中尺度对流系统的动热力特征及其演变对风垂直切变的响应

为探究环境风切变在对流系统发生发展与维持过程中的重要性,利用2009年6月5日20时（北京时）上海宝山站的探空资料生成理想试验初始场,设计了包含改变整层、中层和低层风切变在内的多组试验,对比分析各试验系统的动热力结构特征及其演变发现:(1)整层环境风切变的改变对中尺度对流系统的影响最显著,其次是中层风切变。增大整层风切变时,对流系统强度及组织性最强,生命史增长。减小整层风切变时,系统强度最弱且组织结构易发散。(2)风切变增加,水平涡度增大,其受垂直运动影响转化为垂直涡度,涡旋对与垂直运动间相互作用形成的正反馈过程是系统强度增强并可以长时间维持线状结构的重要原因。(3)风切变减小,对流系统移动速度远小于阵风锋,阵风锋移至系统前方,阻断系统前沿上升气流必需的暖输送。阵风锋后冷而稳定的环境令系统逐渐消散。      

IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION,MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING——A CASE STUDY

The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U.S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed, in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis are needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.     

The impact of different vertical diffusion schemes in a three-dimensional oil spill model in the Bohai Sea

Vertical transport is critical to the movement of oil spills in seawater. Breaking waves play an important role by developing a well-defined mixing layer in the upper part of the water column. A three-dimensional （3-D） Lagrangian random walk oil spill model was used here to study the influence of sea surface waves on the vertical turbulence movement of oil particles. Three vertical diffusion schemes were utilized in the model to compare their impact on oil dispersion and transportation. The first scheme calculated the vertical eddy viscosity semi-empirically. In the second scheme, the vertical diffusion coefficient was obtained directly from an Eulerian hydrodynamic model （Princeton Ocean Model, POM2k） while considering wave- caused turbulence. The third scheme was formulated by solving the Langevin equation. The trajectories, percentages of oil particles intruding into water, and the vertical distribution structures of oil particles were analyzed for a series of numerical experiments with different wind magnitudes. The results showed that the different vertical diffusion schemes could generate different horizontal trajectories and spatial distributions of oil spills on the sea surface. The vertical diffusion schemes caused different water-intruding and resurfacing oil particle behaviors, leading to different horizontal transport of oil particles at the surface and subsurface of the ocean. The vertical diffusion schemes were also applied to a realistic oil spill simulation, and these results were compared to satellite observations. All three schemes yielded acceptable results, and those of the third scheme most closely simulated the observed data.     

基于星载云雷达资料的东亚大陆云垂直结构特征分析

利用近5年(2006年6月—2011年4月)的Cloudsat卫星资料分析了东亚大陆云垂直结构特征。结果表明:(1)降水(文中可降水是根据观测到的可降水粒子信息计算到达地面的降水,并不是指地面观测到的实际降水)云和非降水云的雷达反射率(回波)垂直分布存在一定差异,除降水云反射率通常接地外,降水云主要集中在8 km以下,反射率通常为-20—15dBz,非降水云主要集中在4—12 km,反射率为-28—0 dBz;降水云雷达反射率频数大值中心在2 4 km,对应的雷达反射率为0—10 dBz,而非降水云出现在8—10 km,且对应的雷达反射率为-26—-24 dBz;(2)从雷达反射率廓线来看,降水云中雷达反射率随高度的变化先增强后减弱,而非降水云几乎不变;(3)液态降水云、固态降水云和毛毛雨降水云反射率的垂直分布明显不同;(4)液态降水云自11至7 km雷达反射率迅速增强,表明此高度是粒子快速增长的优势空间;(5)固态降水云中-15℃温度频数分布与雷达反射率频数大值中心有很好的对应关系,表明在-15℃附近的条件下冰相粒子凝华-碰冻是粒子增长的优势过程;(6)云的垂直结构随着季节变更而变化,降水云春季、夏季和秋季的雷达反射率垂直分布变化不明显,而冬季主要在低层;固态降水云的垂直分布频数大值中心从春季至冬季呈"双-单"中心交替变化,且与云中-15℃频数分布变化一致;非降水云雷达反射率垂直分布没有明显的季节变化;(7)深对流云和雨层云是形成降水粒子的主要云型。     

Environmental Influences on the Intensity Change of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are examined during different stages of the lifecycle of western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs), with the intention to understand how the environment affects the intensity change of TCs in this area. It is found that the intensification usually occurs when the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) is higher than 26℃. TCs usually experience a rapid intensification when the SST is higher than 27.5℃ while lower than 29.5℃. However, TCs decay or only maintain its intensity when the SST is lower than 26℃. The intensifying TCs usually experience a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear (2-10 ms-1 ). The larger the vertical wind shear, the slower the TCs strengthen. In addition, the convective available potential energy (CAPE) is much smaller in the developing stage than in the formation stage of TCs. For the rapidly intensifying TCs, the changes of SST, CAPE, and vertical wind shear are usually small, indicating that the rapid intensification of TCs occurs when the evolution of the environment is relatively slow.     

南疆盐渍土路基盐-冻胀变形综合防治技术研究

盐渍土盐-冻胀变形对新疆南疆地区的道路路基造成了不同程度的破坏,尤其对南疆新建城市阿拉尔市和图木舒克市的城市道路造成了严重的变形破坏.根据南疆盐渍土工程性质及盐-冻胀变形试验研究结果,作者总结提出了"一个加强、两个严格、三个注重"的盐渍土路基盐-冻胀变形综合防治原则和"五步骤"综合防治技术与工程措施,在南疆阿拉尔市胜利...     

集合预报误差在GRAPES全球四维变分同化中的应用研究Ⅰ：局地化方案设计与动力平衡特征分析

通过引入流依赖的集合预报误差,使得同化分析与天气形势紧密相关,是改善初值分析质量的重要途径。文中在GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）全球四维变分资料同化（4DVar）中研究了如何有效应用集合预报误差,包括增加扩展控制变量时如何降低其计算消耗以及如何在局地化过程中保持不同变量之间的动力平衡。利用高斯分布的谱滤波实现水平局地化,利用垂直正交经验函数分解实现垂直局地化,并采用前8个主导特征模态来限制控制变量空间维数增加。引入20至180个集合样本,在水平二维局地化情形下,控制变量总数的增长可以限制在1.1—1.8倍,而在三维局地化情形下,控制变量总数的增长限制在1.7—7.1倍。对60个集合样本和1°水平分辨率内循环,4DVar引入扩展控制变量后墙钟时间增加了约30%。进一步,通过采用在非平衡分析变量上进行水平局地化,然后再将风压地转平衡关系重新叠加到非平衡分析变量上,使得分析更好地保持了风压平衡关系,初始场地面气压倾向变化减小。此外,虽然垂直局地化对分析平衡影响较大,但依靠目标函数中的数字滤波弱约束,分析变量之间仍能较好满足动力平衡关系。结果表明,GRAPES全球4DVar中发展的增加扩展控制变量、谱滤波实现水平局地化、非平衡分析变量进行水平局地化等有效应用集合预报误差的方法,适合集合样本数超过100个的情况,在分析质量改善的同时,4DVar系统的计算和存储消耗没有显著增加。      

几种地壳垂直运动分析方法的数值实验

本文结合一个实际例子,对地壳垂直运动的几种定量分析方法作了比较研究,对这些方法的适用范围及优缺点进行了讨论。     

CARBON CYCLE OF MARSH IN THE SANJIANG PLAIN

Peat~hisaprocessofbeinghelpfulfordecreasingtheincrementofopcontentintheair,whichiscausedbycombustionofdineralfuelsandhumanactivitiesinterrestrialecosystem.But,exploitingrnaxsh,eSPeCiallyPeatedtObefuels,impliesthatorgbocsubstanceaccUInulatedfroma~hereduringthepastthousandsofyearsisrapidlyOxidized.aamthemarShplaysanimPOrtantroleinthecycleofbiogaxhdristry.TheSanjiangPlainisalowplainformedbythecommonreactionoftheHeilongRiver,SonghuaherandWUSuliabover.Thetotalareais10.89X104klnZandmarsharea…     

山西地区近期垂直形变场分析

利用山西及太原地区最新的 5 0年尺度的形变资料 ,分析、研究了区域形变场及其时空演化特征 ,认为山西地堑系的垂直形变场反映出其周围山区及次级隆起主要表现为持续上升 ,盆地主要呈趋势下降的总体特征。太原地区的地面沉降主要是由超量开采地下水引起的 ,南部地区的沉降速率大于北部。地堑系内这种垂直形变场的态势 ,说明本区构造的垂直差异活动既有继承性、又有新生性的特点。