Coastal Case Study-Clarence City Council

This report chooses Clarence City Council as the coastal jurisdiction and analyzes its planning processes and instruments for its potential to build resilience to climate change impacts on the coast. In the first part, it introduces the change of Australia’s climate and consequences of climate change. Based on analysis of sea level rise, inundation and erosion risk, it shows climate change has impacts on Clarence coastal areas in Tasmania. This paper shows the three key elements for successful coastal management (retreat, accommodation and protection) and discusses the factors that impede resilience. Finally, there are some recommendations that may be helpful for climate change impacts and local council     

社会—生态系统综合风险防范的凝聚力模式

在综合风险防范“凝聚力”概念的基础上,从社会—生态系统综合风险防范的“凝聚力”基本原理、凝聚力形成中的协同效能、凝聚力实现手段、凝聚力优化对提高系统抗打击能力的作用等方面系统研究了“凝聚力”的科学内涵,并初步建立了“凝聚力”的模式,以期完善现有综合风险防范理论体系。结果表明：协同宽容、协同约束、协同放大和协同分散四个基本原理阐述了社会—生态系统综合风险凝聚力在协同运作上的四种表现,同时也是凝聚力在“凝心”和“聚力”具体问题上的4 种优化目标的阐释;凝聚力模式将四个协同原理及其优化目标转化为社会认知普及化、成本分摊合理化、组合优化智能化、费用效益最大化等一系列手段,实现了社会—生态系统综合风险防范产生的共识最高化、成本最低化、福利最大化以及风险最小化;运用复杂系统建模和仿真的方法,通过设计社会—生态系统结构和功能的表达,验证了随着系统凝聚力的提高,系统抵抗局部和全局打击的能力均得以增强,而且,可通过优化社会—生态系统中节点的结构和功能,以达到提升系统凝聚力的目的;凝聚力模式补充了灾害系统中脆弱性、恢复性、适应性等概念在阐释社会—生态系统综合风险防范问题上存在的缺陷。     

基于GIS的区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估方法

在全球变暖大背景下,极端灾害性天气事件频繁发生,其中以暴雨洪涝灾害表现最为明显。文章基于灾害系统理论及风险评估原理,利用基础地理数据、气象数据、社会经济数据、历史灾情数据等,分别从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力4个评价指标,建立基于评价因子的暴雨洪涝风险评估模型,并指出区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估需要解决的重点问题包括数据空间化、气象数据的序列延长、参数的确定等。最后以暴雨洪涝多发地区福建省石狮市（县级市）为研究区,利用GIS技术生成100 m×100 m分辨率的致灾因子危险性空间分布图、孕灾环境敏感性空间分布图、承灾体易损性空间分布图、防灾减灾能力空间分布图、暴雨洪涝风险评估空间分布图。结果显示：风险最高地区主要位于湖滨街道和凤里街道;其次是祥芝镇东部和西部,灵秀镇大部份地区、蚶江镇中南部、宝盖镇中南部和锦尚镇大部分地区;风险较低的地区主要是蚶江镇北部、宝盖镇北部和永宁镇大部分地区。     

甘肃省河东地区气象干旱灾害风险评估与区划

干旱灾害是世界上危害最为严重的自然灾害之一。通过对干旱灾害风险成因的深入分析,结合灾害学理论,从干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体暴露性和防灾减灾能力等4个方面入手,构建干旱灾害风险评估模型,然后依据甘肃省河东地区相关气象、生态和社会经济数据,在GIS平台下将干旱灾害的自然属性和社会属性统一起来进行干旱灾害风险评估与区划。结果表明：（1）研究区致灾因子危险性等级有自中部向东西两边逐渐降低的趋势,7个地区中干旱灾害危险性自大到小依次是天水、平凉、陇南、定西、临夏、甘南和庆阳。（2）研究区孕灾环境脆弱性有自北向南逐渐降低的趋势,脆弱性自大到小依次是庆阳、临夏、定西、平凉、天水、甘南和陇南。（3）研究区承灾体暴露性自大到小依次是天水、平凉、临夏、定西、陇南、庆阳和甘南。（4）防灾减灾能力自大到小依次是临夏、天水、平凉、定西、陇南、庆阳、甘南。（5）河东地区自北向南干旱灾害风险逐渐降低,干旱风险自大到小依次是定西、天水、庆阳、平凉、临夏、甘南和陇南。     

论高岭石粘土和铝土矿研究的新进展

过去我国地质界向前苏联学习,把球粘土(Ballclay)作为高岭土或耐火粘土的一个变种,使我们找矿走入误区,以致后来从美国进口球粘土。其实球粘土的结晶性质这个内在因素与高岭土或耐火粘土常不相同,则派生的性能更不一样,应成为独立的矿种,还可与国际接轨。又过去国内外学者认为高岭石高度有序为热液型的,而沉积型的为无序高岭石。但笔者等的研究,我国高岭石高度有序而规模大且均匀稳定的,应算沉积型的紫矸(古生代高岭石软质粘土),可以作流动性好的造纸涂料。又我国硬水铝石岩溶铝土矿,应属于生物有机质成矿作用的沉积型铝土矿。     

一种用于中国年最高(低)气温区划的新的聚类方法

采用聚类分析和旋转主分量分析相结合的方案,对我国年最高（低）气温的年际变化型态进行地理区划。这种两者相结合的分区方案可以互相补充,使区划更具客观性。结果表明,中国年最高气温和最低气温年际变化分别可划为12和11个不同类型的区域。对前者（高温）来说,各区域的年际差异比较大,气温变化的阶段性特征有所不同;对后者（低温）来说,各区域具有较强的增温一致性,但增温的特点和幅度存在明显区域差异。最高（低）气温和平均温度的关系在各区域是不同的。总体来说,年代际变化的一致性要好于年际变化的一致性。     

联合高分辨率地震和精细测井资料的剩余油气分析

寻找和开发剩余油气藏是提高采收率的关键.以往主要是通过测井、试井资料建立中高层渗透砂岩油藏的井间剩余油分布模型,并采用数学分析方法建立井间剩余油的预测模型.本文介绍了基于高分辨率地震和精细测井分析建立剩余油模型并结合数模分析的剩余油分析技术.利用该技术对辽河油田某断块进行了实际剩余油气分析,在开发方案设计和提高采收率方面取得了明显的效果.     

Flood risk analyses—how detailed do we need to be?

Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding applications both on the hazard and on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations of models of different complexity both on the hazard and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected were (A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models used for the estimation of direct damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE land cover data, (II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 1D/2D model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high data requirements, and long computation times.     

Effect of protection against wind according to the variation porosity of wind fence

This study examines shelter effect against the wind by using wind fence with various porosities and distance. The shelter effect of wind fence was investigated by a wind tunnel test. Flow characteristics of velocities and turbulences behind wind fence were measured using a hot-wire anemometer. This was done by varying the porosity by 0, 20, and 40% of the wind fence. The wind fence distance ranged from 1H to 9H. In addition, the overall characterization of the wind fence was investigated by measuring a total of 28 points on the wind fence, which forms a lattice structure on it with 7 points in the lateral direction and 4 points in the vertical direction. The results indicate that the degree of the turbulence is lowered and the velocity of the wind is decreased when porosity of 40% is used at a distance of 4H–7H. The effectiveness of the wind fence depends on the porosity and distance. Porosity of 20% proved to be effective for the protection area of 1H–3H, while that of 40% was effective for the protection area of 4H–6H.     

寒区有隔热层的圆形隧道温度场解析解

在多年冻土地区修建隧道,会影响到多年冻土的热稳定性,目前一般采用在隧道衬砌中设置隔热层的方法来防止冻土嗣岩融化.根据隧道现场实测的气温资料,考虑正弦曲线规律变化的对流换热边界条件,建立了一次衬砌、隔热层、二次衬砌及围岩4层结构的圆形隧道热传导方程.运用微分方程求解方法和贝塞尔特征函数的正交和展开定理,对4个热传导方程进行了求解,得到隧道一次衬砌、隔热层、二次衬砌及同岩4层结构温度场的解析解,将计算结果与现场实测结果进行比较,吻合良好.计算结果还表明,在衬砌中铺设厚5 cm、导热系数为0.03 W·m-1·℃-1的隔热层可以保证风火山隧道围岩不发生季节性融化.该解析解可用于验证其它数值方法的计算结果,也便于工程设计人员和施工人员对同类寒区隧道进行温度场的计算,因而具有一定的工程应用价值.