A look at global seismicity during 1999 in the longer-term time frame

An analysis and discussion of the main features and effects of the 1999global seismicity based especially on the inferred patterns of strong(M_w 7) earthquakes using NEIC/USGS data is presented.Based on the above data and their statistical features (see also Table 1)one may state that from the point of view of occurrence rate (number/yr)the 1999 global seismicity was fairly regular, but from the moment (orenergy) release standpoint it is well under the long-term average. The spacepartition was again rather typical and time distribution was quasi-Poissonian,noteworthy, the 1999 worldwide seismicity had an anomalously high deathtoll, to be discussed later. Two main new insights are brought by ouranalysis: (i) a (mega)quiescence along the whole south American segmentof circum-Pacific earthquake belt, which was inferred and rated asanomalous while it was underway and which, in retrospect, ended with thegreat (M_w = 8.4 HRV) 2001 Arequipa (Peru) event; (ii) an intriguingmonotonous rate decrease within only magnitude class 5.0 to 5.9 duringthe analyzed period (i.e., 1990–1999).     

Statistical Revision of the Moment Method

The moment method is a well known technique, which uses a time series ofthe first 3 moments of a spectral line, to estimate the (discrete) modeparameters and m. The method, contrary to Doppler imaging,also yields other interesting(real-valued) parameters such as the inclination angle i, or v sin i,during its identification procedure.In this paper, we are not only interested in the estimation of thesereal-valued parameters themselves but also inreliable estimates for their uncertainty.We designed a statistical formalism for the moment method based on theso-called generalized estimating equations (GEE). This formalismaims to estimate the uncertainty of the real-valued parameters taking intoaccount that the different moments of a line profile are correlated and –more importantly – that the uncertainty of the observed moments depends onthe pulsation parameters. The latter property of the moment method makesthe least-squares technique a poor choice to estimate the uncertainty ofthe real-valued parameters. We implemented the GEE method and presentan application to a high-resolution spectroscopic dataset of the slowly pulsating B star HD181558.     

Temporal variations of the polar moment of inertia and the second-degree geopotential

In order to study the geodynamic behaviour of the Earth over short (elastic Earth) and long (almost perfectly liquid Earth) geological periodic variations, the changes of the moment of inertia are decomposed into two parts: the first, described by a volume integral, explains the effect of the density variations, while the second gives the impact of the surface variations using a surface integral. It is shown that both components have physical significance, but their contribution is different in case of short (lunisolar) and long (connected to secular despinning) periods.     

华北地区大地震矩释放率和GPS应变率的一致性研究

GPS测量技术可以在较大地区范围内获得高精度地壳形变速率。稳定的应变速率提供了精确确定地震活动率的机会。本文运用Kostrov(1974)的公式将经平滑的华北地区应变速率转化为矩释放率，并与运用1303年洪洞地震以来的地震目录计算的矩释放率进行比较，发现两者之比南北向为60．6％，东西向为68．9％，北东剪切分量为104．1％。近似为1的比率表明了GPS测量结果的可靠性。这个结果对结合历史地震及大地形变测量估计矩释放进行地震危险性评估具有一定参考意义。     

Moment tensor inversion and source rupture process of the September 27, 2003 M S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia

We conducted moment tensor inversion and studied source rupture process for M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia on September 27 2003, by using digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network. Considering the aftershock distribution and the tectonic settings around the epicentral area, we propose that the M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred on a fault plane with the strike of 127°, the dip of 79° and the rake of 171°. The rupture process inversion result of M _S=7.9 earthquake shows that the total rupture duration is about 37 s, the scalar moment tensor is M ₀=0.97×10²⁰ N·m. Rupture mainly occurred on the shallow area with 110 km long and 30 km wide, the location in which the rupture initiated is not where the main rupture took place, and the area with slip greater than 0.5 m basically lies within 35 km deep middle-crust under the earth surface. The maximum static slip is 3.6 m. There are two distinct areas with slip larger than 2.0 m. We noticed that when the rupture propagated towards northwest and closed to the area around the M _S=7.3 hypocenter, the slip decreased rapidly, which may indicate that the rupture process was stopped by barriers. The consistence of spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane with the distribution of aftershocks also supports that the rupture is a heterogeneous process owing to the presence of barriers.     

he dependence of response spectrum on the tectonic ambient shear stress field

It has been analyzed the influence of the tectonic ambient shear stress value on response spectrum based on the previous theory. Based on the prediction equation BJF94 presented by the famous American researchers, CLB20, a new prediction formula is proposed by us, where it is introduced the influence of tectonic ambient shear stress value on response spectrum. BJF94 is the prediction equation, which mainly depends on strong ground motion data from western USA, while the prediction equation SEA99 is based on the strong ground motion data from extensional region all over the world. Comparing these two prediction equations in detail, it is found that after BJF94's prediction value lg(Y) minus 0.16 logarithmic units, the value is very close to SEA99's one. This case demonstrates that lg(Y) in extensional region is smaller; the differences of prediction equation are mainly owe to the differences of tectonic ambient shear stress value. If the factor of tectonic ambient shear stress value is included into the prediction equation, and the magnitude is used seismic moment magnitude to express, which is universal used around the world, and the distance is used the distance of fault project, which commonly used by many people, then regional differences of prediction equation will become much less, even vanish, and it can be constructed the universal prediction equation proper to all over the world. The error in the earthquake-resistant design in China will be small if we directly use the results of response spectrum of USA (e.g. BJF94 or SEA99).     

The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M _W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M _W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes. Foundation item: Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406). Contribution No. 05FE3010, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration.