基于新型探测资料对西安一次弱降水预报失误的原因分析

利用微波辐射计、激光测风雷达、多普勒雷达、相控阵雷达等新型探测资料、地面加密观测资料、ERA5再分析及多模式数值预报结果对2022年4月24日西安城区一次弱降水预报出现明显失误的原因进行分析,结果表明：(1)全球数值预报模式和中尺度数值预报模式对本次过程西安城区均报有明显降水,主要原因为模式对低层相对湿度预报明显偏大;(2)多种新型探测数据分析认为近地层湿度条件较差及中层的绝对水汽含量低,中层的干暖空气不利于成云致雨,垂直上升运动不强,且由于低层非常干燥,使水滴在下沉过程中蒸发,从而无法形成雨滴下落,这些原因共同造成西安城区无降水,低层相对湿度预报偏大是造成这次西安城区降水预报失误的主要原因之一;(3)造成西安城区近地层湿度条件差的原因是城市干热岛效应和低层干暖平流输送,且降水云团翻越秦岭后其湿空气绝热下沉至城区后出现增温降湿,使得城区形成较为深厚的干层,即使有雨滴在下落过程中也会造成更强的蒸发,这也是城区没有降水的重要原因之一;(4)预报员主观预报订正出现空报主要是源于对边界层水汽、抬升条件等关键降水要素缺乏订正能力,且对大城市的干热岛效应和秦岭山区地形影响研究不足。     

Urban three-dimensional expansion and its driving forces —A case study of Shanghai, China

Urban expansion is a phenomenon of urban space increase, and an important measuring index of the process of urbanization. Taking Shanghai as an example, the changes of urban average height and built-up area were studied to represent city’s vertical and horizontal increases respectively, and statistical methods were used to analyze the driving forces of urban expansion. The research drew following conclusions: 1) The urban expansion process of Shanghai from 1985 to 2006 had a clear periodic feature, and could be divided into three stages: vertical expansion in dominance, coordinated vertical and horizontal expansion, and horizontal expansion in dominance. 2) The average height and quantity of buildings in core city were significantly bigger than those in suburbs, but the changing speed of the latter was faster. And 3) urbanization process was the major driving force for the city’s horizontal expansion, while industrial structure improvement was the key driving factor for the vertical expansion. Those two driving forces were simultaneously affected by city’s political factors.     

The protoliths to the sillimanite gneisses from the Larsemann Hills and geological implication in their formation

The source rock from which the sillimanite gneisses derive mainly was the biotite plagioclase gneiss in the Larsemann Hills. It is the deformation-metamorphism process under special pressure and temperature condition, not the original rock compositions, that controls the presence of sillimanite. To a great degree, the sillimanite gneiss was the mixture of the detaining materials of the migrating felsic melt from the bt-plagioclase gneiss that underwent partial melting and the relics when the melt was removed. In sillimanitization the original rock had been changed substantially in chemical composition. The related metamorphism process severely deviated from the isochemical series, the process was of, therefore, an open system. In addition, the Al2O3 contents of the original rock was an important, but not critical factor for the formation of sillimanite, i.e., the sillimanite-bearing rock need not be of aluminum rich in composition, and vise contrarily, the aluminum rock may not produce sillimanite. The authors of the present paper postulate that the source rock from which the aluminum rich rock derives need not be of aluminum rich, but sillimanitization is generally the Al2O3 increasing process. The aluminum rich sediments such as clay or shale need not correspond directly to sillimanite-rich gneisses. No argillaceous rock present equals to sillimanite-rich gneiss in chemical composition. The protoliths to the sillimanite gneisses from the Larsemann Hills, east Antarctica, and their adjacent area may be pelite, shale greywacke, sub-greywacke, quartz sandstone and quartz-tourmalinite. If correct, the conclusion will be of significant implication for the determination of the sillimanite gneiss formation process and the reconstruction of the protolith setting.     

Relict sand dredging for beach nourishment in the central Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy): effects on benthic assemblages

The aim of this study is to analyse the effects in space and time of relict sand-dredging activities on macrobenthic assemblages, in an area situated offshore Montalto di Castro (central Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy), and to analyse the recolonisation processes of macrobenthos in the dredged areas. The area in question is characterised by relict sand deposits (Holocenic paleo-beaches), used for beach nourishment along the Latium coast. The effects of sand extraction on benthic assemblages were investigated before, during and after three dredging operations. The sites analysed are located within the dredged areas (inside stations) and in neighbouring, not dredged, areas (outside stations). The results showed that the impact of sand extraction was confined to the dredged stations and to the areas in proximity to the dredged areas. During dredging activities, the structure of benthic assemblages within the impacted stations was characterised by low species richness and diversity. Both the direct removal of sediment and the re-suspension and consequent deposition of fine sediment affected benthic assemblages of the impacted stations. A few months after the dredgings, a recolonisation process was still observed at all the impacted stations. A gradual recolonisation process was observed at those stations affected by only one dredging, whereas a different recolonisation was observed at those stations affected by two dredgings over time. This study suggests that differences of re-colonisation processes of benthic assemblages are related to the intensity of dredging operations in terms of dredging frequency.     

计算机串口记时延迟的测量与分析

动态测量中,需要记录观测量的观测时刻,时刻作为测量的基本观测量,需要较高的计时精度,通过串口利用计算机计时是一种便捷可行的方法,但串口的时延是必须要考虑的因素。本文介绍了计算机串口计时的原理及影响其时延的相关因素,阐述了进行时延测量的方法,并通过实验对影响串口时延的5种因素进行了相应的测试和分析,实验结果表明,通常情况下串口时延在毫秒级,通过提高计时程序优先级的方法可成功将时延减小至0.35m s以内;低动态条件下串口时延对动态测量的影响较小,在某些检测设备中甚至可以忽略。     

GIS数据质量控制技术在地籍数据库建设中的应用

对GIS数据质量控制技术在地籍数据建库中的应用进行了研究,在地籍数据库建设质量控制实践中综合运用了过程控制法和软件检查法,有效地控制地籍建库各个阶段的精度,保证最终成果满足设计要求。     

Numerical calculation of free-surface potential flow around a ship using the modified Rankine source panel method

A modified Rankine source panel method is presented for solving a linearized free-surface flow problem with respect to the double-body potential. The method of solution is based on the distribution of Rankine sources on the hull as well as its image and on the free surface. An iterative algorithm is used for determining the free surface and wave resistance using upstream finite difference operator. A verification of numerical modeling is made using the Wigley hull and the validity of the computer program is examined by comparing the details of wave profiles and wave making resistance with Series 60 model.     

Seasonality and duration in extreme value distributions of significant wave height

This paper presents a statistical model to characterize the long-term extreme value distribution of significant wave height, conditioning to the duration of the storm and accounting for seasonality. A time-dependent version of the peak over threshold (POT) approach is used to build the model, which is then applied to specific reanalysis time series and NOAA buoy records. The model considers the annual and semiannual cycles which are parameterized in terms of harmonic functions. The inclusion of seasonal variabilities substantially reduces the residuals of the fitted model. The information obtained in this study can be useful to design maritime works, because (a) the model improves the understanding of the variability of extreme wave climate along a year and (b) the model accounts for the duration of the storm, which is a key parameter in several formulations for rubble mound breakwater design.     

巴拿马海道关闭及其古海洋和古气候影响

位于中关洲的巴拿马海道曾是连通赤道东太平洋和大西洋的开放洋流通道。从中新世开始,巴拿马海道在构造运动的驱动下逐步关闭,切断了赤道太平洋和大西洋海水的直接交流。海道的关闭不仅改变了太平洋和大西洋海水的物理性质和洋流模式,还可能对新生代中晚期气候变化,特别是北半球大冰期的开始有重要作用。简要综述了二十余年来围绕巴拿马海道关闭及其古海洋、古气候意义方面的研艽成果和最新研究进展。很多相关的问题目前仍处于激烈的争论之中或尚未得到充分的认识,亟待开展进一步工作。开展相关研究将对促进我国古海洋和古气候研究具有积极意义,并有助于进一步加深我们对于海洋一气候系统的认识。     

Designation of marine protected areas in Belgium: A legal and ecological success?

In Belgium a long process (1999–2005) led to the designation of several marine protected areas (MPAs). In order to analyse the designation process, the ‘policy arrangement approach’ was used as an analytical tool. Attention was given to four dimensions (actors and coalitions, arguments, rules and resources). Particular attention was paid to the switch from an authoritative to a more deliberated policy style in reaction to conflicts with stakeholders. This switch in policy style contributed to a successful legal designation, but does not guarantee the best protection of marine biodiversity. This case study linked science (setting ecological goals) to policy (analysis of a policy process) and led to some more general conclusions on the designation of MPAs and the role of participation in this process.