Analysis of input data and seismic hazard assessment for the low seismicity area ‘Belgium,The Netherlands and NW Germany’

From the earthquake catalogue of the region of interest 2–8°E, 49–52°N, only events with intensity > 3 are considered. The fore/aftershocks and the induced seismicity are removed. The completeness and other properties of the remaining data set are investigated. The seismic data, as well as the geological, tectonic, and other geophysical data of the area are used for the determination of the seismotectonic zones. For each zone, the cumulative intensity-frequency relation (taking into account the completeness of the catalogue), the attenuation depending on the direction, the upper bound of intensity and the average depth are calculated. When the seismic activity is changing within a zone, this zone is divided into subzones with an almost constant activity and a b value equal to the value of the whole zone. When necessary for each subzone, a different attenuation coefficient can be used, to take into account more regional effects. Then the seismic hazard is assessed with the modified McGuire program. Annual probability versus intensity for several sites and hazard intensity and probability maps are calculated. Finally, an error discussion of the whole procedure for one test site is given.     

Ex-post cap adjustment for China’s ETS: an applicable indexation rule,simulating the Hubei ETS,and implications for a national scheme

China plans to launch its nationwide Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2017. Uncertainty in China’s future economic growth rate and its effect on underlying emissions may need to be addressed to ensure stability of the scheme. This article investigates an ex-post cap adjustment mechanism for China’s ETS. An applicable rule for indexation of emissions targets to gross domestic product (GDP) adjustment is presented. Such an ex-post optimal emissions intensity target is estimated in an empirical simulation of the Hubei ETS, a large pilot scheme in a fast-growing Chinese province. And its implications for China’s planned national ETS have been discussed. The article finds that by correcting the emissions cap for the difference between expected and realized GDP, the ex-post adjustment can minimize the abatement costs. It can also limit the influence of uncertainties, as it minimizes the standard deviation of realized abatement, abatement cost, and allowance price for a given expected emissions reduction. In addition, with a limited number of parameters requiring estimation, the ex-post cap adjustment mechanism is feasible. It is consistent with the anticipated design of China’s planned national ETS and could be used alongside other design options such as price corridors.

POLICY RELEVANCE

It will be important for the stability of China’s planned national ETS to address uncertainty about future GDP growth which can significantly affect underlying emissions growth. This paper proposes a specific solution, namely an ex-post cap adjustment mechanism for the ETS cap. This method provides flexibility with transparent rules, would be consistent with China’s overall ETS policy design, and could be implemented in practice as the required parameters can be readily estimated.     

Symposium On Sediment Storage In Rivers And Estuaries

Book Reviewed in this article:

Geographical Aspects of Health and Disease in India. Rais Akhtarand A.T.A. Learmonth, eds.

Antarctic Treaty System: An Assessment. Proceedings of a Workshop at Beardmore South Field Camp, Antarctica.

American Electoral Mosaics. J. Clark Archerand Fred M. Shelley.

Kompas op Suidwes-Afrika/Namibie. W.S. Barnard, ed.

Jerusalem in the 19th Century: The Old City. Yehoshua Ben-Arieh.

The World as a Total System. Kenneth E. Boulding.

A Social History of Housing 1815–1985, Second Ed. John Burnett.

Human Migration. W.A.V. Clark.

Regional Population Projection Models. Andrei Rogers.

The State of Population Theory: Forward from Malthus. David Colemanand Roger Schofield, eds.

Imagining Tomorrow: History, Technology and the American Future. Joseph C. Corn, ed.

Swidden Agriculture in Indonesia: The Subsistence Strategies of the Kalimantan Kantú. Michael R. Dove.

Glacial Geologic Processes. David Drewry.

Physics of Desertification. Farouk El-Bazand M.H.A. Hassan, eds.

Housing the Homeless. Jon Ericksonand Charles Wilhelm, eds.

Settlement Patterns in Missouri: A Study of Population Origins, with a Wall Map. Russel L. Gerlach.

Desert Development: Man and Technology in Sparselands. Yehuda Gradus, ed.

Nuclear Winter. The Evidence and Risks. Owen Greene, Ian Percivaland Irene Ridge.

The Take-off of Suburbia and the Crisis of the Central City. Günter Heinritzand Elisabeth Lichtenberger, eds.

Regional Input-Output Analysis. Geoffrey J. D. Hewings.

Spatial Transportation Modeling. Christian Werner.

The Atlas of Georgia. Thomas W. Hodlerand Howard A. Schretter, eds.

Latin America. 5th ed. Preston E. Jamesand C.W. Minkel.

Applied Remote Sensing. C.P. Lo.

Localities, Class, and Gender. The Lancaster Regionalism Group.

Urban Social Movements: The City after Castells. Stuart Lowe.

Politics and Method. Doreen Masseyand Richard Meegan, eds.

Land Use. A. S. Mather.

The Kingdom of Coal. Donald L. Millerand Richard E. Sharpless.

The Presidio and Militia on the Northern Frontier of New Spain, A Documentary History, Vol. 1: 1570–1700. Thomas H. Naylorand Charles W. Polzer, S.J., comps. andeds.

Nuclear Power: Siting and Safety. Stan Openshaw.

The Central African Republic: The Continent's Hidden Heart. Thomas O'Toole.

Environmental and Dynamic Geomorphology. Márton Pécsi, ed.

Remote Sensing Principles and Interpretation. Floyd F. Sabins, Jr.

Acid Rain and Friendly Neighbors: The Policy Dispute between Canada and the United States. Jurgen Schmandtand Hilliard Roderick, eds.

Earth's Changing Surface: An Introduction to Geomorphology. M.J. Selby.

International Migration: The Female Experience. Rita J. Simonand Caroline B. Brettell, eds.

On Geography and Its History. D.R. Stoddart.

Transportation Networks: A Quantitative Approach. D. Teodorovic.

Processes in Physical Geography. R.D. Thompson, A.M. Mannion, C.W. Mitchell, M. Parry, J.R.G. Townshend.

Imaging Radar for Resources Surveys. J.W. Trevett.

Dominance and Affection: The Making of Pets. Yi-Fu Tuan.

Capturing the Horizon. The Historical Geography of Transportation since the Transportation Revolution of the Sixteenth Century. James E. Vance, Jr.

Nations at Risk: The Impact of the Computer Revolution. Edward Yourdon.     

Uncertainties in Stock Assessment and the Precautionary Management Suggestions for the Anchovy （Engraulisjaponicus） Stock in the Yellow Sea

Anchovy(Engraulis japonicus) is an abundant fish species in the Yellow Sea,and its natural stock is decreasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the stock-recruitment(SR) data from 1987 to 2002 published in Zhao et al.(2003),the criterion BIC(Bayesian Information Criterion) is applied to selecting a suitable model from six normal and lognormal error structured SR statisti-cal models,the age-structured model is used to calculate the biological reference points(BRPs),and the precision of the SR parame-ters and BRPs are calculated using bootstrap method. The results indicate that the anchovy fishery resource in the Yellow Sea is in an over-fished state. The precaution management principle requires that the fishery should be closed immediately.     

Developing collapse fragility curves for base-isolated buildings

Seismic isolation technique is increasingly used both for the design of new buildings and for the seismic retrofit of existing buildings. Nevertheless, so far, little attention has been paid on the collapse capacity of these structures, mainly because it requires refined nonlinear models and careful consideration of different sources of uncertainties. To fill this gap, a set of collapse fragility functions for existing reinforced concrete-frame buildings, designed for gravity loads only and then retrofitted with different isolation systems (including rubber-based and friction-based isolation systems), are derived in this study. For completeness, buildings with low and high seismic resistance are also considered. Collapse fragility functions are derived through incremental dynamic analysis, considering different collapse conditions both for isolation system and superstructure. For each case study building, mean and dispersion values are obtained considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, due to record-to record and model variability, respectively. Finally, some comments on the possible use of the results of this study for practical applications are made.     

一种获取不确定度的方法在位错模型中的应用

针对带不确定性的平差算法（least-square with uncertainty,ULS）中不确定度的选择问题,提出类L曲线法,并在位错模型中进行实验,解算位错参数。通过与LS和TLS的解算结果进行比较发现,ULS的解具有更高的精度,最高优于LS和TLS近60%。     

Advancing fracture fragility assessment of pre-Northridge welded column splices

A refined probabilistic assessment of seismic demands and fracture capacity of welded column splice (WCS) connections in welded steel moment resisting frames (WSMRFs) is presented. Seismic demand assessment is performed through cloud-based nonlinear time history analysis (NLTHA) for two case-study structures, i.e., a 4- and a 20- story WSMRFs. Results from NLTHA are used to derive fracture fragility of WCS connections. To this aim, the study investigates (1) optimal ground-motion intensity measures for conditioning probabilistic seismic demand models in terms of global (i.e., maximum inter-story drift ratio) and local (i.e., peak tensile stress in the flange of WCSs) engineering demand parameters of WSMRFs; (2) the effect of ground-motion vertical components on the longitudinal flange stress of WCS connections and their resulting fracture fragility; and (3) the effect of WCS capacity uncertainties on the fracture fragility estimates of those connections. For the latter case, an advanced finite element fracture mechanics-based approach proposed by the authors is employed to capture aleatory and epistemic uncertainties affecting fracture capacities. The focus is on pre-Northridge WCS connections featuring partial joint penetration and brittle materials, making them highly vulnerable to seismic fracture. Fracture fragility results for the case-study structures are compared and discussed, highlighting the importance of the considered issues on fragility estimates, particularly in the case of high-rise structures. Findings from the study contribute shedding some light on the influence of seismic demand and capacity uncertainties on the assessment of fracture fragility of WCS connections. These findings can guide similar performance-based assessment exercises for WSMRFs to inform, for instance, the planning and design of retrofitting strategies for those vulnerable connections.     

Impact of model free parameters and sea-level rise uncertainties on 20-years shoreline hindcast: the case of Truc Vert beach (SW France)

Shoreline change is driven by various complex processes interacting at a large range of temporal and spatial scales, making shoreline reconstructions and predictions challenging and uncertain. Despite recent progress in addressing uncertainties related to the physics of sea-level rise, very little effort is made towards understanding and reducing the uncertainties related to wave-driven shoreline response. To fill this gap, the uncertainties associated with the long-term modelling of shoreline change are analysed at a high-energy cross-shore transport dominated site. Using the state-of-the-art LX-Shore shoreline change model, we produce a probabilistic shoreline reconstruction, based on 3000 simulations over the past 20 years at Truc Vert beach, southwest France, whereby sea-level rise rate, depth of closure and three model free parameters are considered uncertain variables. We further address the relative impact of each source of uncertainty on the model results performing a Global Sensitivity Analysis. This analysis shows that the shoreline changes are mainly sensitive to the three parameters of the wave-driven model, but also that the sensitivity to each of these parameters is strongly modulated seasonally and interannually, in relation with wave energy variability, and depends on the time scale of interest. These results have strong implications on the model skill sensitivity to the calibration period as well as for the predictive skill of the model in a context of future climate change affecting wave climate and extremes. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-precision relative thermobarometry: theory and a worked example

A number of sources of uncertainty are involved in thermobarometric calculations, the most important of which are associated with analytical precision, activity–composition ( a – x ) relationships, and thermodynamic data. Statistical treatment of these uncertainties results in relatively large uncertainties on the calculated values of pressure and temperature. Little can be done, at least in the short term, about the magnitude of such uncertainties, and any thermobarometric calculations in which they are not taken into account should be treated with caution. Given that uncertainties associated with a–x models and thermodynamic data are systematic when applied to multiple samples with the same mineral assemblage, a solution to the problem of imprecise absolute thermobarometry can be obtained via a relative thermobarometric technique referred to as the Δ PT  approach. The Δ PT  approach offers a major improvement in the precision of thermobarometry if the calculations can be presented in a Δ PT  context.