Water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin

During the development of Qaidam Basin, which is an arid area in Northwest China, rational water resources utilization and optimization are primal prerequisites, and the main restrictive factors include the following facts: scarcy water resources are non-substitutional and uneven distributed in time and space. Based on the essential principle of sustainable development, this paper adopts Multiple Targets Decision by the Closest Value Model, and succeeds in getting the best plan, which can o…     

地下水观测网的若干问题与基于信息熵的研究方法

观测站点分布的任意性、随意性和层次不清以及观测数据的冗余性等是中国地下水观测网普遍存在的问题 ,这些问题制约着观测网提供可靠和有效数据信息的能力。文章以河北平原地下水观测网为例 ,分析了观测网几个问题的表现和原因 ,并对国内外观测网优化设计的指导思想、技术方法的现状和进展作了简要介绍。在参考大量国内外研究成果的基础上 ,主要介绍了基于信息熵原理研究观测网优化设计的方法 ,包括基本概念、原理和解决观测孔层次分类、信息冗余以及空间优化布局的技术思想。笔者认为 ,信息熵方法是一种能够评价地下水观测网信息 (而不是数据 )收集能力和优化观测网布局的很具发展潜力的技术方法。     

土体渗流固结参数识别方法

根据土体固结过程中超孔隙水压力观测资料，建立了基于遗传算法的土体渗流团结参数非线性识别方法，解决了经典高斯－牛顿极小化问题所存在的局部极小问题和最小二乘法所存在的当初始值选择不合适时迭代过程发散的问题，提出了根据观测仪器的精度，建立 工终止条件的方法，数值计算结果表明，本文所提出的非线性反演方法适合于土体团结参数识别等类似的反问题。     

加强地震监测预报工作应密切关注的几个问题

目的，科技进步和社会发展对防震减灾部门提出了更高的工作目标和要求。在未来的一段时期内，一方面需要把地震预报工作从经验基础预报向完善的物理模型推进，另一方面要切实加强地震台网的优化工作，保证研究工作的顺利开展。纵观当前的政治经济形势和地震科学研究现状，文章提出了在“十五”期间应特别关注的几个问题：①正确处理“继承和发展”的关系，努力造就跨世纪的监测预报人才；②监测台网优化和监测技术的发展必须重视预报对监测技术的需求；③分析预报工作的基础建设对提高预报工作质量的作用不容忽视。     

监测网优化设计的必要性及内容

本文详细分析了监测网优化设计的必要性，并针对监测网的特点，叙述了监测网设计的有关问题。     

用于地球物理反演的均匀设计优化算法

将均匀设计、模拟退火和单纯形方法相结合，提出一种全局优化迭代算法．数值模拟表明，它具有搜索速度快、搜索能力强和不需要求导数的特点，可用于地球物理反演研究．     

我国山区人地系统结构及其变化趋势

以经济活动为主要依据，结合人群文化和环境生态特质，概括了我国山区人地系统基本结构类型．通过对人地系统结构变化的动力及作用机制分析，预测我国山区人地系统的主要变化趋势．从持续发展角度，提出了我国山区人地系统结构优化的特殊性及要点．     

Fast Nearest Neighbor Classification Methods for Multispectral Imagery

Nearest neighbor classifiers have not been widely used by remote sensing practitioners. The lack of acceptance of these classifiers may be partially due to their notoriously slow speed of execution which makes them impractical for the classification of mega-pixel images. However, training data reduction, distance measure optimization, and neighbor searching algorithms based on the modified k-d tree can speed nearest neighbor classification substantially.     

遗传算法在非线性地下水经济管理模型中的应用

通常采用基于梯度的数学规划方法求解地下水管理模型,如线性规划和非线性规划。但对于高度非线性、非凸的优化问题,尤其是涉及到经济或环境的地下水管理模型,传统方法难以有效地寻找全局最优解。本文介绍了一种求解非线性地下水资源管理模型的遗传算法,并以山东羊庄盆地分布参数地下水系统非线性管理模型为例,给出了用遗传算法在求解这类问题的一般步骤。结果表明该方法能快速有效地找到全局最优解。     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.