Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

Moveout approximation for horizontal transversely isotropic and vertical transversely isotropic layered medium. Part I: 1D ray propagation‡

Anisotropy in subsurface geological models is primarily caused by two factors: sedimentation in shale/sand layers and fractures. The sedimentation factor is mainly modelled by vertical transverse isotropy (VTI), whereas the fractures are modelled by a horizontal transversely isotropic medium (HTI). In this paper we study hyperbolic and non‐hyperbolic normal reflection moveout for a package of HTI/VTI layers, considering arbitrary azimuthal orientation of the symmetry axis at each HTI layer. We consider a local 1D medium, whose properties change vertically, with flat interfaces between the layers. In this case, the horizontal slowness is preserved; thus, the azimuth of the phase velocity is the same for all layers of the package. In general, however, the azimuth of the ray velocity differs from the azimuth of the phase velocity. The ray azimuth depends on the layer properties and may be different for each layer. In this case, the use of the Dix equation requires projection of the moveout velocity of each layer on the phase plane. We derive an accurate equation for hyperbolic and high‐order terms of the normal moveout, relating the traveltime to the surface offset, or alternatively, to the subsurface reflection angle. We relate the azimuth of the surface offset to its magnitude (or to the reflection angle), considering short and long offsets. We compare the derived approximations with analytical ray tracing.     

震后经济损失及人员伤亡快速预估方法

为快速了解破坏性地震发生后建筑物破坏所造成的人员伤亡和经济损失,合理投入救灾所需人、财、物,便于领导决策和指挥,提出震后经济损失和人员伤亡快速预估方法。依据地震发生的基本参数、地震地质条件等预估灾害范围、建筑物破坏程度、经济损失、人员伤亡等情况,给出地震发生早期影响尺度的快速预测结果。     

Numerical investigation of the orbit of Interball‐1

We investigated the motion of the Earth's artificial satellite Interball‐1 by using a method suitable for the computation of large eccentricity orbits. Though the measured and the computed orbital elements differ from each other within the measured error bound, we found a slight tendency for secular decreasing in the semi‐major axis, caused probably by electromagnetic drag. We analysed the dominant role of the Moon in the variations of the orbital eccentricity, leading to zero perigee height and the end of the lifetime of the satellite. (© 2007 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

新疆萨尔布拉克金矿床地球化学特征研究及找矿信息提取

通过对新疆萨尔布拉克金矿床的地化元素统计特征和元素组合沿含矿地质体的走向、倾向及垂向上的空间分布变化特征的研究,说明了Au在成矿过程中的复杂性,指出了现今开采矿体为原矿体的中下部及Au的近矿指示元素组合,总结了矿区内成矿的有利部位和矿体的空间分布特征,为矿体的定位预测工作提供了依据.     

New Investigation on the Space Group of Chevkinite

Chevkinite specimen from a rare-earth mineral deposit in Sichuan,southwest ofChina have been studied in detail by means of transmission electron microscope(TEM).The selected area electron diffraction(SAED)and convergent beam electron diffraction(CBED)patterns,obtained from different crystal zone axis direction,proved coineidently that the space group of chevkinite is C2/m.Fringe lattice image obser-vation showed the mineral crystal is structurally uniform in microscale,and it is anideal specimen for electron diffraction analysis.The mineral studied here is similar to theone from Bayan Obo,Inner Mongolia,China,in chemical composition and REE distri-bution.The chemical formula of the crystal is(Ce,La,…,Ca)_4 Fe~2-(Fe,Ti,Nb)_2O_8 (Si_2O_7)_2 .From our study,we come to the conclusion that the space group of the natu-ral chevkinite is C2/m,instead of P2_1/a as synthetic one.Up to now,chevkinitecompositionally similar to the synthetic one,in which the complete replacements of Ce,La by Nd and Fe by Mg or Co o     

东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链简介

“东半球空间环境地基综合监测子午链”（简称子午工程）是我国空间科学领域开工建设的第一个国家重大基础设施项目。子午工程利用沿东半球120°E子午线附近和北纬30°N附近的15个综合性观测台站,运用无线电、地磁、光学和探空火箭等多种探测手段,连续监测地球表面20—30km以上到几百公里的中高层大气、电离层和磁层,以及十几个地球半径以外的行星际的空间环境参数。它将为我国各类用户提供完整、连续、可靠的多学科、多层次的空间环境地基综合监测数据。子午工程总投资1．67亿元,建设期3年,子午工程整体科学寿命预计超过11年。     

基于双重逆极限空间的地貌信息数据挖掘方法

为了挖掘不完备的地貌数据信息,将地貌信息描述为拓扑空间的形式,从逆极限定义出发,利用映射诱导法建立与原地貌信息空间拓扑同构的双重逆极限空间作为目标信息空间,然后利用拓扑传递性分析原地貌信息空间与目标信息空间的拓扑相似度,实现不完备的地貌信息空间数据挖掘.本文利用GIS软件,结合地貌的坡度、坡向等地貌特征因子分别模拟了地貌信息数据挖掘前后的模型并进行了对比,结果表明此方法是可行的.     

建（构）筑物的变形控制指标

城市轨道交通和其他市政地下工程建设难免造成周边建（构）筑物的变形,确定建（构）筑物的变形控制指标是进行安全监测和控制的基础。总结目前建（构）筑物控制的各类变形参数,对其定量化研究成果进行归纳,根据收集的大量变形监测资料,划分建（构）筑物的变形损坏等级,对其沉降、差异沉降和倾斜等常规监测项目进行重点分析,并研究了建筑尺寸和变形量、损坏等级的关系。研究结果表明,砂土地层独立柱基的建筑易于产生变形破坏,应防止建筑过量沉降引起的其他变形损坏;建（构）筑物的角变量小于0.002时一般未出现较大影响;建筑尺寸影响变形的大小,应密切关注易于出现变形损坏的多层、高层建筑。