冀东太平寨-娄子山太古宙麻粒岩相变质峰期流体研究

冀东太平寨-娄子山地区太古宙麻粒岩系变质峰期流体包裹体首次见于夕线石中,按形 态 和产状可分三类,均形成于峰期至其稍后阶段。它们成分相似。特征是:①富碳质,XC　O2+C　H4=0.64～0.93; ②含少量H2O,XH 2O=0～0.22,且与峰期矿物 组合平衡热力学计算的水活度(aH2O=0.04～0.31)和含量( XH2O=0.03～0.22)完全吻合; ③有时含一定量H2S和SO2; ④盐水溶液 中阴离子总量极低(0.12～0.61mol/L)。石英和石榴石中也有特征相同的这期包裹体。峰 期包裹体中C　O 2均一温度多数 为-28℃～-22℃,密度为0.96～1.06g/cm3,包裹体整体密度应稍高,相应的压力为0.60 ～0.70G Pa。流体的氧逸度lgfO2在-17～-15之间。峰期流体上述各种特征在空间上较 均匀,相邻的不同岩石类型中aH2O值相似,结合地质和原岩特 征分析,认为流体中C　O2可能为深部地幔来源,其成因与基性岩浆底侵及其结晶作 用有关。     

Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Part Ⅱ: Model Uncertainty

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II. Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60°S and 60°N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.     

An Early Cretaceous extinct spreading center in the northern Natal valley

We have identified an extinct E–W spreading center in the northern Natal valley on the basis of magnetic anomalies which was active from chron M11 (133 Ma) to 125.3 Ma, just before chron M2 (124 Ma) in the Early Cretaceous. Seafloor spreading in the northern Natal valley accounts for approximately 170 km of north–south motion between the Mozambique Ridge and Africa. This extension resolves the predicted overlap of the continental (central and southern) Mozambique Ridge and Antarctica in the chron M2 to M11 reconstructions from Mesozoic finite rotation parameters for Africa and Antarctica. In addition, the magnetic data reveal that the Mozambique Ridge was an independent microplate from at least 133 to 125 Ma. The northern Natal valley extinct spreading center connects to the spreading center separating the Mozambique Basin and the Riiser-Larsen Sea to the east. It follows that the northern Mozambique Ridge was either formed after the emplacement of the surrounding oceanic crust or it is the product of a very robust spreading center. To the west the extinct spreading center connects to the spreading center separating the southern Natal valley and Georgia Basin via a transform fault. Prior to chron M11, there is still a problem with the overlap of Mozambique Ridge if it is assumed to be fixed with respect to either the African or Antarctic plates. Some of the overlap can be accounted for by Jurassic deformation of the Mozambique Ridge, Mozambique Basin, and Dronning Maud land. It appears though that the Mozambique Ridge was an independent microplate from the breakup of Gondwana, 160 Ma, until it became part of the African plate, 125 Ma.     

川东地区碳酸盐岩超压与天然气富集关系研究

地层流体超压的形成、演化及分布与油气成藏的主要石油地质过程有着千丝万缕地联系。由于碳酸盐岩本身的复杂性，其超压的成因及研究方法不能简单地借用“欠压实”的原理。本文从对比砂泥岩和碳酸盐岩在成压机理上的差异性入手，详细探讨了川东地区碳酸盐岩成压的各种机理，指出成烃作用是造成区域性超压的最主要因素；并结合该区超压平面上的分区性及纵向上的分带性，论述了各区、带超压与气藏分布的内在联系，总结出该区超压与天然气富集的关系。     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件,分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年,TC具有10a左右的周期变化,1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期,1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明,中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区,各月TC强度分布特征明显不同,且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外,通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算,选取高相关格点,根据相关权重组成组合因子,构建二次型预测方程,做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示,冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。     

雷州半岛灯楼角海岸地貌演变

灯楼角岬角位于雷州半岛的西南端,地处热带北缘.过去几次开展的区域地貌和第四纪地质调查及制图,均包括本区1),2),[1～2].宋朝景曾做过涉及本区海底的地貌与浅地层调查3),又指导学生研究本段海岸地貌4).近年赵焕庭等[3]开展该区珊瑚礁研究,使用了1960年版航空照片和1964年版1:10000地形图,结合野外调查,进一步研究了本区海岸地貌的演变.     

东天山某金矿点原生晕分析及找矿预测

文章基于对东天山某金矿点的元素背景分析和R型聚类分析发现,区内的金元素是区域背景值的52.33倍,变异系数为1.03,呈强富集、极不均匀分布,这表明区内金元素离散程度高,迁移、富集成矿的能力强;根据原生晕分带特征及分带模式,对12勘探线剖面深部矿体进行了预测靶区圈定。     

南亚海陆热力差异及其对热带季风区环流的影响

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了亚洲热带季风区海陆分布所造成的热力差异,以及空间非均匀加热对热带季风区环流特别是初夏过渡季节环流的影响.在大尺度环流背景下,次大陆地形对亚洲热带地区环流的影响主要表现在对低层环流的热力作用,其中感热加热对冬、春季环流的影响明显,对秋季环流的作用相对较小.中南半岛和印度半岛之间的热力差异及其对环流的影响受到青藏高原的调配作用.在初夏过渡季节,高原热力强迫作用于低纬低层环流,使低纬约90 (E以东出现南风加强、以西出现北风加强,从而增强了中南半岛上空的潜热加热,减弱了其低层的感热加热,印度半岛地区还加强了低层的感热加热.多尺度、各种性质的加热共同作用于低纬大气,形成了亚洲热带地区独有的环流特征.     

惠东高潭三次极端强降水过程成因对比分析

基于ECMWF的ERA-Interim全球大气再分析资料、MICAPS实况数据和广东省气象观测资料,对比分析了广东惠东高潭1979年、2013年和2018年的三次极端强降水过程的成因。结果表明:造成高潭极端强降水的影响系统有台风本体环流、登陆后的台风残余环流、季风低压外围环流等,其中2018年季风低压影响过程降水量最大;不同过程对流层低层强迫暖湿气流辐合抬升方式不同,分别为冷暖气流相互作用、西南季风和偏南季风地交汇、季风涌、边界层急流等;各过程中伴随的低空西南气流和偏南气流的风速大小差异明显,2013年台风残余环流影响时低空西南(偏南)风风速最大。相同点有:影响天气系统移动缓慢,并长时间维持,为极端强降水的发生发展和维持提供有利的动力条件;西南(偏南)季风、边界层急流或西南气流源源不断的水汽输送,为极端强降水的发展和维持提供了充足的水汽条件,同时低空暖湿气流的输送使得暴雨区大气层结不稳定状态长时间维持,利于持续性强降水的发展。研究结论可为今后高潭及其附近地区极端强降水的预报和决策服务提供理论支撑。