compared with well data.     

Melt inclusion analysis of the Unzen 1991–1995 dacite: implications for crystallization processes of dacite magma

Dacitic magma, a mixture of high-temperature (T) aphyric magma and low-T crystal-rich magma, was erupted during the 1991–1995 Mount Unzen eruptive cycle. Here, the crystallization processes of the low-T magma were examined on the basis of melt inclusion analysis and phase relationships. Variation in water content of the melt inclusions (5.1–7.2 wt% H₂O) reflected the degassing history of the low-T magma ascending from deeper levels (250 MPa) to a shallow magma chamber (140 MPa). The ascent rate of the low-T magma decreased markedly towards the emplacement level as crystal content increased. Cooling of magma as well as degassing-induced undercooling drove crystallization. With the decreasing ascent rate, degassing-induced undercooling decreased in importance, and cooling became more instrumental in crystallization, causing local and rapid crystallization along the margin of the magma body. Some crystals contain scores of melt inclusions, whereas there are some crystals without any inclusions. This heterogeneous distribution suggests the variation in the crystallization rate within the magma body; it also suggests that cooling was dominant cause for melt entrapment. Numerical calculations of the cooling magma body suggest that cooling caused rapid crystal growth and enhanced melt entrapment once the magma became a crystal-rich mush with evolved interstitial melt. The rhyolitic composition of melt inclusions is consistent with this model.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

Geophysical implications of Izu–Bonin mantle wedge hydration from chemical geodynamic modeling

Using two-dimensional dynamic models of the Northern Izu–Bonin (NIB) subduction zone, we show that a particular localized low-viscosity (η_LV =  3.3 × 10¹⁹ − 4.0 × 10²⁰ Pa s), low-density (Δρ ∼ −10 kg/m³ relative to ambient mantle) geometry within the wedge is required to match surface observations of topography, gravity, and geoid anomalies. The hydration structure resulting in this low-viscosity, low-density geometry develops due to fluid release into the wedge within a depth interval from 150 to 350 km and is consistent with results from coupled geochemical and geodynamic modeling of the NIB subduction system and from previous uncoupled models of the wedge beneath the Japan arcs. The source of the fluids can be either subducting lithospheric serpentinite or stable hydrous phases in the wedge such as serpentine or chlorite. On the basis of this modeling, predictions can be made as to the specific low-viscosity geometries associated with geophysical surface observables for other subduction zones based on regional subduction parameters such as subducting slab age.     

华北北部地热田区地下流体观测中出现的问题及应对方法

在对华北北部地热田区自流热水井地下流体前兆观测及现状进行广泛调查的基础上,分析地震地下流体观测井因过度开采热水而引起观测井断流,并由此引发的一系列严重问题。介绍为此采取的测项调整、观测装置改造、观测条件改变、观测环境保护区的划定等各种措施。指出测项调整、观测装置与观测条件改变的有效性与局限性,强调解决问题的根本出路在于观测环境的保护,同时说明当前落实观测环境保护遇到的困难。     

南海北部第四系厚度分布图的编制与简要说明

收集南海北部大量多道地震和钻井资料,编制了该区域首幅第四系厚度分布图。第四系等厚线总体呈NEE向,特别是珠江口外大陆架最明显,莺歌海、琼东南呈NW-EW-NE向弧形,珠江口大陆架南部存在次一级NW向等厚线。第四系等厚线分布形态明显受到断裂构造控制。     

2D NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOOD AND FLUVIAL PROCESS IN THE MEANDERING AND ISLAND-BRAIDED MIDDLE YANGTZE RIVER

The characteristics of water flow and sediment transport in a typical meandering and island-braided reach of the middle Yangtze River is investigated using a two-dimensional （2D） mathematical model. The major problems studied in the paper include the carrying capacity for suspended load, the incipient velocity and transport formula of non-uniform sediment, the thickness of the mixed layer on the riverbed, and the partitioning of bed load and suspended load. The model parameters are calibrated using extensive field data. Water surface profiles, distribution of flow velocities, riverbed deformation are verified with site measurements. The model is applied to a meandering and island-braided section of the Wakouzi-Majiazui reach in the middle Yangtze River, which is about 200 km downstream from the Three Gorges Dam, to study the training scheme of the navigation channels. The model predicts the processes of sediment deposition and fiver bed erosion, changes of flow stage and navigation conditions for the first 20 years of impoundment of the Three Gorges Project.