Recent warming in the Yellow/East China Sea during winter and the associated atmospheric circulation

We examine characteristics in the variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Yellow/East China Sea during the boreal winter (December–January–February) for the period 1950–2008 in observations. It is found that the mean SST in the Yellow Sea/East China Sea gradually increases during recent decades. A warming trend of a basin scale SST is significant in most of the regions in the Yellow/East Sea, which is well explained by the variability of the first empirical orthogonal function SST mode. We suggest one candidate mechanism that the North Pacific oscillation (NPO)-like sea level pressure play an important role to warm the Yellow/East China Sea. Anomalous anticyclonic circulation, which is the southern lobe of NPO-like sea level pressure over the North Pacific, causes a weakening of northerly mean winds over the Yellow/East China Sea during winter. This contributes to increase in the SST in the Yellow/East China Sea through the changes in the latent heat and sensible heat fluxes.     

汶川8.0级地震前地下流体长趋势变化特征讨论

通过对汶川M_S8.0地震震中周围地区震前地下流体长期观测资料的分析表明, 震前地下流体出现了长趋势变化, 其特征是时间早、 范围广, 具有协调性以及向未来震中迁移等特征, 形态主要为趋势转折、 破年变、 加速等, 其中大多数为趋势转折变化。 进一步对比研究地壳形变、 地下流体长趋势变化发现, 地壳形变和地下流体长趋势变化迁移特征一致, 地壳形变长趋势时间较早于地下流体长趋势变化时间, 形变出现张压变化与水位变化有比较密切的关系, 即形变大部分出现缓慢压性变化或张性减缓变化, 水位大部分出现缓慢上升或下降减缓变化。 最后讨论了地下流体长趋势变化机理。     

基于ANSYS的2.5维直流电法正演模拟

从点电源场中电位满足的微分方程出发,给定相对应边界条件,结合有限元软件ANSYS的强大分析计算功能,通过使用ANSYS本身提供的APDL语言编制相应的计算程序,进行了大量的2.5维直流电法正演计算,取得了很好的效果,证明了ANSYS在地球物理数值模拟方面有着广泛的应用前景,具有很好的理论价值和应用价值.     

SWAT model application and prediction uncertainty analysis in the Lake Tana Basin,Ethiopia

Lake Tana Basin is of significant importance to Ethiopia concerning water resources aspects and the ecological balance of the area. Many years of mismanagement, wetland losses due to urban encroachment and population growth, and droughts are causing its rapid deterioration. The main objective of this study was to assess the performance and applicability of the soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model for prediction of streamflow in the Lake Tana Basin, so that the influence of topography, land use, soil and climatic condition on the hydrology of Lake Tana Basin can be well examined. The physically based SWAT model was calibrated and validated for four tributaries of Lake Tana. Sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI‐2), parameter solution (ParaSol) and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) calibration and uncertainty analysis methods were compared and used for the set‐up of the SWAT model. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0·5. The hydrological water balance analysis of the basin indicated that baseflow is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. More than 60% of losses in the watershed are through evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High resolution WRF climatic simulations for the Iberian Peninsula: Model validation

A high resolution atmospheric modelling study was done for a 20-year recent historical period. The dynamic downscaling approach adopted used the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to drive the WRF running in climate mode. Three online nested domains were used covering part of the North Atlantic and Europe, with a resolution 81 km, and reaching 9 km in the innermost domain which covers the Iberian Peninsula.This paper presents the validation of the WRF configuration, which is based on historic simulations between 1986 and 2005 and observational datasets of near surface temperature and precipitation for the same period. The validation was done in terms of comparison of probability distributions between model results and observations, as daily climatologies, spatially averaged inside subdomains obtained with cluster analysis of the observations, for each of the four seasons. In addition, Taylor diagrams are presented for each of the seasons and subdomains. This validation approach was repeated with the results of a new WRF simulation with the same parameterisations but forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The capacity of the MPI-ESM driven WRF configuration to compare with observations and in a manner similar to the ERA-Interim driven WRF, ensures the capacity of the configuration for climate and climate change studies.Considering the difficulty to simulate extremes in long term simulations, the results showed a comfortable comparison of both models (forced by climate model and reanalysis results) with observations. This provides us confidence on the continuity of using the MPI-ESM driven WRF configuration for climate studies.     

Clarifying the distal to proximal tephrochronology of the Millennium (B–Tm) eruption,Changbaishan Volcano,northeast China

Tephra dispersed during the Millennium eruption (ME), Changbaishan Volcano, NE China provides one of the key stratigraphic links between Asia and Greenland for the synchronization of palaeoenvironmental records. However, controversy surrounds proximal-distal tephra correlations because (a) the proposed proximal correlatives of the distal ME tephra (i.e. B–Tm) lack an unequivocal chronostratigraphic context, and (b) the ME tephra deposits have not been chemically characterized for a full spectrum of element using grain-specific techniques. Here we present grain-specific glass chemistry, including for the first time, single grain trace element data, for a composite proximal sequence and a distal tephra from Lake Kushu, northern Japan (ca. 1100 km away from Changbaishan). We demonstrate a robust proximal-distal correlation and that the Kushu tephra is chemically associated with the ME/B–Tm. We propose that three of the proximal pyroclastic fall units were erupted as part of the ME. The radiocarbon chronology of the Kushu sedimentary record has been utilised to generate a Bayesian age-depth model, providing an age for the Kushu tephra which is consistent with high resolution ages determined for the eruption and therefore supports our geochemical correlation. Two further Bayesian age-depth models were independently constructed each incorporating one of two ice-core derived ages for the B–Tm tephra, providing Bayesian modelled ages of 933–949 and 944–947 cal AD (95.4%) for the Kushu tephra. The high resolution ice-core tephra ages imported into the deposition models help test and ultimately constrain the radiocarbon chronology in this interval of the Lake Kushu sedimentary record. The observed geochemical diversity between proximal and distal ME tephra deposits clearly evidences the interaction of two compositionally distinct magma batches during this caldera forming eruption.     

我国业务化海洋观测仪器发展探讨——浅析中美海洋站仪器的差异、趋势及对策

海洋站业务化观测仪器是业务化海洋观测系统的重要实体支撑。将我国海洋站中典型的国产业务化测量仪器与美国同类仪器在性能指标方面进行了对比分析,结合世界前沿海洋仪器发展现状总结了未来主要发展趋势,探讨了我国业务化海洋仪器优先发展的主要方向。结果表明,相比美国,我国国产验潮仪精度低1个数量级,测波仪的波高、周期和波向精度分别平均低0.2 m、0.27 s和5°~10°,国产观测仪器在业务运行可靠性和稳定性方面存在不足。世界海洋观测装备将更加信息化、智能化、专业化和模块化,并通过谱系化发展使其功能日臻完善,可靠性不断提高。在此趋势下,我国业务化海洋观测仪器应优先重点发展高精度传感原件和材料、抗生物污损和防腐蚀技术以及智能电子电路、人工智能和自动化技术等。