Spatially distributed modelling of soil erosion and sediment yield at regional scales in Spain

Initiated by the need to quantify erosion rates and the impacts of global changes on erosion, several attempts have been made to apply erosion models at regional scales. However, these models have often been directed towards on-site soil erosion estimates, emphasising sheet and rill erosion processes, and disregarding gully erosion, channel erosion and sediment transport. These models are therefore of limited use for the assessment of sediment yield, off-site impacts of erosion, and for the development of environmental management to control these impacts at regional scale. This study analyses and compares three spatially distributed models for the prediction of soil erosion and/or sediment yield at regional scales: the WATEM-SEDEM model that is based on the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in combination with a sediment transport equation, the physics-based Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment model (PESERA), and a newly developed Spatially Distributed Scoring model (SPADS). The three models were applied to 61 Spanish drainage basins and model predictions were evaluated against data on measured reservoir sedimentation rates. Global data sets on land use, climate, elevation and soil characteristics were used as model input for WATEM-SEDEM and SPADS, whereas published soil erosion estimates of PESERA at 1 km² resolution were used directly. SPADS and WATEM-SEDEM provided best results after separate calibration for basins with a Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) higher than 5% and those with an SDR lower than 5%. In this way, SPADS explained 67% of variation in sediment yield, while WATEM-SEDEM explained 48% of the variation. PESERA represents a promising alternative to the use of empirical models at the regional scale as it can be applied to very diverse environments with little calibration. However, PESERA provides soil erosion rates and not sediment yield estimates. For most basins PESERA soil erosion rates vary between fifty and close to zero percent of total sediment yield. Two major factors may explain this discrepancy between modelled soil erosion rates and measured sediment yield. First, it may be that PESERA underestimates soil erosion under Mediterranean conditions, although PESERA soil erosion rates are of the same order of magnitude as erosion rates measured in erosion plot studies. Second, gully-, river channel erosion and sediment transport processes may be much more important than sheet- and rill erosion for regional scale sediment yield in these environments. These issues therefore require further attention in future model development. Although spatially lumped models provide better predictions of sediment yield at the basin scale, and while validation of the predicted spatial patterns of sources and sinks of sediment requires further research, spatially distributed models are expected to be of value to support management decisions regarding the assessment of on-site and off-site impacts of erosion at the regional scale.     

重庆市自然灾害管理综合信息系统研究

从重庆市自然灾害情况和自然灾害信息管理现状分析入手,构建了该市自然灾害管理信息系统的系统目标、整体设计和界面的开发。该市自然灾害管理信息系统主要由4个模块组成:自然灾害数据库模块、远程通信管理模块、应用分析模型库和决策支持模块四大部分,四大模块通过一定的数据接口连结,成为一体化系统,对市自然灾害进行有效的管理和监测,从而减少自然灾害带来的经济损失。     

城市地下空间开发利用容量评估的基础研究

该文探讨了城市地下空间开发利用容量评估的必要性,容量评估研究的基本内容及其关键技术。指出当前城市地下空间容量评估基础研究包括指标体系、评估模型、评估平台与评估示范四方面。城市地下空间容量评估研究不仅有利于城市地下空间的合理利用和有序开发,也有利于引导城市地面设施的合理布局与科学规划,对保障现代城市的可持续发展具有重要意义。     

遥感数据的模糊不确定性及其处理方法探讨

通过对遥感数据生成机理的分析,得出遥感数据存在不确定性,并进一步论证了不确定性中含有模糊不确定性,这样对遥感数据的不确定性处理更加全面和合理,从而达到提高遥感数据的精度和消除遥感数据不确定性的目的。综合国内外对遥感数据模糊不确定性的处理研究,探讨了几种处理方法,发现还没有一种方法能圆满解决遥感数据的模糊不确定性。     

豫西寨凹隐伏岩体地球物理场特征与深部找矿预测

寨凹隐伏岩体是豫西南地区利用重磁资料解释推断的8个隐伏、半隐伏岩体之一,分布面积约310km2。豫西南地区主要钼（钨）铅锌银（金）矿床均分布于这8个隐伏、半隐伏岩体区及其边部附近,二者具有非常明显的时空关系。研究隐伏岩体分布形态、深度、产状和深大断裂构造分布,对指导深部找矿勘探具有重要意义。通过研究寨凹隐伏岩体重、磁场变化特征和分布规律,并通过相关定量计算,确定了隐伏岩体的侵入模型。将全区隐伏岩体分为三个区,Ⅰ区隐伏岩体顶面深度0~0.8km,分布面积约71km2,Ⅱ区隐伏岩体顶面深度0.8~2.0km,分布面积约153km2,Ⅲ区隐伏岩体顶面深度2~4km,分布面积约86km2。根据隐伏岩体侵入模型和典型矿床物探异常特征,建立了立体成矿模型（从浅至深从中低温成矿元素到高温成矿元素的过渡模型）和综合地球物理找矿模型（包括隐伏岩体、隐伏岩体顶上带、岩钟和斑岩体、矿体矿化体的地球物理异常标志）;预测了找矿潜力,总结了勘查方法技术组合;指出在Ⅰ、Ⅱ隐伏岩体分布区银（金）铅锌矿床的下部有寻找斑岩型钼、钨、铜矿产的潜力。     

某规划区地下水环境影响评价研究

为预测某规划区地下水环境影响,本次研究运用FEFLOW地下水数值模拟软件,在分析研究区水文地质、地下水渗流场等的基础上建立了溶质运移数值模型。模拟结果显示,模型能够真实反映研究区实际水文地质条件,预测两种工况下的氨氮、氰化物和COD进行溶质运移变化规律,可以作为地下水环境影响评价的依据。同时,污水处理厂在事故工况下对地下水环境影响较大,规划区应制定相应的地下水风险应急预案并采取严格的防渗措施,减小对地下水的影响。     

基于灰色关联度模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价

数理统计和机器学习模型如支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)等,在区域滑坡敏感性评价中得到广泛的应用.但这些模型的建模过程往往较复杂,如在对机器学习进行训练和测试时难以选取合理的非滑坡栅格单元,而且有较多的模型参数需要确定.为提高滑坡敏感性评价建模的效率和精度,提出基于灰色关联度的敏感性评价模型.灰色关联度模型能有效计算各比较样本与参考样本之间的定量的关联度,具有建模过程简洁和评价精度高的优点,该模型目前在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用还没有引起研究人员的足够关注且有待进一步拓展.拟将灰色关联度模型用于浙江省飞云江流域南田—雅梅图幅(南田地区)的滑坡敏感性评价,并将得到的评价结果与SVM模型的敏感性评价结果作对比分析.结果显示,灰色关联度模型在高和极高敏感区的滑坡预测精度优于SVM模型,而在中等敏感区的滑坡预测精度略低于SVM模型;整体而言,灰色关联度模型对整个南田地区滑坡敏感性分布的预测精度略高于SVM模型.对两个模型建模过程的对比结果显示,灰色关联度模型建模较简单,具有比SVM模型更高的建模效率,为滑坡敏感性评价提供了一种新思路.     

FeSO4对铬污染土的稳定特性及风险评价试验研究

采用硫酸亚铁（FeSO4）对铬污染土进行稳定化处理。选用浸出试验、Cr(VI)残留值试验和形态提取试验,研究了粒径和有机质对铬污染土稳定特性的影响规律。试验结果表明,粒径和有机质对铬污染土稳定特性有较大影响。粒径的减小可显著降低稳定土中Cr(VI)和总Cr的浸出浓度及稳定土中Cr(VI)的含量;当污染土粒径小于2 mm时,Fe(II)/Cr(VI)摩尔比为3,稳定土中Cr(VI)和总Cr的浸出浓度分别为4.68、8.9 mg/L,均低于我国《危险废弃物鉴别标准 浸出毒性鉴别》（GB/T5085.3－2007）的限值。有机质添加量的增加可明显降低稳定土中Cr(VI)和总Cr的浸出浓度及Cr(VI)的含量。当Fe(II)/Cr(VI)摩尔比为3时,有机质的添加量为5%,稳定土中Cr(VI)的含量为28.3 mg/kg,低于我国《土壤环境质量标准》（GB15618－2008）中工业和商业用地限值（30 mg/kg）;当有机质的添加量为10%时,稳定土中Cr(VI)的含量为4.8 mg/kg,低于居住用地限值（5 mg/kg）。形态提取试验结果表明：粒径的减小可降低弱酸提取态的铬含量,增加可还原态的铬含量,而对可氧化态和残渣态的铬含量影响不大;有机质可促使弱酸提取态、可还原态的铬转化为可氧化态的铬,而残渣态的铬变化不大。稳定土中铬从活性态向较稳定态转化,是铬稳定土稳定特性和环境风险变化的根本原因。     

Heavy Oils and Oil Sands: Global Distribution and Resource Assessment

Gl obal recoverable resources of heavy oil and oil sands have been assessed by CNPC using a geology-based assessment method combined with the traditional volumetric method, spatial interpolation method, parametric-probability method etc. The most favourable areas for exploration have been selected in accordance with a comprehensive scoring system. The results show: (1) For geological resources, CNPC estimate 991.18 billion tonnes of heavy oil and 501.26 billion tonnes of oil sands globally, of which technically recoverable resources of heavy oil and oil sands comprise 126.74 billion tonnes and 64.13 billion tonnes respectively. More than 80% of the resources occur within Tertiary and Cretaceous reservoirs distributed across 69 heavy-oil basins and 32 oil-sands basins. 99% of recoverable resources of heavy oil and oil sands occur within foreland basins, passive continental-margin basins and cratonic basins. (2) Since residual hydrocarbon resources remain following large-scale hydrocarbon migration and destruction, heavy oil and oil sands are characterized most commonly by late hydrocarbon accumulation, the same basin types and source-reservoir conditions as for conventional hydrocarbon resources, shallow burial depth and stratabound reservoirs. (3) Three accumulation models are recognised, depending on basin type: degradation along slope; destruction by uplift; and migration along faults. (4) In addition to mature exploration regions such as Canada and Venezuela, the Volga-Ural Basin and the Pre-Caspian Basin are less well-explored and have good potential for oil-sand discoveries, and it is predicted that the Middle East will be an important region for heavy-oil development.     

北京城乡接合部地表颗粒物中重金属污染负荷及健康风险评价

随着我国城市建设的不断推进,城市径流污染越来越受到关注。地表颗粒物(RDS)是重金属的重要载体,雨水径流对地表颗粒物的冲刷引起的径流重金属污染问题凸显。本研究选取北京市城乡接合部作为研究区域,研究区域内地表颗粒物中重金属(As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Mn、Pb、Zn)污染负荷并进行健康风险评估。结果表明,地表颗粒物含有的重金属中,除Mn外,As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb、Zn的平均浓度均超过背景值。其中,Cd的平均浓度是其背景值的3倍,Cr的平均浓度是其背景值的4倍之多。在径流冲刷条件下,Cr的污染负荷在各研究区域均最高,为其他重金属的3~4倍。暴露模型计算表明,重金属非致癌日平均暴露量为手口摄入量＞皮肤吸收量＞吸入空气量,经手口接触是人体地表灰尘暴露风险的主要途径。对于非致癌风险,在芦求路主路以及黄鹅路十字路口区域存在对于儿童的非致癌风险,整体区域内成人所受非致癌风险较低。各研究区域内重金属呼吸暴露途径的总致癌风险均低于环境阈值,致癌风险较低。