中国东部高空颠簸时空分布特征及其与热带中东太平洋海温的关系

本文利用1979～2014年NCEP-DOE日平均再分析资料和中国区域2375份航空器空中颠簸报告资料,研究中国东部区域高空颠簸的时空分布特征及其与热带中东太平洋海温异常（简称“海温异常”;空间范围:5°S～5°N,120°～170°W）的关系以及产生这种关系的可能原因。结果表明:中国东部地区高空颠簸与东亚副热带西风急流之间存在显著时空相关关系,其原因是高空纬向风引起的垂直风切变是构成高空颠簸时空分布的主导因素。中国东部夏季高空颠簸与海温异常存在正相关关系;冬季呈现南北两个正负相关区:以30°N为界,北部区域存在显著的负相关,南部区存在显著的正相关,在30°N急流轴附近区域无显著相关关系。海温异常影响中国高空颠簸时空分布的可能原因是海温变化引起对流层高层温度出现异常,进而影响温度的经向梯度,导致东亚副热带西风急流强度和位置出现异常（夏季,急流轴南侧出现西风异常;冬季,急流轴北侧出现东风异常,南侧出现西风异常）。高空纬向风的变化导致纬向风的垂直梯度和经向梯度出现异常,最终影响高空颠簸的时空分布特征。对流层高层温度的异常变化可能是由与热带海温异常相关的平流层水汽变化所引起。     

广东2008年罕见\

采用NCEP FNL 1°×1°逐6 h再分析资料、风廓线雷达观测资料及其他常规观测资料,对2014年5月23日发生在广州市中北部大暴雨过程的环流背景、天气尺度系统以及中尺度系统特征进行了研究。结果表明：(1)该过程是多尺度系统相互配合作用的结果,暴雨发生在“两槽一脊”环流背景下,高空槽与副热带高压相互作用使华南持续受短波槽影响;低层来自孟加拉湾及南海的低空急流,为大暴雨的产生提供了充足的水汽条件;高层南亚高压使得华南上空风场辐散抽吸作用明显。(2)强降水发生前,强风速伸展高度的不断降低使得上下层垂直风切变增大,为暴雨的产生提供了很好的动力条件,且水汽条件较好;低空急流指数的脉动与强降水的发生关系密切,其在强降水发生前1~2 h迅速增大,强降水发生后则迅速减小。(3)风场低层垂直切变的增强与强风速的下传具有较好的时间对应关系,说明由于强风速垂直伸展高度不断降低导致了风场垂直切变的增强。在强降水发生前,低空急流、低空急流指数以及垂直风切变的相应变化对短时强降水的预报具有一定指示意义。

     

The Relationship Between Abnormal Meiyu and Medium-Term Scale Wave Perturbation Energy Propagation Along the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet

The East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) is one of the most important factors modulating the Meiyu rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, China. This article analyzed periods of the medium-term EASWJ variation,wave packet distribution and energy propagation of Rossby waves along the EASWJ during Meiyu season, and investigated their possible influence on abnormal Meiyu rain. The results showed that during the medium-term scale atmospheric dynamic process, the evolution of the EASWJ in Meiyu season was mainly characterized by the changes of3-8 d synoptic-scale and 10-15 d low-frequency Rossby waves. The strong perturbation wave packet and energy propagation of the 3-8 d synoptic-scale and 10-15 d low-frequency Rossby waves are mostly concentrated in the East Asian region of 90°-150°E, where the two wave trains of perturbation wave packets and wave-activity flux divergence coexist in zonal and meridional directions, and converge on the EASWJ. Besides, the wave trains of perturbation wave packet and wave-activity flux divergence in wet Meiyu years are more systematically westward than those in dry Meiyu years, and they are shown in the inverse phases between each other. In wet(dry) Meiyu year, the perturbation wave packet high-value area of the 10-15 d low-frequency variability is located between the Aral Sea and the Lake Balkhash(in the northeastern part of China), while over eastern China the wave-activity flux is convergent and strong(divergent and weak), and the high-level jets are strong and southward(weak and northward). Because of the coupling of high and low level atmosphere and high-level strong(weak) divergence on the south side of the jet over the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin, the low-level southwest wind and vertically ascending motion are strengthened(weakened), which is(is not)conducive to precipitation increase in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin. These findings would help to better understand the impact mechanisms of the EASWJ activities on abnormal Meiyu from the perspective of medium-term scale Rossby wave energy propagation.     

On the nonlinear dynamics of the boundary layer of intense atmospheric vortex

The paper describes a stationary model of the boundary layer of a large-scale vortex. The model takes into account two types of nonlinearities: (1) advection of the momentum and centrifugal accelerations, that is related to large values of the Rossby number; (2) a nonlinear turbulent friction on the lower boundary (generally speaking, not only quadratic, but also more complicated). Nevertheless, the model may be studied analytically. This approach allows discovery and analysis of several universal regularities, which are not revealed by numerical modeling. The model provides the actual values for the speed of the surface wind and the angle of cross-isobar surface flow in the tropical cyclones.     

吐鲁番一场罕见降雪天气个例分析

对“2000·2”罕见降雪天气过程分析表明,低层强烈的辐合上升运动和低空急流的突然增强是产生降雪的关键.     

高空急流入口区次级环流在一次突发性强降水过程中的作用

通过对 1999年秋季一次突发性降水过程高空急流的分析 ,发现急流入口区南侧辐散 ,其低层辐合上升 ,当低层有印缅槽活动的时候 ,对流加强 ,印缅槽发展 ;急流入口区北侧辐合 ,其低层辐散下沉 ,有向南的非地转风     

黄淮流域一次飑线天气的数值模拟与分析

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料和探空资料,对2009年6月3日发生在黄淮流域的强飑线天气过程进行诊断分析,并采用WRF模式进行天气过程模拟和进一步研究。结果表明：本次飑线天气是东北冷涡后部横槽引导冷空气南下与南方暖湿气流相遇引发的。地面干线附近是雷暴和飑线的高发区。这次飑线天气发生在高空急流减弱之际、低空急流建立之前。高低空急流的U、V风分量变化对飑线有一定的指示意义。不同阶段的飑线降水和大风出现位置不同。     

东亚副热带西风急流的变化特征

利用1979-2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了东亚副热带西风急流的变化特征。结果表明:东亚副热带西风急流中心位置、强度有明显的季节变化,冬季偏东偏南、强度最强,夏季偏北偏西、强度最弱。冬半年东亚副热带西风急流南界、北界年际变化的幅度大,夏半年幅度较小。冬季、春季东亚副热带西风急流范围较大,秋季、夏季小,一年内,偏大年或偏小年的出现不具有季节的连续性。     

Simulation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream with GFDL AGCM (AM2.1)

The present study validated the capability of the AM2.1, a model developed at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), in reproducing the fundamental features of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream (EASWJ). The main behaviors of the EASWJ are also investigated through the reanalysis of observational NCEP/NCAR data. The mean state of the EASWJ, including its intensity, location, structure, and seasonal evolution is generally well-portrayed in the model. Compared with the observation, the model tends to reproduce a weaker jet center. And, during summer, the simulated jet center is northward-situated. Results also demonstrate the model captures the variability of EASWJ during summer well. The results of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) applied on the zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) over East Asia for both the observation and simulation indicate an inter-decadal shift around the late 1970s. The correlation coefficient between the corresponding principle components is as great as 0.42 with significance at the 99% confidence level.     

陕北北部一次罕见区域性暴雨天气过程分析

利用MICAPS常规气象资料、ERA-Interim 0.25°×0.25°再分析数据、地面区域气象站逐小时观测数据、FY-2G卫星云图和榆林CR/CB雷达产品,对2017年7月25日20时—26日08时陕西北部持续强降水过程进行综合分析。结果表明：（1）这次降水过程呈东西向带状分布,雨强大、范围小、移动慢、持续时间长,降水主要集中在夜间,大暴雨区具有典型的β中尺度特征;（2）西风槽的快速东移南压以及副高的稳定维持有利于槽前正涡度平流的加强及低层低值系统的发展,850 hPa新生的河套低涡和东南低空急流成为这次强降水过程的直接影响系统;（3）河套低涡是一个浅薄的热低压系统,它的发生发展可分为三个阶段,初始阶段低涡形成于弱的锋区中并具有不对称的暖心结构,成熟阶段和旺盛阶段低涡转变为对称的暖心结构,强降水产生在低涡发展成熟阶段,在低涡旺盛阶段降水达到最强;（4）河套低涡直接影响并控制着地面β中尺度低压的发生发展,β中尺度低压稳定在榆林西部,中尺度低压的西部和东部分别形成冷性辐合和暖性辐合,不断触发γ对流单体生成,不同中尺度对流云团的合并导致了降水的强烈发展。