岱海水位下降原因分析

应用ＧＩＳ软件ＡＲＣ／ＩＮＦＯ,建立太湖流域海面－地面变化信息系统,并与数据采集系统,图像处理系统和计算机系统相结合,研究对本区人类社会经济发展,区域规划,工程建设和人民生活产生重大影响的气候,海面,地面变化和区域环境变迁。采用长江三角洲地区邻近海域２１世纪前半期地区性ＲＳＬ上升幅度预测方案进行研究,结果表明：随着海面的不断上升和太湖流域地面沉降的加剧,２０００年和２０５０年,太湖流域处于高潮位以     

巴黎气候会议对全球长期目标的新发展

巴黎气候会议（COP21）达成了包括《巴黎协定》在内的重要成果,丰富和深化了应对气候变化的一揽子长期目标。1.5℃温升控制目标意味着全球管控气候风险的政治意愿得到强化,减缓温室气体排放的路径得到初步勾勒。在未来的科学评估和政治谈判中,全球各区域甚至是各个排放大国的排放空间、排放路径和减缓需求将会进一步清晰化和定量化,还会丰富和深化自上而下的国际气候合作规则,结合当前以国家自主决定贡献（INDC）为特征的、主要以自下而上方式推进全球气候治理的新模式,将对发展中国家、尤其是发展中排放大国的排放配额与发展空间产生重要影响,并进一步影响各国制定其国家贡献目标与行动的自主性。     

新21号泉地震异常特征分析

通过对新疆呼图壁新21泉近23年的观测资料系统梳理分析认为,该泉动水位对其300 km范围内的中强地震有较好的短临异常显示,异常特征为"阶跃"型和"脉冲"型,同时当该泉对其100 km范围内4级地震有较强的同震响应时,可能对后续中强地震的发生有一定的前兆指示意义。     

杭州湾海域50年一遇波浪数值模拟研究

杭州湾外围海域岛礁众多,波浪传播机制复杂。为了了解该海域的波浪分布特征,采用MIKE 21 SW模块建立了杭州湾海域波浪数值模型,利用实测波浪资料对模型进行了验证,结果表明该模型适用于模拟杭州湾海域的波浪传播。利用1970—2002年嵊山海洋站实测极值波浪资料推算50年一遇波浪要素,将其作为模型边界条件,对杭州湾海域50年一遇的设计波浪进行了模拟,并对该海域的波浪传播特征进行了分析。结果表明,杭州湾内波高较之外海明显减小,外围众多岛礁起到了很好的遮挡保护作用。     

迎接新世纪铀矿地质科研的新任务

文章分析了即将到来的新世纪铀矿地质科研面临的新形势,提出其指导思想应为地质总局主攻可地浸砂岩型铀矿的总方针服务,其具体任务是：加强可地浸砂岩型铀矿的平价和靶区优选研究;开发可地浸砂岩到铀矿勘查的新技术和新方法;把成矿模式攻矿床模式发展为找矿模式;加强铀矿经济地质和铀资源动态评系统研究并建立中新生代盆地和砂岩型铀矿数据库。该工业北京地质研究院作为铀矿地质科研的排头兵,为保障新世纪铀矿地质科研任务的完     

21世纪的石林旅游业

21世纪石林旅游会遇到良好的机遇和面临严峻的挑战。石林要在21世纪能做到可持续性发展旅游业,就必须严格保护资源和生态环境。还必须尽早做好如下工作:(1)建立新型的石林国家公园;(2)建立石林游客中心和石林博物馆,做好科普工作;(3)建立石林图书馆和信息中心;(4)加强石林研究中心和石林研究基金建设,不断为游客提供新知识;(5)加强新型、先进的服务设施建设,为游客进行知识创新、交流和商务活动提供良好条件;(6)不断对石林管理人员、职工和导游进行培训,不断更新他们的知识。      

Local Agenda 21 and Barriers to Sustainability at the Local Government Level in Victoria,Australia

At the 1992 Rio 'Earth Summit', Australia joined other nations in committing to processes leading to the formulation of 'Local Agenda 21s' (LA21s) by 1996. Subsequently, in the latter year, Whittaker carried out a national survey of local government authorities to evaluate what progress had been made. Whittaker's conclusion was that progress in Australia had been slow, but ten 'leading-edge' Victorian councils were identified through a self-reporting process. In this paper we discuss the concept of LA21, analyse in closer detail the 'progress' that has been made in the ten Victorian councils, and discuss some of the broader forces that, we argue, have made LA21 formulation increasingly difficult, particularly in the state of Victoria in the recent past.     

Modeling of climate change impacts on Lake Burullus,coastal lagoon (Egypt)

Coastal lagoons are particularly vulnerable to climate change, in particular, Sea Level Rise (SLR) due to their shallowness. Lake Burullus provides a variety of socio-economic services as the second largest coastal lagoon in Egypt. Recently, it has experienced significant ecological deterioration. Thus, its ecosystem is fragile in the face of anthropogenic induced changes. The main objective of the current study is to investigate the climate change impacts on characteristics of Lake Burullus. A depth averaged hydro-ecological modeling system, MIKE21, was applied to develop an eco - hydrodynamic model for the lake. The developed model was calibrated and verified for two successive years: July 2011–June 2012 and July 2012–June 2013. The model simulations exhibited good agreement with the measurements during the calibration and verification processes. Six different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were compared, using six different statistical metrics, to determine the most accurate one for the study area. The required meteorological input, including surface air temperature, precipitation, and evaporation were derived from the selected RCM. The meteorological input was extracted for two different years in the 21 ^st century considering one Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Report. Regional SLR projections for the Mediterranean Sea for the selected RCP scenario and the two studied years were obtained. These future climate change estimates were used to modify the validated model of the lake. A sensitivity analysis was applied to assess effect of future climatic conditions and SLR, separately. The results revealed that the lake water depths will increase and it will be warmer and more saline. Significant spatial variability of the studied parameters under climate change forcing is expected. Consequently, climate change is going to restrict the lake's ability to preserve the present-day species. An urgent management plan involving adaptation works, should be implemented to reduce such potential species losses in Egyptian lagoons.