安宁河-则木河-小江带强震趋势的预测依据和应用问题

分析了近年沿安宁河一则木河一小江断裂带和大凉山断裂带出现的突出地震活动性、跨断层地壳形变和宏、微观异常现象。根据这些异常依据分析了强震趋势及预测应用问题，并进行了有益的思考。     

岳阳及周边地区地震构造与地震活动性研究

陈述了岳阳市及周边地区的主要断裂带及其地震活动，归纳了发震部位。认为利用小震条带预报本区地震具有积极意义，并运用数理统计法预测了本区今后50及100年内的地震活动水平。     

福建省地壳形变观测网建设进展与展望

简述了建设中的福建地壳形变台网的概况，福建地壳形变台网，以GPS观测为主，结合精密重力、水准和流动地磁测量，将三者观测重合到CPS基准站，形成有特色的观测网络。通过福建省5个基准站、16个基本站及一个数据处理中心，动态监测东南沿海地区地壳运动，为地震预测预报提供背景信息。     

中国大陆西部及邻区板内8级大地震活动过程和趋势预测初步研究

中国大陆西部及邻区是全球 8级大地震最为活跃的地区之一。自 180 0年以来该区板内 8级大地震共发生了 16次 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西 8.1级大地震 (36 .1°N ,90 .9°E)是在 195 7年蒙古 8.3级大地震之后 4 4a发生的。研究表明该区 8级大地震的活动过程可能存在相对平静 (1812— 190 2年 )和相对活跃 (190 3— 195 7年 )交替的幕式或轮回过程的性质。 195 7年蒙古地震之后可能是一次新的轮回开始 ,2 0 0 1年昆仑山口西地震是新轮回的第二次地震 ,按照轮回过程中事件发生频度是时间的指数函数关系的假定 ,该区下一次 8级大地震可能约在 2 0 2 6年发生。如果假定该过程相当接近泊松过程。那么 ,在 2 0 0 5 ,2 0 10年和 2 0 15年前至少发生一次 8级大地震的泊松概率 ,分别是 0 .2 9,0 .5 3和 0 .70。     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of M_S=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

Introduction The MS=8.1 earthquake occurred in west of the Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. It is the greatest earthquake occurred in China since the last half of the century and is an important event in recent seismic history of China. Some specialists consider that the earthquake occurred in the area where the earthquake monitoring capability is lowest in Chinese mainland; no striking precursory seismicity was found. The study on the precursory seismicity before the earthquake has not b…     

Predictive instantaneous optimal control of elastic structures during earthquakes

A predictive instantaneous optimal control (PIOC) algorithm is proposed for controlling the seismic responses of elastic structures. This algorithm compensates for the time delay that happens in practical control applications by predicting the structural response over a period that equals the time delay, and by substituting the predicted response in the instantaneous optimal control (IOC) algorithm. The unique feature of this proposed PIOC algorithm is that it is simple and at the same time compensates for the time delay very effectively. Numerical examples of single degree of freedom structures are presented to compare the performance of PIOC and IOC systems for various time delay magnitudes. Results show that a time delay always causes degradation of control efficiency, but PIOC can greatly reduce this degradation compared to IOC. The effects of the structure's natural periods and the choice of control gains on the degradation induced by the time delay are also analyzed. Results show that shorter natural periods and larger control gains are both more sensitive and more serious to the degradation of control efficiency. Finally, a practical application of PIOC is performed on a six‐story moment‐resisting steel frame. It is demonstrated that PIOC contributes significantly to maintain stability in multiple degree of freedom structures, and at the same time PIOC has a satisfactory control performance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东营凹陷第三系隐蔽油气藏的地震预测研究

论述了山东省东营凹陷第三系隐蔽油气藏(四大类：岩性型、地层型、裂隙型和复合型)的识别与地震预测技术，应用相干分析、地震属性分析和Stratamagic等地球物理勘探技术，对隐蔽油气藏进行了预测、描述及油气综合评价，为勘探开发提供了井位，取得了显著的效果。     

APPLICATION OF SOME MECHANICAL CONCEPTS TO STRUCTURAL GEOLOGY

This paper discusses some mechanical concepts that have been largely applied to structural geology and tectonics, and addresses the problems and misunderstandings in use of these mechanical terms. The purpose is to stimulate the interests for structural geologists in using the mechanical principles and methods correctly to solve the geodynamic problems.     

Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

Predictive GIS-Based Model of Rockfall Activity in Mountain Cliffs

Rockfall susceptibility has been analysed in mountain cliffs of the Cantabrian Range, North Spain. The main aim of this analysis has been to build a predictive model of rockfall activity from a low number of environmental and geological variables. The rockfall activity has been quantified in a GIS. The cartographic information used shows the spatial distribution of all the recent talus screes as well as their associated source areas in the rock-slopes. The area relation At/Ar (recent talus scree polygon/source basins) in the rock slopes has been used as the rockfall activity indicator. This relation has been validated in 50 pilot rock-slopes and compared with the relation number of recent rock fragments/source basin, obtained from field work. The environmental factors causing rockfall depend on the rock slope situation, and these are: altitude and sun radiation on the rock cliff. The geological factors considered are: lithology, relative position of the main discontinuities with respect to the topographic surface and two morphologic parameters: the roughness and slope gradient. A logistic regression analysis has been applied to a population of 442 limestone and quartzite rock cliffs. The dependent variable is the rockfall activity indicator, which allows the definition of two classes of rock cliff units: low and high activity. The independent variables are altitude, sun radiation (equinox radiation, summer solstice radiation, winter solstice radiation), slope roughness, slope gradient,anisotropy and lithology. Results suggest that it is possible tobuild a valid cartographic predictive model for rockfall activity in mountain rock cliffs from a limited number of easily obtainable variables. The method is especially applicable in massive rock slopes or in regions with uniform rock mass characteristics.