Disjunctive Kriging with Hard and Imprecise Data

This paper presents a methodology for assessing local probability distributions by disjunctive kriging when the available data set contains some imprecise measurements, like noisy or soft information or interval constraints. The basic idea consists in replacing the set of imprecise data by a set of pseudohard data simulated from their posterior distribution; an iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to achieve such a simulation step. The whole procedure is repeated many times and the final result is the average of the disjunctive kriging estimates computed from each simulated data set. Being data-independent, the kriging weights need to be calculated only once, which enables fast computing. The simulation procedure requires encoding each datum as a pre-posterior distribution and assuming a Markov property to allow the updating of pre-posterior distributions into posterior ones. Although it suffers some imperfections, disjunctive kriging turns out to be a much more flexible approach than conditional expectation, because of the vast class of models that allows its computation, namely isofactorial models.     

含裂隙煤层底板突水规律的数值模拟与工程应用

本文结合淮北杨庄矿某工作面实际工程情况, 利用NCAP-2D-W对煤层底板突水进行多方案的数值模拟试验研究。主要内容包括:(1) 考虑在承压水不变的条件下,设计不同裂隙分布状态,探讨单裂隙、多裂隙、不同长度裂隙对煤层底板破坏的影响及开采矿压对裂隙顶部破坏的影响;(2) 考虑承压水的变化,分别考虑单裂隙和多裂隙两种分布状态,探讨裂隙对煤层底板破坏的影响及开采矿压对裂隙底部破坏的影响。通过分析受采动荷载、岩层结构变化、煤层底板中裂隙分布状态及承压水变化等因素影响的数值试验,获得了随开采工作面不断推进煤层底板破坏区的发展、突水导升高度的递增、突水通道的形成等相关规律。     

Spectral and Multiscale Signal-to-Noise Thresholding of Spherical Vector Fields

The basic concepts of spectral and multiscale selective reconstruction of (geophysically relevant) vector fields on the sphere from error-affected data is outlined in detail. The reconstruction mechanism is formulated under the assumption that spectral as well as multiscale approximation is well-representable in terms of only a certain number of expansion coefficients at the various resolution levels. It is shown that spectral denoising by means of orthogonal expansions in terms of vector spherical harmonics reflects global a priori information of the noise (e.g., in form of a covariance tensor field), whereas multiscale signal-to-noise thresholding can be performed under locally dependent noise information within a multiresolution analysis in terms of spherical vector wavelets. An application of the multiscale formalism to Earth's magnetic field determination is presented.     

山西省大型水库水环境评价

通过对山西省大型水库1983年至1985年及1996年至1998年水质监测资料的分析评价，表明67％的水库水质只要进行简单处理后，即可满足各类用水要求，其余33％污染较重的水库，其污染物质也十分单一。因此山西省大型水库开发利用的前景十分广阔。在此基础上，进一步提出了大型水库水质保护和改善措施。     

A Laboratory and Theoretical Study on the Uptake of SO2 Gas by Large and Small Water Drops Containing Heavy Metal Ions

Laboratory experiments have been carried out to investigate the uptake of sulfur dioxide by water drops containing heavy metal ions where the metal ions serve as catalysts to oxidise the taken up S(IV) into S(VI). During the gas uptake the drops were freely suspended at their terminal velocity in the airstream of the Mainz vertical wind tunnel. Two series of experiments were carried out, one with large millimeter size water drops containing manganese or iron ions, and the other with small water drops containing manganese ions and having radii in hundreds of micron size range. The experimental results were compared against model computations using the Kronig–Brink model and the fully mixed model, modified for the case that heavy metal ions present in the liquid phase act as catalysts for the oxidising process. The results of the model calculations show that there are only small differences between the predicted gas uptake according to the two models. In addition it was found that the experimental obtained results from the uptake of SO₂ by water drops containing heavy metal ions for both, large and small water drops did agree with the model results.     

月降水量的神经网络混合预报模型研究

以均生函数表征预报量自身周期变化，结合500hPa月平均高度场和月平均海温场预报因子，采用神经网络方法建立了一种新的短期气候预报模型。分别以广西桂北、桂中和桂南6月降水量作为预报对象进行预报试验，结果表明，这种新的预报方法比均生函数回归预报模型及高度场、海温场预报因子的回归预报模型，具有更好的物理基础和预报能力。     

Quantitative Evaluation of Water Deposited By Dew on Monuments

Samples of White and Green Carrara marble, and three types oflimestone and brick exposed in the field vertically and horizontally were used to evaluate condensationon monuments during clear sky nights. Experiments in a simulation chamber under controlledconditions led to a general equation for the actual amount of water deposited on a surface by dew.This is determined by: How much and for how long the surface temperature falls below the dew point,the moisture content in the air and the ventilation. On clear nights, the condensation on buildingstructures facing the sky may reach some 0.2 kg m^-2 (or 0.2 mm), whereas condensation on verticalsurfaces is very small. Computation of the seasonal trend of night-time condensationshowed that the maximum amount of water condensed per night occurs in the autumn, with the moreabundant concentration of moisture in the air. The total amount of water condensed per month isfound to be a maximum in the summer-autumn period. Morning condensationfor the thermal inertia of monuments is also relevant, and has been calculated to reach the same order of magnitude as thenocturnal dew. A detailed analysis of the temperature and mixing ratio profiles near a condensingsurface has shown two different situations. In still air, the two profiles follow an exponentiallaw and the thermal and the concentration layers lie within a few tens of millimetres. Inthe presence of turbulence, the thickness of these two layers is dramatically reduced. In still air, infront of a vertical, chilly surface, the deposition rate of air pollutants by thermophoresis and/orStefan flow is increased by 3 or 4 times in comparison with a horizontal surface. In the presence ofturbulence, the thickness of the thermal and concentration layers was dramatically reduced, makingthese two kinds of deposition much faster.     

The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy

Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth’s environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability.     

Comparison of the Langrangian Footprint

We compare flux and concentration footprint estimates of athree-dimensional Lagrangian stochastic dispersion modelapplying backward trajectories with the results of ananalytical footprint model by Kormann and Meixner.The comparison is performed for varying stability regimesof the surface layer as well as for different measurementheights. In general, excellent correspondence is found.