福建安海湾表层沉积物粒度特征及其现代沉积过程分析

通过对福建安海湾表层沉积物的粒度分析和对比,应用系统聚类分析、粒径趋势模型和切应力计算公式,探讨了研究区粒度的分布特征、沉积环境分区、表层沉积物输运趋势及其影响因素.研究结果表明,研究区包括6种表层沉积物类型,以黏土质粉砂和粉砂为主,沉积物大体呈现自海湾两侧潮滩向潮汐通道变粗的分布趋势.表层沉积物粒度的分布特征与水动力条件和物质来源密切相关,湾口附近及湾内深槽内,细颗粒的沉积物被再悬浮带走,粗颗粒的含量增大;在湾内潮滩上,悬浮物质因水动力作用逐渐减弱发生分选沉降,形成向岸变细的横向分异.海湾外泥沙随潮流不断地向海湾东侧岸滩运移,海湾周边陆源来沙由湾顶部往湾口方向下泄,两者是导致表层沉积物出现明显的顺时针方向汇聚趋势的原因之一;表层沉积物的输运趋势、悬浮泥沙的输运、潮滩植被与湾口沙嘴的遮蔽效应共同影响了研究区内浅滩地形的形成和变化.研究区可分为四类沉积环境区,以潮滩和潮汐通道环境为主,不同沉积区内的粒度参数、粒级频率和敏感粒级均有差异,动力条件差异和不同物源的影响程度是现代沉积环境格局的主要影响因素.     

Trends in Spatial Statistics

With many leading spatial analysts nearing retirement, reflection on the discipline becomes beneficial. To capture some of their collective perspective, fifty-eight researchers were surveyed on key spatial analysis developments, future challenges, and essential readings for newcomers. Geographic information systems (GIS), new data sources, improved understanding of spatial autocorrelation, spatially local methods, and the spread of spatial analysis beyond geography featured prominently among the twenty-four respondents. Future challenges included overcoming methodological limitations and retaining spatial analysis within geography. Twelve books highlighted by respondents are also summarized. Finally, a synthesis and some thoughts based on survey results are presented.     

Evaluation of recent hydro-climatic changes in four tributaries of the Niger River Basin (West Africa)

West Africa experienced severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s, posing a threat to water resources. A wetter climate more recently suggests recovery from the drought. The Mann-Kendall trend and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect probable trends in weather elements in four sub-basins of the Niger River Basin between 1970 and 2010. The cross-entropy method was used to detect breakpoints in rainfall and runoff, Spearman’s rank test for correlation between the two, and cross-correlation analysis for possible lags. Results showed an overall increase in rainfall and runoff and a decrease in sunshine duration. Spearman’s coefficients suggest significant (5%) moderate to strong rainfall–runoff correlation for three sub-basins. A significant lower runoff was observed around 1979, with a rainfall break around 1992, indicating possible cessation of the drought. Temperatures increased significantly, at 0.02–0.05°C year^-1, with a negative wind speed trend for most stations. Half of the stations exhibited an increase in potential evapotranspiration.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR Not assigned     

Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km²) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.     

Comparison of trends in stream water quality

A method is described for assessing the strength of evidence for differences in the trends in chemical concentrations in stream water between catchments. A smoothing spline technique is used to model changes in water quality as a result of changes in flow rates, seasonal effects and an underlying trend. The method involves fitting the model twice, once with the underlying trends constrained to be identical for each river and once with the trends unconstrained. Statistical properties are assessed by simulation methods that allow for the autocorrelation in the residuals from the unconstrained fit. The method is applied to data from two streams in the Balquhidder catchments in the Highlands of Scotland and to data from the Dee, Don and Ythan rivers in the north‐east of Scotland. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

生态系统服务研究动态及地理学研究范式

生态系统服务是目前国际上相关研究热点之一.本文综述了国内外生态系统服务研究的进展、存在问题和发展趋势.在此基础上,针对目前生态系统服务研究生态学范式存在的问题,提出了地理学在此领域的研究范式和优先主题.研究认为,从地理学视角研究生态系统服务,应当以空间异质性和区域差异作为切入点,紧紧围绕生态系统结构与功能-生态系统服务-人类社会福祉这一主线,始终将"自然系统提供生态服务与社会经济系统内化消费"之间的耦合联系作为研究核心,综合集成分析社会经济系统对自然资本内化的响应.通过建构生态系统服务的地理学研究范式,不仅可以拓展生态系统服务研究的深度和广度,而且有助于提升自然和社会经济系统的集成分析水平,进而推动地理学综合研究进程.同时,也为地理学的核心命题--人地关系研究提供重要的实践领域.     

Water-quality trends in White Rock Creek Basin from 1912-1994 identified using sediment cores from White Rock Lake reservoir, Dallas, Texas

Historical trends in selected water-quality variables from 1912 to 1994 in White Rock Creek Basin were identified by dated sediment cores from White Rock Lake. White Rock Lake is a 4.4-km² reservoir filled in 1912 and located on the north side of Dallas, Texas, with a drainage area of 259 km². Agriculture dominated land use in White Rock Creek Basin before about 1950. By 1990, 72% of the basin was urban. Sediment cores were dated using cesium-137 and core lithology. Major element concentrations changed, and sedimentation rates and percentage of clay-sized particles in sediments decreased beginning in about 1952 in response to the change in land use. Lead concentrations, normalized with respect to aluminum, were six times larger in sediment deposited in about 1978 than in pre-1952 sediment. Following the introduction of unleaded gasoline in the 1970s, normalized lead concentrations in sediment declined and stabilized at about two and one-half times the pre-1952 level. Normalized zinc and arsenic concentrations increased 66 and 76%, respectively, from before 1952 to 1994. No organochlorine compounds were detected in sediments deposited prior to about 1940. Concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and DDE (a metabolite of DDT) increased rapidly beginning in the 1940s and peaked in the 1960s at 21 and 20 µg kg^-1, respectively, which is coincident with their peak use in the United States. Concentrations of both declined about an order of magnitude from the 1960s to the 1990s to 3.0 and 2.0 µg kg^-1, respectively. Chlordane and dieldrin concentrations increased during the 1970s and 1980s. The largest chlordane concentration was 8.0 µg kg^-1 and occurred in a sediment sample deposited in about 1990. The largest dieldrin concentration was 0.7 µg kg^-1 and occurred in the most recent sample deposited in the early 1990s. Agricultural use of chlordane and dieldrin was restricted in the 1970s; however, both were used as termiticides, and urban use of chlordane continued at least until 1990. Recent use of dieldrin and aldrin, which degrades to dieldrin, has not been reported; however, increasing trends in dieldrin since the 1970s suggest recent urban use could have occurred.     

农业技术扩散中的农户采用行为研究:国外进展与国内趋势

农户是我国农区的微观经济单元,是农业技术采用的行为主体。以农户为对象的农业技术扩散采用行为的研究对于诱导农户行为、提高农业技术的采用效率、促进农区发展具有重要的理论和应用价值。从研究视角、研究方法、研究内容3个方面对国内外相关研究成果进行较为系统的梳理,总结评述最新进展和特点,并在此基础上对农户技术采用行为的研究趋势进行展望,希冀有助于推进国内对农户技术采用行为的深入研究,进而为促进农业技术扩散与推广、提高农业科技成果转化率提供参考。     

山地冰川与湖泊萎缩所指示的亚洲中部气候干暖化趋势与未来展望

天山北坡乌鲁木齐河1号冰川与土尤克苏冰川物质平衡观察表示80年代比以前出现大的亏损。青海湖与伊赛克湖在近百年一直处于萎缩状态。从小冰期最盛时以来,乌鲁木齐河谷中冰川面积已缩去44％。上述及其他冰川与湖泊变化证据清楚地指示本世纪气候干暖化趋势增强了,并可能延续到下世纪初。但如由于CO_2及其他痕量气体增加所致的温室效应使下世纪重现全新世早、中期那样的高温,则亚洲中部有可能转为潮湿。     

地缘政治演变驱动力变化与地缘政治学研究新趋势

随着科技进步和经济、社会的发展,影响地缘政治格局演变的驱动力因子发生了显著变化。首先,技术的进步、高速运输工具的诞生,传统的地理空间关系和地域联系都发生了很大的变化,空间距离所产生的效应在降低;其次,地缘政治博弈主体间的力量对比发生变化,借助互联网,原来相对弱势的个人和非政府组织的地位和作用在上升;第三,在全球化的背景下,经济利益在国家战略中的地位上升,地缘政治的冲突逻辑,正逐渐让位于地缘经济的竞争逻辑;第四,与气候变化相关联的新因素对地缘政治格局的影响越来越显著,碳排放权等相对虚化的权利发展成为新的地缘政治争夺对象。在上述驱动力的作用下,地缘政治学发展和研究出现了新的趋势：① 更加关注全球问题和从全人类视角研究问题,传统的主权国家概念受到严重挑战;② 从对土地、能源矿产和海上战略通道等实体资源争夺,向信息权、碳排放权等相对虚拟的资源转变;③ 重视新的能源类型和新的地域空间对地缘政治格局的影响;④ 通过对传统地缘政治学的批判,在研究内容上向所谓的“低政治”问题拓展,地缘政治与地缘经济、地缘文化等交叉和融合成为趋势;⑤ 地缘政治学研究方法和手段更加多元;⑥ 中国实力的快速增长成为改变世界地缘政治格局的重要力量,也为地缘政治研究带来机遇。