全球变化与区域干旱化

本文总结了已完成的国家重点基础研究发展规划计划项目(“973”项目)“我国生存环境演变和北方干旱化趋势预测”(1999～2004年)和正在执行的“973”项目“北方干旱化与人类适应”的有关干旱化问题研究的部分成果。主要是中国科学院大气物理研究所最近几年在近代区域干旱化的事实及全球联系方面的研究进展,并对全球增暖背景下区域干旱化的形成机理展开讨论。     

中国冬半年最低气温概率分布特征

 根据1955-2005年中国160个站冬半年 (当年11月至翌年4月)平均最低气温资料,使用统计检验的方法,分析了近50 a中国冬半年最低气温的突变事实,在此基础上给出了气候变暖前后最低气温的概率分布,比较了变暖前后时段全国最低气温空间分布的差异。结果表明：1) 20世纪80年代末中国冬半年最低气温发生了显著突变,进入异常增暖时期,其增温程度比平均气温明显;2) 增暖后中国最低气温的概率分布发生了明显的变化,最低气温偏冷的概率显著减小,偏暖的概率明显增大;3)气候变暖后除西南地区最低气温上升幅度不显著外,其余地区均呈现显著增温趋势。     

Climate Change in China Congruent with the Linear Trends of the Annular Modes

The authors exploit the remarkable connection between the Chinese climate trends and the annular modes by partitioning the trends into components linearly congruent with and linearly independent of the annular modes. Results show that the winter hemisphere annular mode has closer connection to Chinese climate than the summer one, e.g., the wetting JJA (June-July-August) rainfall trend along the Yangtze River valley and the associated temperature trends are significantly linearly congruent with the trend of the southern annular mode, while the JFM (January-February-March) climate trends are closely linked to the northern annular mode. The seasonal differences of a meridional wave-train-like chain across the equatorial Pacific associated with the annular modes are responsible for the seasonal-dependent connections to Chinese climate. Citation: Zhou, T. J., and J. Li, 2008: Climate change in China congruent with the linear trends of the annular modes, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 1-7     

The Late Miocene climate response to a modern Sahara desert

The climate cooling and vegetation changes in the Miocene/Pliocene are generally well documented by various proxy data. Some important ecosystem changes occurred at that time. Palaeobotanical evidence suggests that the Sahara desert first appeared in the Pliocene, whereas in the Miocene North Africa was green. In the present study, we investigate the Late Miocene climate response to the appearance of the Sahara desert from a climate modelling sensitivity experiment. We compare a model experiment, which includes a full set of Late Miocene boundary conditions, with another one using the same boundary conditions except that the North African vegetation refers to the present-day situation. Our sensitivity study demonstrates that the introduction of the Sahara desert leads to a cooling and an aridification in Africa. In addition, we observe teleconnection patterns related to the North African desertification at around the Miocene/Pliocene boundary. From our sensitivity experiment, we observe that the Sahara contributes to a cooling in Central Asia and in North America. As compared to hypsodonty data for Central Asia, an increased aridity is underestimated in the Sahara experiment. Finally, we observe that the introduction of the Sahara leads to a cooling in the northern high latitudes. Hence, our sensitivity experiment indicates that the appearance of the Sahara desert is one piece to better understand Late Cenozoic climate cooling being most pronounced in the high latitudes.     

Trees, lateral shrinkage and building damage

This article presents the study conducted and the actions taken to stabilise the foundations of 25 low-rise (two/three-storey) buildings in Alcázar de San Juan (Ciudad Real, central Spain). Owing to the immediate attention required, it was decided that the study would focus on procuring a synthetic model that would be able to provide a satisfactory explanation for the tendency of the movements, overlooking the detailed model of each building. This analysis pointed out that the mobilisation was probably due to both the shrinkage caused by the existing trees during the dry-growing seasons, and to the loss of lateral confinement caused by the excavation of a service trench adjacent to the footings of the buildings. In keeping with this mechanism, stabilization was carried out by transplanting the trees growing near the damaged buildings and installing a line of piles to provide lateral support to the footings. The evolution of the damage was therefore stopped.     

Non-uniform across-shelf variations in thickness, grain size, and frequency of turbidites in a transgressive outer-shelf, the Middle Pleistocene Kakinokidai Formation, Boso Peninsula, Japan

Across-shelf variations in thickness, grain size, and frequency of sandstone beds in a transgressive outer-shelf succession were investigated from the Middle Pleistocene (ca. 0.7 Ma) Kakinokidai Formation on the Boso Peninsula, Japan. The transgressive deposits are generally muddy and contain slumps and slump scars. The intercalated sandstone beds are interpreted to have been formed from turbidity currents as a response to erosion and resuspension of sandridge-complex deposits in the southwestern upslope area during storm events. Mapping of volcanic ash beds and a transgressive surface in the base of the formation permits detailed bed-by-bed correlation of the outer-shelf sandstone beds. Although, overall, thickness, grain size, and frequency of sandstone beds decrease in the downslope direction, some sandstone beds locally thin out and coarsen in association with slump scars in the surrounding muddy deposits. These sandstone beds subsequently thicken and fine, and finally thin out in the farther downslope area. In addition to the local thinning of sandstone beds, the frequency of sandstone beds first decreases and then increases in the farther offshore direction. From this evidence, we concluded that these non-uniform patterns of across-outer-shelf variations in thickness, grain size, and frequency of sandstone beds were caused by the local increases in flow speeds and subsequent expansion and reduced speeds of turbidity currents, along with a local increase in the seafloor gradient that was induced by the development of slump scars in the transgressive outer-shelf floor. These physiographic features in the outer shelf are interpreted not to have permitted monotonous downslope thinning and fining of sandstone beds, compared with the bed-shape models of depletive turbidity currents and with the proximality trend of shelf sandstones from modern and ancient highstand-stage shelf systems.     

Flexural isostasy in the Bolivian Andes: Chaco foreland basin development

The Chaco foreland basin was initiated during the late Oligocene as a result of thrusting in the Eastern Cordillera in response to Nazca–South America plate convergence. Foreland basins are the result of the flexural isostatic response of an elastic plate to orogenic and/or thrust sheet loading. We carried out flexural modelling along a W–E profile (21.4°S) to investigate Chaco foreland basin development using new information on ages of foreland basin strata, elastic and sedimentary thicknesses and structural histories. It was possible to reproduce present-day elevation, gravity anomaly, Moho depth, elastic thicknesses, foreland sedimentary thicknesses and the basin geometry. Our model predicted the basin geometry and sedimentary thicknesses for different evolutionary stages. Measured thicknesses and previously proposed depozones were compared with our predictions. Our results shed more light on the Chaco foreland basin evolution and suggest that an apparent decrease in elastic thickness beneath the Eastern Cordillera and the Interandean Zone could have occurred between 14 and 6 Ma.     

Physical modelling of sand injectites

Sand injectites are structures that result from intrusion of fluidized sand into fractures. We have studied them in the Tampen Spur area of the North Sea, and have reproduced them experimentally, by driving compressed air through layers of sand, glass microspheres, and silica powder. The silica powder was cohesive and capable of hydraulic fracturing, whereas the sand and glass microspheres were almost non-cohesive and therefore able to fluidize. The models were dynamically similar to their natural counterparts, for as long as equilibrium was static. When the processes became dynamic, so that inertial forces were significant, the scaling was approximate and the corresponding Reynolds numbers differed. The experimental apparatus was a square box, 1 m × 1 m wide, resting on a grid of fluid diffusers. During the experiments, the fluid pressure increased, until it attained and surpassed the weight of overburden. Flat-lying hydraulic fractures, containing air, formed within cohesive and least permeable layers. Heterogeneities in material properties and layer thicknesses were responsible for localizing fracture networks. When any one network broke through to the surface, rapid flow of air through the fractures fluidized the underlying mobile materials and even depleted some of the layers. Some of the fluidized material extruded at the surface through vents, forming volcanoes and sheets. The remainder lodged at depth, forming sand injectites or laccoliths. Conical sand injectites formed preferentially, where layers had high resistance to bending. Laccoliths formed nearer the surface, where overlying layers had low resistance to bending. The experimental sand injectites were broadly similar to those in the Tampen Spur area of the North Sea, as well as other areas.     

Numerical modelling of soil nails in loose fill slope under surcharge loading

A plane–strain numerical model has been developed to mimic a nailed loose fill slope under surcharge loading. The model has been used to back-analyse a field test that was conducted to examine the behaviour of soil nails in loose fill slopes under surcharge loading. Incremental elasto-plastic analyses coupled with pore water diffusion have been performed to study the internal deformation, water content redistribution in the soil, and the performance of the soil nails during and after the application of surcharge loading. The model parameters describing the mechanical and hydraulic properties of the nailed slope were obtained from field or laboratory tests. Different modelling techniques and boundary conditions for mimicking soil–nail interaction in loose fill material have been examined. Comparisons between numerical predictions and field measurements demonstrate that a new interfacial model, denoted as the embedded bond–slip interface model, is more suitable for mimicking the interfacial behaviour. Despite the simplicity of the numerical model, the predicted responses are in close agreement with the field test results, in particular the mobilisation and distribution of nail forces in response to surcharge loading. Both the numerical and the field test results suggest that soil nails are capable of increasing the overall stability of a loose fill slope for the loading conditions considered in this study. The increase in confining stress along the soil nails near the surcharge area is central to the overall stabilising mechanism. On the contrary, the nail forces mobilised near the nail heads are much smaller, indicating that the beneficial effect of having a structural grillage system at the slope face is limited for the range of surcharge pressures considered in this study.     

Numerical simulations of the Mediterranean sea outflow: impact of the entrainment parameterization in an isopycnic coordinate ocean model

Gravity current entrainment is essential in determining the properties of the interior ocean water masses that result from marginal sea overflows. Although the individual entraining billows will be unresolvable in large-scale ocean models for the foreseeable future, some large-scale simulations are now being carried out that do resolve the intermediate scale environment which may control the rate of entrainment. Hallberg [Mon. Wea. Rev. 128 (2000) 1402] has recently developed an implicit diapycnal mixing scheme for isopycnic coordinate ocean models that includes the Richardson number dependent entrainment parameterization of Turner [J. Fluid Mech. 173 (1986) 431], and which may be capable of representing the gravity current evolution in large-scale ocean models. The present work uses realistic regional simulations with the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) to evaluate ability of this scheme to simulate the entrainment that is observed to occur in the bottom boundary currents downstream of the Mediterranean outflow. These simulations are strikingly similar to the observations, indicating that this scheme does produce realistic mixing between the Mediterranean outflow and the North Atlantic Central Water. Sensitivity studies identify the critical Richardson number below which vigorous entrainment occurs as a particularly important parameter. Some of these experiments also show meddies detaching from the Mediterranean undercurrent at locations that appear to be highly influenced by topographic features.