On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

Static and dynamic response of massive caisson foundations with soil and interface nonlinearities—validation and results

The static, cyclic, and dynamic response of a massive caisson foundation embedded in nonlinear layered or inhomogeneous soil and loaded at its top is investigated. The caisson is supported against horizontal displacement and rotation by four types of inelastic springs and dashpots, described with the BWGG model that was developed in the preceding companion paper [Gerolymos N, Gazetas G. Development of winkler model for static and dynamic response of caisson foundations with soil and interface nonlinearities. Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, submitted companion paper]. The prediction of the model is satisfactorily compared with results from 3D-finite element analysis. Some experimental corroboration of the method is provided with the help of a 1/3-scale lateral load test that had been conducted in the field by EPRI. An illustrative example of a caisson embedded in linearly-inhomogeneous clay and subjected to static and dynamic loading is analysed. Characteristic results are presented highlighting the role of soil inelasticity and its interplay with the two dominant interface nonlinearities: separation (gapping) of the caisson shaft from the surrounding soil, and uplifting of the base from the underlying soil.     

Earthquake catalogues and modelling strategies. A new testing procedure for the comparison between competing models

In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F _M (F _M generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F _M generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F _M in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F _M in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F _M generators. We show that a simple empirical F _M generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F _M ^X generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F _M ^X generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F _M ^X generator.     

A microscale three-dimensional urban energy balance model for studying surface temperatures

A microscale three-dimensional (3-D) urban energy balance model, Temperatures of Urban Facets in 3-D (TUF-3D), is developed to predict urban surface temperatures for a variety of surface geometries and properties, weather conditions, and solar angles. The surface is composed of plane-parallel facets: roofs, walls, and streets, which are further sub-divided into identical square patches, resulting in a 3-D raster-type model geometry. The model code is structured into radiation, conduction and convection sub-models. The radiation sub-model uses the radiosity approach and accounts for multiple reflections and shading of direct solar radiation. Conduction is solved by finite differencing of the heat conduction equation, and convection is modelled by empirically relating patch heat transfer coefficients to the momentum forcing and the building morphology. The radiation and conduction sub-models are tested individually against measurements, and the complete model is tested against full-scale urban surface temperature and energy balance observations. Modelled surface temperatures perform well at both the facet-average and the sub-facet scales given the precision of the observations and the uncertainties in the model inputs. The model has several potential applications, such as the calculation of radiative loads, and the investigation of effective thermal anisotropy (when combined with a sensor-view model).     

利用GCV优化的正则化方法对硬X射线望远镜图象重建研究

图象重建是一个求逆过程具有不适定性。本文介绍的是一种从少数投影数据进行图象重建的线性代数法－Ｐｈｉｌｌｉｐｓ－Ｔｉｋｈｏｎｏｖ正则化方法,同时选择优化工具ＧＣＶ确定最优的正则参数。为验证该方法,我们对日本Ｙｏｈｋｏｈ卫星上塔载的硬Ｘ射线望远镜（ＨＸＴ）拍摄的太阳图象进行重建。     

Development in modeling cyclic loading of sands based on kinematic hardening

In this paper, there is presented an elastoplastic constitutive model to predict sandy soils behavior under monotonic and cyclic loadings. This model is based on an existing model (Cambou‐Jafari‐Sidoroff) that takes into account deviatoric and isotropic mechanisms of plasticity. The flow rule used in the deviatoric mechanism is non‐associated and a mixed hardening law controls the evolution of the yield surface. In this research the critical state surface and history surface, which separates the virgin and cyclic states in stress space, are defined. Kinematic hardening modulus and stress–dilatancy law for monotonic and cyclic loadings are effectively modified. With taking hardening modulus as a function of deviatoric and volumetric plastic strain and with defining the history surface and stress reversal, the model has the ability to predict the sandy soils' behavior. All of the model parameters have clear physical meanings and can be determined from usual laboratory tests. In order to validate the model, the results of homogeneous tests on Hostun and Toyoura sands are used. The results of validation show a good capability of the proposed model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of SARAL/AltiKa Wave Height Measurements Relative to Buoy,Jason-2, and Cryosat-2 Data

SARAL/AltiKa GDR-T are analyzed to assess the quality of the significant wave height (SWH) measurements. SARAL along-track SWH plots reveal cases of erroneous data, more or less isolated, not detected by the quality flags. The anomalies are often correlated with strong attenuation of the Ka-band backscatter coefficient, sensitive to clouds and rain. A quality test based on the 1 Hz standard deviation is proposed to detect such anomalies. From buoy comparison, it is shown that SARAL SWH is more accurate than Jason-2, particularly at low SWH, and globally does not require any correction. Results are better with open ocean than with coastal buoys. The scatter and the number of outliers are much larger for coastal buoys. SARAL is then compared with Jason-2 and Cryosat-2. The altimeter data are extracted from the global altimeter SWH Ifremer data base, including specific corrections to calibrate the various altimeters. The comparison confirms the high quality of SARAL SWH. The 1 Hz standard deviation is much less than for Jason-2 and Cryosat-2, particularly at low SWH. Furthermore, results show that the corrections applied to Jason-2 and to Cryosat-2, in the data base, are efficient, improving the global agreement between the three altimeters.     

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Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.     

A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.