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81.
本文从最大后验概率密度观点出发,在数据噪音向量和待求模型向量为具有零均值的独立高斯随机过程的假设前提下,建立起了随机反演的非线性系统方程;给出了模型方差估计的函数表达式,并在文章最后,证明了反演解的稀疏性,即解释了随机反演的输出解的高分辨率特征。文章在最小二乘反演方法的基础上,发展并完善了随机反演方法的理论基础;揭示了随机反演方法与最小二乘反演方法之间的本质区别;阐述了随机反演方法的优越性,并指出了其广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
82.
H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331
The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein
as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure,
reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of
the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty
introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the
essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic
input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.
Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable,
consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify
the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables.
As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of
frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996 相似文献
83.
Zhou Cuiying Wang Hongwei Wang Mei and Zhang YuxiaSeismological Bureau of Shandong Province Jinan China Center for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1997,(4)
In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given. 相似文献
84.
K. -C. Yeh J. -C. Yang Y. -K. Tung 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(2):173-192
Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic
model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated
with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features
associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate
that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored. 相似文献
85.
Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic
model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated
with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features
associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate
that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored. 相似文献
86.
建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考 总被引:7,自引:3,他引:7
金德山 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):101-103
结合工作实践,就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则,评估区环境条件分析深度的把握,现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点,土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准,提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。 相似文献
87.
A processing strategy and the corresponding software architecture for the processing of GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) observables is presented and described, with the major objective to compute a high-accuracy, high-resolution spherical harmonic model of the Earth's gravity field. The combination of two numerical solution strategies, i.e. the rigorous solution of the corresponding large normal equation systems applying parallel processing (on a PC cluster) as the core solver, and the fast semianalytic approach as a quick-look gravity field analysis (QL-GFA) tool, is proposed. Such a method fusion benefits from the advantages of the individual components: the rigorous inversion of the system providing also the full variance-covariance information, and the quickness enabling the consecutive production of intermediate gravity field solutions, for the purpose to analyse partial and incomplete data sets and to derive a diagnosis of the performance of the GOCE measurement system. The functionality and operability of the individual components are demonstrated in the framework of a closed loop simulation, which is based on a realistic mission scenario both in terms of the orbit configuration and the coloured measuring noise. Special concern is given to the accuracy of the recovered coefficients, the numerical behaviour, the required computing time, and the particular role of the individual modules within the processing chain. In the case of the core solver, it is demonstrated that the assembling and rigorous solution of large normal equation systems can be handled by using Beowulf clusters within a reasonable computing time. The application of the quick-look tool to partial data sets with short-term data gaps is demonstrated on the basis of several case studies. Additionally, the spectral analysis of the residuals of the adjustment is presented as a valuable tool for the verification of the noise characteristics of the GOCE gradiometer. 相似文献
88.
This article has two purposes. Firstly, a validation exercise of the modal summation technique for the computation of synthetic
strong-motion records is performed for two regions of Europe (Umbria-Marche and south Iceland), using a variety of region
specific crustal structure models, by comparing the predicted ground motion amplitudes with observed motions. It is found
that the rate of decay of ground motions is well predicted by the theoretical decay curves but that the absolute size of the
ground motions is underpredicted by the synthetic time-histories. This is thought to be due to the presence of low-velocity
surface layers that amplify the ground motions but are not included in the crustal structure models used to compute the synthetic
time-histories.
Secondly, a new distance metric based on the computed theoretical decay curves is introduced which should have the ability
to model the complex decay of strong ground motions. The ability of this new distance metric to reduce the associated scatter
in empirically derived equations for the estimation of strong ground motions is tested. It is found that it does not lead
to a reduction in the scatter but this is thought to be due to the use of crustal structure models that are not accurate or
detailed enough for the regions studied.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
89.
IntroductionItisdefinitelystipulatedintheLawofthePeople'sRepublicofChinaonProtectingagainstandMitigatingEarthquakeDisastersthattheseismicsafetyevaluationmustbemadeformajorprojects(includinglifelineprojects)and,accordingtotheresultsobtained,theseismicresistancerequirementsshouldbedetermined.Thenecessityofseismicsafetyevaluationhasbeenrecog-nizedgradually,butthetopicontheeffectofsafetyevaluationhasnotbeenreferredmuch.Gener-allyspeaking,althoughmostpeopleapprovethesocialeffectofsafetyevaluatio… 相似文献
90.
Introduction Through many year's practices by vast numbers of scientific and technological workers andefforts from all aspects, the dynamic testing method of high-low strain has formally entered intothe technical code of foundation pile test of construction at last (The Industry Standards of thePeople's Republic of China, 2003). The striking mode of the dynamic testing method of high strainis stipulated as hammer in the code, the striking of rocket can also be used. The latter is widely… 相似文献