长江防洪决策支持系统——防洪决策风险分析

针对长江中游防洪决策过程,筛选出几个主要的风险因子.考虑暴雨洪水历史资料,短期洪水位预报以及中长期雨洪预报三种不同信息条件,建立防洪决策风险分析模型,针对长江三峡至螺山河段防洪系统,是否启用分蓄洪区的各种防洪决策方案,给出决策风险的定量描述.     

Correspondence between the large volcanic eruptions and ENSO events over AD 1525–2000

ENSO is an interannual mode which may be affected by external forcing, such as volcanic eruptions. Based on the reconstructed volcanic eruptions chronology and ENSO sequences, both 195 large volcanic eruptions(VEI≥4) and 398 ENSO(El Ni?o and La Ni?a) events were extracted from 1525 to 2000. An analysis of the correspondence between the large volcanic eruptions and ENSO events was performed by matching the large volcanic eruptions with the types and magnitudes of ENSO events present in the 0–2 years after the eruptions. The results show the following:(1) The percentages of ENSO events within the 3 years after the large eruptions had increased to 68.3% from 31.7% compared with those with no-eruptions in the previous 0–2 years. In addition, the ratio of El Ni?o to La Ni?a events turned from 2:3 to 1:1, and more El Ni?o events occurred in the 0 year after eruptions in the low-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics but more La Ni?a events occurred in the 0 year after in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere.(2) After the eruptions, the weak(W) El Ni?o events had increased by 8 percentage points and the very strong(VS) El Ni?o events had decreased by 10 percentage points; conversely, there was a decrease by 15 percentage points of the weak La Ni?a events and an increase by 11.4 percentage points of the very strong La Ni?a events. Specifically, the percentages of strong La Ni?a events increased to a peak at 1(+1) year after the eruptions.(3) The percentage of eruptions followed by single-year ENSO was the greatest. The percentage of ENSO events that occurred in the consecutive 2 years following an eruption was approximately equal to the percentage of events that occurred consecutively 3 years following an eruption, and both sets of ENSO magnitudes showed a decreasing trend.     

Trends and risk evolution of drought disasters in Tibet Region,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The risk posed by natural disasters can be largely reflected by hazard and vulnerability. The analysis of long-term hazard series can reveal the mechanisms by...     

Distribution and characteristics of volcanic reservoirs in China

About forty productive oil/gas fields hosted in volcanic reservoirs have been found since 1957 in fourteen basins of China. They can be simply subdivided into two groups, the east and the west. Reservoir volcanic rocks of the east group are predominantly composed of Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous rhyolite and Tertiary basalt, preferred being considered as rift type volcanics developed in the circum-Pacific tectonic regime. Those of the west are Permo-Carboniferous intermediate/basic volcanic rocks, being island-arc type ones developed in paleo-Asian Ocean tectonic regime.     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model of a strong volcanic blast and a method of estimating the mass ejected

A hydrodynamic model of a strong volcanic blast associated with large (caldera-forming) ash–gas-flow eruptions is presented. We show that the mass erupted from a vent influences considerably the damping of the shock wave. If the ejected mass flux is constant, the shock amplitude as a function of distance will decrease slower (in accordance with the inverse 4/3 power law) than that of an atomic explosion (the inverse cube power law). From the modelling, we extract a relation connecting the effective energy of a blast with the mass ejected during the blast phase. The mass released during the largest explosion of the 1883 eruption of Krakatau, and the lateral blast energy at Mount St. Helens on 1980 May 18 are estimated on the basis of the equation obtained.     

FARMING THE FOREST EDGE: VULNERABLE PLACES AND PEOPLE AROUND KIBALE NATIONAL PARK,UGANDA

ABSTRACT. Subsistence farmers near Kibale National Park, Uganda, fear and resent many wildlife species. In this article I compare records of crop damage by wildlife and livestock with local complaints about the worst animals and the most vulnerable crops. I discuss the concordance and discrepancies in complaints versus actual damage in light of physical parameters of risk and of social factors that shape perceptions and vulnerabilities. Crop losses were greatest at the edge of the forest, where immigrants are disproportionately represented. State proprietorship of wildlife amplifies local vulnerability and constrains traditional coping strategies, such as hunting.     

Baseline determination,pollution source and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Amu Darya Basin,Central Asia

Central Asia(CA) is one of the most fragile regions worldwide owing to arid climate and accumulated human activities, and is a global hotspot due to gradually deteriorating ecological environment. The Amu Darya Basin(ADB), as the most economically and demographically important region in CA, is of particular concern. To determine the concentration,source and pollution status of heavy metals(HMs) in surface sediments of the ADB, 154samples were collected and analyzed for metals across the basin. C...     

Placing geographies of public health

Following the move to a 'post–medical' geography, a large amount of research has come to focus on public health issues. This paper explores these current geographies of public health and argues for the development of a more critical perspective. In particular, it draws on commentary that has emerged out of debates that have taken place within a body of literature usually identified as the critical 'new' public health. The paper goes on to argue that such scholarship offers crucial insights for the production of a critical geography of public health.     

城市化过程中土地征用风险表征及对策

从土地征用基本概念和基本特征着手，描述了土地征用的主要风险，其表现为土地征用权力滥用、侵害失地农民的权益、诱发集体土地黑市、诱发社会矛盾等方面。分析了产生风险的“公共利益需要”缺乏明确界定、土地征用的补偿标准偏低或滞后、土地征用及相关制度不健全或存在缺陷等主要原因。提出了控制与规避风险的对策与措施：严格限定公益性用地范围，提高征地补偿标准，扩大补偿范围，完善相关制度，严格土地征用程序。