沿海滩涂围垦区土地生产潜力模型构建与应用——以江苏省如东县为例

沿海淤泥质滩涂是中国重要的耕地后备资源之一,滩涂围垦新增的大量耕地资源的生产潜力能反映滩涂土壤粮食安全保障能力大小。本文以江苏省如东县滩涂围垦区为例,在现有的光温水气候生产潜力模型的基础上,引进基础地力贡献率和盐分限制因子作为土壤有效性系数,构建沿海地区土地生产潜力模型,并通过水稻和小麦产量对模型结果进行初步验证。研究表明：该模型具有一定可行性。滩涂围垦区水稻产量土壤基础地力贡献率为55%~59%;小麦基础地力贡献率为50%~80%。未脱盐的1982年滩涂围垦区水稻和小麦产量受到盐分阻碍的系数分别为0.73和1.00。2007年垦区由于盐分太高不能种植水稻,小麦产量受到盐分阻碍系数为0.35。未脱盐的1982年滩涂垦区土壤基础地力修正后的水稻和小麦土地生产潜力分别为12235.84和6502.23 kg/hm²;土壤盐分修正后的土地生产潜力分别为15677.42和10329.39 kg/hm²;土壤基础地力和盐分共同修正后的土地水稻和小麦生产潜力分别为8934.97和6502.23 kg/hm²。与实地调查的水稻产量(9750 kg/hm²)和小麦生产潜力(6000 kg/hm²)相比,目前土地生产力远小于盐分限制下的土地生产潜力,与基础地力和盐分双重限制下的土地生产潜力接近,改善土壤施肥技术可以进一步提高土地生产力。     

志愿者民航客机夜光遥感方法与数据验证

夜光遥感是遥感技术一个活跃的分支,能够反映人类社会活动的痕迹。在城市监测、经济参数评估、重大事件评估等方面有着独特的优势。近年来夜光数据的应用不断拓展,这对传统的卫星夜光遥感数据提出了更高的要求。本文基于大众遥感、志愿者遥感理念,提出了一种夜光遥感数据获取的新方法——民航客机遥感（PARS）。以长沙市为研究区域获取PARS夜光遥感影像,并将所得数据与传统卫星遥感数据作对比。结果表明,PARS捕获的夜光遥感数据在分辨率、波段及时效性上比传统方式表现得更为优秀,是一种低成本、灵活及多样化的遥感数据获取方式,具有很大的发展潜力。     

利用GLAS激光测高数据评估DSM产品质量及精度优化

提出了一种利用卫星激光测高数据直接优化提升数字表面模型（DSM）产品精度的方法。选取境外中亚地区的资源三号DSM开展试验,通过采用多准则约束方法提取激光高程控制点,分别利用偏度、中值、线性、二次多项式等进行DSM误差修正,发现4种模型均能有效消除DSM系统误差,其中基于二次多项式的方法更适用于平地和丘陵地貌,线性模型更适用于高山地貌。试验验证了采用卫星激光测高数据优化境外DSM技术流程的可行性,最终可提高DSM的绝对高程精度。     

A PRELIMINARY VALIDATION STUDY OF THE SEASONAL FORECAST OF CCCMA MODEL OVER CHINA

In this study we validate the raw ensemble mean forecasts of the CCCma's GCM2 modelagainst surface temperature and precipitation data obtained from 160 Chinese stations.It is foundthat despite the lagre biases,the model was able to produce seasonal anomalies that haveproperties that are reasonably close to those that are observed.This anomaly is the quantity ofinterest when forecasting seasonal climatic conditions.The root mean squared difference(RMSD)between the forecast and observed anomaly leads us to be modestly optimistic about the prospectsfor using dynamical models to forecast the interannual variability of some meteorological elements.The correlation analysis of the forecast and observation also supports the result given by theRMSD analysis and provides a tool for identify the forecast confidence level in various regions,     

旋翼无人机盐城试验观测资料分析及其在一次浓雾天气观测中的应用

2018年3月28—30日、6月20—26日和9月5—13日在江苏省盐城市射阳站开展了旋翼无人机大气边界层垂直结构观测试验,并与L波段雷达探空资料进行对比,验证无人机观测资料精度。结果表明无人机观测的温度、相对湿度、风向、风速廓线与探空观测资料具有较好的一致性。二者温度、相对湿度的相关系数均为0.98,温度绝对偏差为0.57℃,相对湿度绝对偏差为4.25%,风向相关系数为0.98,绝对偏差为11.5°,二者风速的相关系数为0.91,绝对偏差为1.88 m·s~(-1),且无人机探测的风速为对应高度上的瞬时风速,可以更好地反映出边界层内风速细节变化特征。试验期间,无人机观测到一次夏季浓雾过程边界层结构细致变化特征,其观测的雾的边界层结构特征和宏观特征与探空观测基本一致。验证结果表明无人机在边界层气象观测中具有很好的应用前景。     

High‐resolution seismic monitoring of instrumented buildings using a model‐based state observer

This paper proposes a model‐based state observer to perform high‐definition response estimation in partially instrumented building structures. The proposed estimator is verified in a simulated five‐story shear‐building structure and validated using measurements from a seven‐story reinforced concrete building slice tested at the NEES‐University of California at San Diego shake table. In both cases the proposed estimator yielded satisfactory results by estimating the time history of shear forces, bending moments, displacements, and strains at various points/sections of interest. The proposed algorithm can be used in instrumented buildings for various practical applications such as post‐earthquake damage assessment, structural control, and building code calibration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

东亚地区Younger Dryas气候突变的数值模拟研究

YoungerDryas(YD)气候突变事件是近两万年中一次全球性的气候急剧变冷事件。文章试图在东亚地区YD事件的若干证据基础上,从海洋、冰盖和大气的热力学以及动力学角度出发,利用气候模拟方法就东亚地区YD气候突变的机制和一些成因假说进行敏感性试验。模拟结果表明,因淡水通量异常引起的海洋表面温度降低是YD形成的直接原因。海洋大气耦合作用对于YD传播强度及时间不同步具有重要作用。除北大西洋淡水通量异常的作用外,南半球海洋的淡水通量异常可能对东亚地区的YD事件有着更重要的贡献。海洋耦合大气环流模式模拟表明,东亚与欧洲降温具有不同步性,最大变化速率欧洲达到-0.122℃/a,东亚地区为-0.067℃/a。模拟结果与东亚地区YD时期的气候记录在特征上能够进行对比,反映了模拟试验的边界和强迫条件的设计接近东亚古气候状况,因而模拟结果对分析海洋、冰盖和大气的热力学以及动力学探讨揭示YD气候事件的物理机制和动力原因具有可靠的依据。     

基于系留气艇平台的红外辐射传输算法实验验证

中国科学院大气物理研究所中层大气和全球环境探测重点实验室 (LAGEO) 建立了以系留气艇为平台的综合探测系统。通过气艇在大气边界层上升、下降过程获得不同高度的气象参数和同时的辐射参数。以气象参数为输入,应用辐射传输模式 (MODTRAN4.0) 获得模式辐射输出,将其与实测辐射值作对比,验证MODTRAN4.0模式的准确性,为有关目标识别与遥感提供基础。2006年8月在中国科学院大气物理研究所香河综合观测站利用系留气艇平台进行了验证实验,并对热红外波段的模式对比结果进行分析。结果表明:所建实验系统具备进行模式验证的能力,在热红外波段,MODTRAN4.0模式输出结果与实测辐射亮度之间的相对误差的均方差在边界层大气条件下小于3%。     

FY2海面温度产品质量检验方法与误差分析

主要介绍了风云二号静止气象卫星海面温度产品的质量检验方法及检验流程,给出了FY2E业务海面温度产品和FY2F海面温度算法的质量检验结果,并从误差统计、反演算法、系统设计等方面分析了目前FY2海面温度产品与国外卫星海面温度产品差异大的原因。现场海面温度质量检验和分析场海面温度交叉检验各有优缺点。现场海面温度质量检验能够对FY2 SST产品给于客观的评价。国外分析场海面温度具有时效性好、全球覆盖且质量均一的优点,分析场海面温度交叉检验能满足FY2 SST质量检验的时效性,是对FY2 SST的相对检验。通过静止卫星海面温度产品质量检验信息可以为产品研发人员和相关用户提供参考。     

Performance of a Reconfigured Atmospheric General Circulation Model at Low Resolution

Paleoclimate simulations usually require model runs over a very long time.The fast integration version of a state-of-the-art general circulation model (GCM),which shares the same physical and dynamical processes but with reduced horizontal resolution and increased time step,is usually developed.In this study,we configure a fast version of an atmospheric GCM (AGCM),the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (Institute of Atmospheric Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics),at low resolution (GAMIL-L,hereafter),and compare the simulation results with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and other data to examine its performance.GAMIL-L,which is derived from the original GAMIL,is a finite difference AGCM with 72×40 grids in longitude and latitude and 26 vertical levels.To validate the simulated climatology and variability,two runs were achieved.One was a 60-year control run with fixed climatological monthly sea surface temperature (SST) forcing,and the other was a 50-yr (1950-2000) integration with observational time-varying monthly SST forcing.Comparisons between these two cases and the reanalysis,including intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability are also presented.In addition,the differences between GAMIL-L and the original version of GAMIL are also investigated. The results show that GAMIL-L can capture most of the large-scale dynamical features of the atmosphere, especially in the tropics and mid latitudes,although a few deficiencies exist,such as the underestimated Hadley cell and thereby the weak strength of the Asia summer monsoon.However,the simulated mean states over high latitudes,especially over the polar regions,are not acceptable.Apart from dynamics,the thermodynamic features mainly depend upon the physical parameterization schemes.Since the physical package of GAMIL-L is exactly the same as the original high-resolution version of GAMIL,in which the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) physical package was used,there are only small differences between them in the precipitation and temperature fields.Because our goal is to develop a fast-running AGCM and employ it in the coupled climate system model of IAP/LASG for paleoclimate studies such as ENSO and Australia-Asia monsoon,particular attention has been paid to the model performances in the tropics.More model validations,such as those ran for the Southern Oscillation and South Asia monsoon, indicate that GAMIL-L is reasonably competent and valuable in this regard.