2005—2010年台风突变路径的预报误差及其环流背景

本文主要分析了2005-2010年西北太平洋上台风突变路径的预报误差及其相联系的环流形势.通过分析北折和西折两种突变路径发现,中央气象台对西折突变路径的24和48 h预报接近平均预报水平;北折突变路径突变时刻,24 h预报的距离误差达到145.6 km,比平均预报误差增加了29.3％,48 h预报的距离误差达317.3 km,比平均预报误差增加了68.3％.从突变路径的物理机制方面分析突变路径预报的难点.将台风附近气流分解成低频和高频两部分,合成分析发现两类突变路径的风场区别不仅表现在低频尺度上副热带高压的西伸程度,还表现在天气尺度上台风附近的风场分布.     

“Basin scale” versus “localized” pore pressure/stress coupling - Implications for trap integrity evaluation

In petroleum industry, the difference between pore pressure (P_p) and minimum horizontal stress S_h (termed the seal or retention capacity) is of major consideration because it is often assumed to represent how close a system is to hydraulic failure and thus the maximum hydrocarbon column height that can be maintained. While S_h and P_p are often considered to be independent parameters, several studies in the last decade have demonstrated that S_h and P_p are in fact coupled. However, the nature of this coupling relationship remains poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the influences of the spatial pore pressure distribution on S_h/P_p coupling and then on failure pressure predictions and trap integrity evaluation. With analytical models, we predict the fluid pressure sustainable within a reservoir before failure of its overpressured shale cover. We verify our analytical predictions with experiments involving analogue materials and fluids. We show that hydraulic fracturing and seal breach occur for fluid pressure greater than it would be expected from conventional retention capacity. This can be explained by the impact of the fluid overpressure field in the overburden and the pressure diffusion around the reservoir on the principal stresses. We calculate that supralithostatic pressure could locally be reached in overpressured covers. We also define the retention capacity of a cover (RC) surrounding a fluid source or reservoir as the difference between the failure pressure and the fluid overpressure prevailing in shale at the same depth. In response to a localized fluid pressure rise, we show that the retention capacity does not only depend on the pore fluid overpressure of the overburden but also on the tensile strength of the cover, its Poisson’s ratio, and the depth and width of the fluid source.     

Sediment transport in high‐speed flows over a fixed bed: 2. Particle impacts and abrasion prediction

Single bed load particle impacts were experimentally investigated in supercritical open channel flow over a fixed planar bed of low relative roughness height simulating high‐gradient non‐alluvial mountain streams as well as hydraulic structures. Particle impact characteristics (impact velocity, impact angle, Stokes number, restitution and dynamic friction coefficients) were determined for a wide range of hydraulic parameters and particle properties. Particle impact velocity scaled with the particle velocity, and the vertical particle impact velocity increased with excess transport stage. Particle impact and rebound angles were low and decreased with transport stage. Analysis of the particle impacts with the bed revealed almost no viscous damping effects with high normal restitution coefficients exceeding unity. The normal and resultant Stokes numbers were high and above critical thresholds for viscous damping. These results are attributed to the coherent turbulent structures near the wall region, i.e. bursting motion with ejection and sweep events responsible for turbulence generation and particle transport. The tangential restitution coefficients were slightly below unity and the dynamic friction coefficients were lower than for alluvial bed data, revealing that only a small amount of horizontal energy was transferred to the bed. The abrasion prediction model formed by Sklar and Dietrich in 2004 was revised based on the new equations on vertical impact velocity and hop length covering various bed configurations. The abrasion coefficient k_v was found to be vary around k_v ~ 10⁵ for hard materials (tensile strength f_t > 1 MPa), one order of magnitude lower than the value assumed so far for Sklar and Dietrich's model. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

厚层覆盖区综合物化探方法找金试验研究——以广西兴安金石金矿为例

在兴安金石金矿外围 4号分散流异常区 ,通过地电化学提取金测量法 ,查明测区存在 5个走向规模小于 5 0 m的金异常区 ,W( Au) 最大值为 72 .4× 10 - 9,高出背景值十几倍 ,并藉综合土壤吸附汞测量 ,高精度磁测和激发极化法等多种物化探方法来确定这些异常区的地质、地球化学和地球物理特征 ,提出金矿成矿的有利部位在金的地电提取高异常区、高汞量异常区、高磁性异常区、低视电阻率异常区和中等视极化率异常区的“三高一低一中”的找矿模式。确定测区的北北东角 (右下角 )一带具备有利的金矿成矿条件     

Orinoco地层油的开发特征及组分研究

Orinoco地层油具有较高的气油比和沥青质含量,在模拟油藏开发状况时,使用油罐油和天然气配制的模拟油。利用大直径长岩心模型进行压力衰竭实验,得到Orinoco地层油的流动特点及模拟开发效果。结果显示：(1)高于泡点压力阶段,模拟油显现弹性驱动特征,采收率很低;(2)在泡点和“拟泡点”之间的降压阶段,模拟油表现出缓慢的膨胀性能,采收率近似线性增加,斜率接近1,此时具有最大的开采效益;(3)低于拟泡点压力阶段,产气量增大,采收率增加缓慢。实验测定了Orinoco地层油的详细组分,并以此为依据配制模拟油。对模拟油PVT性质进行分析,结论是：气油比和少量的轻质组分对相对体积的影响很小,沥青等重质组分对气体保持稳定状态起主要作用;脱气状态的地层油在60 ℃时粘度仍高达6 194 mPa·s,而较高的气油比使地层油粘度陡降,特别在压力降低至泡点压力后,仍存在一个粘度缓慢变化的阶段,显示了Orinoco地层油的独特之处。     

Unveiling controls of the latitudinal gradient of surface pCO2 in the Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation regions（northwestern North Pacific） in late spring

In the northwestern North Pacific, annual net air-sea CO₂ flux is greatest in the Kuroshio Extension（KE） zone,owing to its low annual mean partial pressure of CO₂（pCO₂）, and it decreases southward across the basin. To quantify the influences of factors controlling the latitudinal gradient in CO₂ uptake, sea surface pCO₂ and related parameters were investigated in late spring of 2018 in a study spanning the KE, Kuroshio Recirculation（KR）, and...     

Quantitative Constraints on Metamorphism in the Variscides of Southern Brittany--a Complementary Pseudosection Approach

Previous studies of metapelitic rocks from the core of the southernBrittany metamorphic belt suggest a complex clockwise P–Tevolution. We use pseudosections calculated for an average subaluminousmetapelite composition in the MnNCKFMASH system and averageP–T calculations to investigate in more detail the metamorphicevolution of these rocks. For migmatites, sequential occurrenceof kyanite, kyanite + staurolite and sillimanite suggests thata prograde evolution to P > 8 kbar at T     

钙稀土氟碳酸盐矿物中新多型体的HREM研究

利用高分辨电子显微术（ＨＲＥＭ）研究了钙稀土氟碳酸盐矿物系列中氟碳铈矿（Ｂ）／直氟碳钙铈矿（Ｓ）的混层结构。发现并确定了Ｂ＿５Ｓ＿２（ＩＨ，３Ｒ）、Ｂ＿５Ｓ＿４（３Ｒ，６Ｒ）和Ｂ＿（１８）Ｓ＿（１０）（ＩＨ）规则混层矿物中５种新多型的晶体结构类型、晶胞参数以及理论晶体化学式等。ＨＲＥＭ研究揭示出，在Ｂ＿ｍＳ＿ｎ（ｍ＞ｎ）型规则混层矿物新多型体的结晶过程中，成矿地质环境是复杂的。阐明了这些多型体是由该系列矿物中的氟碳铈矿（Ｂ）和直氟碳钙铈矿（Ｓ）结构单元层以不同比例沿ｃ轴方向的有序堆垛构成。     

江西广丰地区中奥陶统层序地层分析

本文通过对广丰县周家坞中奥陶统露头剖面层序、体系域、副层序的研究，识别出了三个不同性质的Ⅱ型层序界面和二个三级层序，确认这三个层序界面为符合实际又易于野外识别的自然界面，并对ＳＱ２中反映最大海泛期的高分辨异旋回驱动机制事件，提出可能受米兰柯维奇频率的春分点和秋分点间约２万年间隔的控制。     

低渗透储层水平井—直井联合布井极限注采井距研究

低渗透储层水平井—直井联合布井技术具有广泛的应用前景,其布井方式至关重要。首先利用劈分流场的方法直观地给出常规储层水平井—直井联合布井的产能评价方法;然后针对低渗透储层的渗流特点,在考虑启动压力梯度条件下建立新的井网渗流物理模型并求解得到产能评价公式;最后经分析计算给出启动压力梯度影响的面积井网极限注采井距关系曲线。研究结果为低渗透储层部署水平井—直井联合井网提供理论依据。