中国生产性服务业市场潜能与空间分布——基于面板工具模型的实证研究

利用2003~2012年全国285个地级及以上城市面板数据,研究了中国生产性服务业及其市场潜能的空间分布特征,并基于面板工具计量模型,实证检验了生产性服务业市场潜能对其空间分布的影响。主要结论是：① 生产性服务业主要集中在区域中心城市,且中心城市与非中心城市生产性服务业发展差距日益加大;生产性服务业市场潜能主要集中在东部沿海地区,从动态上东部地区与中西部地区生产性服务业市场潜能差距在逐渐减小;② 生产性服务业市场潜能对生产性服务业空间分布具有显著影响。分行业看,市场潜能仅对金融服务业和科技服务业的空间分布影响不显著,对商务服务业的空间分布影响最大;③ 市场潜能有效地带动了区域中心城市生产性服务业的发展,但对非中心城市生产性服务业的带动作用不明显,市场潜能没能有效地转化为真实需求。基于此,建议中国未来应提高非中心城市生产性服务业的市场潜能,带动其生产性服务业的发展,尤其是提高非中心城市的本地化专业服务水平,以满足非中心城市工业转型升级过程中受距离限制不能从中心城市获得的专业化生产服务。     

VP�ʹ�ֱ����б��У׼װ�õ����

???????????????????????У?????????????б?????У???λ??У??????10 nm??     

Estimating uncertainty associated with water stages from a single SAR image

It is the goal of remote sensing to infer information about objects or a natural process from a remote location. This invokes that uncertainty in measurement should be viewed as central to remote sensing. In this study, the uncertainty associated with water stages derived from a single SAR image for the Alzette (G.D. of Luxembourg) 2003 flood is assessed using a stepped GLUE procedure. Main uncertain input factors to the SAR processing chain for estimating water stages include geolocation accuracy, spatial filter window size, image thresholding value, DEM vertical precision and the number of river cross sections at which water stages are estimated. Initial results show that even with plausible parameter values uncertainty in water stages over the entire river reach is 2.8 m on average. Adding spatially distributed field water stages to the GLUE analysis following a one-at-a-time approach helps to considerably reduce SAR water stage uncertainty (0.6 m on average) thereby identifying appropriate value ranges for each uncertain SAR water stage processing factor. For the GLUE analysis a Nash-like efficiency criterion adapted to spatial data is proposed whereby acceptable SAR model simulations are required to outperform a simpler regression model based on the field-surveyed average river bed gradient. Weighted CDFs for all factors based on the proposed efficiency criterion allow the generation of reliable uncertainty quantile ranges and 2D maps that show the uncertainty associated with SAR-derived water stages. The stepped GLUE procedure demonstrated that not all field data collected are necessary to achieve maximum constraining. A possible efficient way to decide on relevant locations at which to sample in the field is proposed. It is also suggested that the resulting uncertainty ranges and flood extent or depth maps may be used to evaluate 1D or 2D flood inundation models in terms of water stages, depths or extents. For this, the extended GLUE approach, which copes with the presence of uncertainty in the observed data, may be adopted.     

一类非线性二阶常微分方程解的多重性

考虑一类二阶非线性常微分方程的边值问题（p（t）u′）′＋h（t）f（u）=0，0＜t＜1和u（0）=u（1）=0。通过引入f（s）／s在∞与0处的极限值，并运用打靶法和相应的Sturm比较定理得到解的多重性定理，推广有关文献中的许多重要结果。     

淮南板集煤矿F512断层导水性分析及地面注浆加固

板集煤矿F512断层落差70m,存在着导通上覆新生界松散层水与下伏太原组岩溶水的威胁,同时,断层带的破碎岩体也将对巷道掘进和支护带来困难。该矿先后施工了3个水文地质钻孔进行抽水和压水试验,根据岩心鉴定成果和岩石RQD值,认为断层带的岩心较为破碎;依据抽水过程中的流量变化、水位降深值和水位恢复值等指标及压水试验中透水率分析,发现该断层的导水性较差,具有弱渗透性。参考相邻矿区的经验,决定对断层破碎岩体采用地面注浆方法进行加固。整个工种注入水泥浆1 600m3,破碎岩体得到了有效加固,巷道掘进顺利通过了F512断层。     

Stress‐dependent hardening and failure surfaces of dry sand

During several triaxial compression experiments on plastic hardening, softening, and failure properties of dense sand specimens, it was found on various stress paths that the size of the failure surface was not constant. Instead, it changed depending on the current state of hydrostatic pressure. This finding is in contrast to the standard opinion consisting of the fact that the failure surface remains constant, once it has been reached during an experiment or in situ. In general, the behaviour of cohesionless granular‐material‐like sand is somehow characterised in between fluid and solid, where the solid behaviour results from the angle of internal friction and the confining pressure. Although the friction angle is an intrinsic material property, the confining pressure varies with the boundary conditions, thus defining different solid properties like plastic hardening, softening, and also failure. Based on our findings, it was the goal of the present contribution to introduce an improved setting for the plastic strain hardening and softening behaviour including the newly found yield properties at the limit state. For the identification of the material parameters, a complete triaxial experimental analysis of the tested sand is given. The overall elasto‐plasticity concept is validated by numerical computations of several laboratory foundation‐ and slope‐failure experiments. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with the standard concept of a constant failure surface, where the corresponding yield surfaces are understood as contours of equivalent plastic work or plastic strain. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应用GPS数据与重力数据确定大地水准面

作为GPS/重力边值问题理论及方法的应用,在对GPS/重力方法确定(似)大地水准面的原理进行简要介绍与分析的基础上,利用收集到的N区的600个GPS/重力数据和48个高精度GPS水准数据,计算出该区域的(似)大地水准面。通过拟合法和系统差直接改正法进行的精度分析表明,应用GPS/重力数据结合水准方法确定的该地区(似)大地水准面的精度达到厘米级精度。     

海坛海峡二维潮流场数值模拟

海坛海峡为南北狭长型海峡，海峡内潮波属于前进波．本文建立了平面二维浅水波数学方程，利用欧拉-拉格朗日差分方法得到数值解，模型采用随时间变化的动边界技术，成功地模拟了海坛海峡的前进波特征，并根据实测数据进行了验证．同时计算了同潮时线和等振幅线，不同时刻的潮流场和潮流平均流速分布．计算结果表明，北部湾口M2分潮高潮时间比南部湾口早约5～6min，等振幅线范围约为2．12～2．15m．海峡内流速分布呈南北强、中间弱的特点，最大流速1m／s左右．     

滹沱河流域本底状态地表水氮、磷非点源污染评价

通过对滹沱河流域各支流源头区地表水中氮、磷浓度监测分析,得出本底状态下总氮浓度为0.223～5.631 mg/L,氨氮浓度范围为未检出～0.634 mg/L,可溶态氮浓度为0.190～5.532 mg/L,总磷浓度为0.024～0.683 mg/L,可溶态磷浓度为0.026～0.220 mg/L.本底状态下各水文期氮的非点源污染形态都以可溶态氮为主;磷的非点源污染形态枯水期以可溶态磷居多,丰水期以颗粒态磷为主.滹沱河流域本底状态下氮、磷非点源污染水平较高.