多类训练迭代法在沉积盆地圈闭评价中的应用

本文介绍了多类训练迭代法计算的基本原理和计算过程。将此法成功地应用于某沉积盆地的圈闭评价中,结果表明未钻探的３８ 个圈闭可分三类,其中１０ 个圈闭为Ⅰ类,８ 个圈闭为Ⅱ类,其余的２０ 个圈闭为Ⅲ类     

潍坊北部海咸水入侵特征及现状评价

潍坊北部是我国典型的海咸水入侵区,通过资料收集、海咸水入侵专项调查、地质环境监测与实验、样品分析测试和室内综合分析研究,基本查清了海咸水入侵发展及演化历史。工作区海咸水入侵发展过程可划分为发生和发展、快速发展、慢速发展和稳定发展4个阶段,目前处于稳定发展期。利用2012年水质测试结果,选取Cl-、矿化度、SO2-4,rHCO-3/rCl-,K+等指标作为评价因子,运用模糊数学的方法,对潍坊北部海(咸)水入侵区入侵程度的现状做出综合评价;结合工作区海咸水入侵的特征和现状,针对性地提出了今后的防治重点和对策。     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

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Assessing seawater quality with a variable fuzzy recognition model

With the rapid development of the marine economy industry, human exploitation of marine resources is increasing, which is contributing to the growing trend of eutrophication and frequent occurrence of red tide. Accordingly, investigations of seawater quality have attracted a great deal of attention. This study was conducted to construct a seawater environmental quality assessment model based on the variable fuzzy recognition model. The uncertainty and ambiguity of the seawater quality assessment were then considered, combining the monitoring values of evaluation indicators with the standard values of seawater quality. Laizhou Bay was subsequently selected for a case study. In this study, the correct variable model for different parameters was obtained according to the linear and nonlinear features of evaluation objects. Application of the variable fuzzy recognition model for Laizhou Bay, water quality evaluation and comparison with performance obtained using other approaches revealed that the generated model is more reliable than traditional methods, can more reasonably determine the water quality of various samples, and is more suitable for evaluation of a multi-index, multi-level, nonlinear marine environment system; accordingly, the generated model will be an effective tool for seawater quality evaluation.     

模糊优选神经网络模型在城市防洪规划方案优选中的应用

城市防洪规划方案的综合优选是一个涉及到政治、社会、经济、环境等多准则、多因素的复杂多目标决策问题.针对目前各种常用的综合优选模型应用中存在的指标权重选择及转换问题,利用模糊优选神经网络模型,构造了合理的网络拓扑结构并将模型应用于某城市的防洪规划方案综合优选中.实例结果表明,此模型不仅避免了对指标权重的处理问题,而且明显加快了BP网络的收敛速度.     

Heavy mineral stratigraphy of sediments from the southern outer shelf of the East China Sea since the last glaciation using fuzzy C-means cluster method

Correspondence analysis and fuzzy C-means cluster methods were used to divide the stratigraphy of heavy mineral assemblages,and the sediment sources and depositional dynamics of the environment reconstructed.The assemblages were taken from marine sediments from the late Pleistocene to the Holocene in Core Q43 situated on the outer shelf of the East China Sea.Based on the variable boundaries of the mineral assemblage at 63 and 228 cmbsf (cm below sea floor),the core might have previously been divided into th...     

Tectonic Movement and Global Climate Change

Glaciation between northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere were synchronous, the ice age occurred not in high but in low value of the eccentricity of the earth's orbit. Such facts went against the precession principle of the astronomical theory of ice age. The inhomogeneous distribution of climate consisted with the inhomogeneous distribution of ocean and continent. The north/south antisymmetry may be attributed to southward deviation of the thermal center and northward deviation of the mass center within the mantle demonstrated by seismic tomography. The core - mantle angular momentum makes rotational energy into thermal energy and mantle plumes erupt in the ocean bottom. The earth's deformation by tidal force makes the eruption of mantle plumes strong. They are the reason that glaciation between the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere are synchronous and the ice age occurred in low value of the eccentricity of the earth' s orbit. The tectonic movement is playing a most important part in global climate change.     

本溪县汤池沟热田热储特征及资源量评价

汤池沟热田大地构造位置处于辽阳－本溪凹陷与凤城凸起的交接部位,属浅埋藏水热对流型热田。热储由中生代燕山期花岗斑岩、凝灰岩组成。热源为岩浆活动的余热。热流体主要靠侧向基岩裂隙水及断裂充水带的水补给,自北东向南西方向以脉状裂隙水运动为主,热流体直接受北东、北北东及北西向断裂控制。该热田储存有较丰富的地热资源,热能总量计算为 58.05 TJ,目前的热水开采量每年为 414 000 t,相当于消耗燃烧值为 29.3 MJ的标准煤每年 1 833.43 t,如果按此潜力开发,其开采年限预计可持续 80年以上。     

云母石英片岩蠕变模型参数选择研究

根据三轴蠕变试验曲线的特点,建立了云母石英片岩七元件线性黏弹塑性蠕变模型,采用最小二乘法对蠕变柔量时间曲线和应变时间蠕变曲线进行拟合确定蠕变模型参数,讨论了确定蠕变模型参数的影响因素及参数的合理性与可用性。结果表明:由于受到分级加载次数、初次加载应力值和加载时间的影响,两种曲线拟合确定的参数各不相同;云母石英片岩蠕变模型的非线性较明显;蠕变柔量时间曲线拟合确定的参数不予采用,应变时间蠕变曲线拟合确定的参数在各级应力水平下变化规律不明显;采用某种单一方法确定蠕变模型参数不够全面,建议采用综合辨识法,这样才能保证岩土工程中蠕变数值分析结果的正确合理性以及施工设计的安全可靠性。