地震危险性不确定性分析中专家意见的合理综合

首先回顾了不确定性分析中常用的专家意见综合方法。然后在此基础上,提出了一新的简便易行的综合方法,并利用实例计算比较了三种综合方法的结果差异。所提出的方法在地震危险性不确定性分析专家意见的合理综合中具有较为实用的价值。     

Evaluation of safety of hydraulic structures affected by migrating pits

Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared.     

Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Dealing with uncertainty is key in socio-hydrological analysis. As such, thinking through what uncertainties mean for whom and when is key. This discussion contribution introduces three issues related to defining uncertainties. The first issue deals with the problem of defining uncertainty as a given external reality. The second issue deals with who decides about relevant uncertainties. The third issue deals with the issue whether coupled human-hydrological systems can be seen as existing on their own. Finally, the text provides two examples of hydrological research that try to be explicit about our dealing with multiple (interpretations of) realities.     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.     

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

Application of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) at different temporal scales to reduce the uncertainty level in modelled river flows

ABSTRACT

In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows.     

An IEEE value loop of human-technology collaboration in geospatial information science

ABSTRACT

Geosensing and social sensing as two digitalization mainstreams in big data era are increasingly converging toward an integrated system for the creation of semantically enriched digital Earth. Along with the rapid developments of AI technologies, this convergence has inevitably brought about a number of transformations. On the one hand, value-adding chains from raw data to products and services are becoming value-adding loops composed of four successive stages – Informing, Enabling, Engaging and Empowering (IEEE). Each stage is a dynamic loop for itself. On the other hand, the “human versus technology” relationship is upgraded toward a game-changing “human and technology” collaboration. The information loop is essentially shaped by the omnipresent reciprocity between humans and technologies as equal partners, co-learners and co-creators of new values.

The paper gives an analytical review on the mutually changing roles and responsibilities of humans and technologies in the individual stages of the IEEE loop, with the aim to promote a holistic understanding of the state of the art of geospatial information science. Meanwhile, the author elicits a number of challenges facing the interwoven human-technology collaboration. The transformation to a growth mind-set may take time to realize and consolidate. Research works on large-scale semantic data integration are just in the beginning. User experiences of geovisual analytic approaches are far from being systematically studied. Finally, the ethical concerns for the handling of semantically enriched digital Earth cover not only the sensitive issues related to privacy violation, copyright infringement, abuse, etc. but also the questions of how to make technologies as controllable and understandable as possible for humans and how to keep the technological ethos within its constructive sphere of societal influence.     

地震速报参数不确定性的应急灾害损失快速评估模型

本文针对目前地震应急灾害损失快速评估中存在的问题,建立了考虑地震速报参数不确定性的灾害损失快速评估模型。并利用1990年来全国的81组速报震中与宏观震中数据。得到速报震中与宏观震中偏差的概率分布经验参数。     

GIS中线元的误差熵带研究

基于现有的线元位置不确定性模型大多与置信水平的选取有关,而置信水平的选取带有一定程度的主观性,因而不能惟一确定,引入信息熵理论,提出了线元的误差熵带模型,并将它与“E－带”进行了比较,计算了落入其内的概率。该模型根据联合熵惟一确定,与置信水平的选取无关。     

Integrated surface–groundwater flow modeling: A free-surface overland flow boundary condition in a parallel groundwater flow model

Interactions between surface and groundwater are a key component of the hydrologic budget on the watershed scale. Models that honor these interactions are commonly based on the conductance concept that presumes a distinct interface at the land surface, separating the surface from the subsurface domain. These types of models link the subsurface and surface domains via an exchange flux that depends upon the magnitude and direction of the hydraulic gradient across the interface and a proportionality constant (a measure of the hydraulic connectivity). Because experimental evidence of such a distinct interface is often lacking in field systems, there is a need for a more general coupled modeling approach.