AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN ESTABLISHING AN INDEX FOR THE EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SATISFACTION

An evaluation index is a prerequisite for scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service. This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators. Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian (China) in 2010, this study investigates the suitability of the fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index. Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators, correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer, then one indicator could be removed, or the two indicators merged. For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers, although clustering reveals attribute correlations, these indicators may not be substituted for one another. Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.     

Bayesian model selection for sand with generalization ability evaluation

Current studies have focused on selecting constitutive models using optimization methods or selecting simple formulas or models using Bayesian methods. In contrast, this paper deals with the challenge to propose an effective Bayesian-based selection method for advanced soil models accounting for the soil uncertainty. Four representative critical state-based advanced sand models are chosen as database of constitutive model. Triaxial tests on Hostun sand are selected as training and testing data. The Bayesian method is enhanced based on transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whereby the generalization ability for each model is simultaneously evaluated, for the model selection. The most plausible/suitable model in terms of predictive ability, generalization ability, and model complexity is selected using training data. The performance of the method is then validated by testing data. Finally, a series of drained triaxial tests on Karlsruhe sand is used for further evaluating the performance.     

Rise and fall of recent Chinese coastal resort development: Case of Beihai Silver Beach, Guangxi, China

Based upon a case study of Silver Beach coastal resort of Beihai, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, this article examines the rise and fall of Chinese coastal tourist resort development since the 1980s. It explores the causes for and responses to the decline of Chinese coastal resorts. The data were collected through in-depth interviews with twelve local key information providers, and secondary information sources such as government archives, survey reports, and resort plans. It was found that the rise and fall of Chinese coastal resorts in the last three decades is closely linked to the transitional reform from a central planned economy to a market economy. Three stages of coastal tourism development were identified in a sequence of rapid growth, decline and redevelopment. It was government financial funds and high local government involvement that promoted the rapid expansion of coastal resorts during the 1980s. However, coastal resort decline occurred when transitional reform was intensified and deflationary policy executed after 1992. Institutional failure is found to be the main reason of Chinese coastal resorts decline since the mid-1990s. The government-dominated pattern could not be sustained and should be restructured in forthcoming coastal tourism development in China. Revival strategies should emphasize enhancing market-oriented reform in the declining resorts on both supply and demand sides.     

Boundary shift of potential suitable agricultural area in farming-grazing transitional zone in Northeastern China under background of climate change during 20th century

Climate change affected the agricultural expansion and the formation of farming-grazing transitional patterns during historical periods. This study analyzed the possible range of the boundary shift of the potential suitable agriculture area in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China during the 20th century. Based on modem weather data, 1 km-resolution land cover data, historical climatic time series, and estimation by using similar historical climatic scenes, the following was concluded： 1） The climate conditions of suitable agriculture areas in the farming-grazing transitional zone in the northeastern China between 1971 and 2000 required an average annual temperature above 1℃ or ≥ 0℃ accumulated temperature above 2500℃-2700℃, and annual precipitation above 350 mm. 2） The northern boundary of the potential suitable agriculture area during the relatively warmer period of 1890-1910 was approximately located at the position of the 1961-2000 area. The northern boundary shifted back to the south by 75 km on average during the colder period of the earlier 20th century, whereas during the modem warm period of the 1990s, the area shifted north by 100 km on average. 3） The western and eastern boundaries of the suitable agricul~re area during the heaviest drought periods between 1920s and 1930s had shifted northeast by 250 km and 125 km, respectively, contrasting to the boundaries of 1951-2008. For the wettest period, that is, the 1890s to the 1910s, the shift of western and eastern boundaries was to the southwest by 125 km and 200 km, respectively, compared with that in the 1951-2008 period. This study serves as a reference for identifying a climatically sensitive area and planning future land use and agricultural production in the study area.     

转型期中国城市公共服务设施供给模式及其形成机制研究

城市公共服务设施供给模式与社会经济背景紧密相关,改革开放以来,社会经济体制转型促使我国城市公共服务设施供给模式发生变革,其供给主体结构由计划经济时期的单一化政府垄断转向政府公共部门、市场企业组织及社会非营利组织多元参与;在供给主体的制度设计上,供给决策由政治主导转向利益驱动,生产与提供机制由一体化转向垂直分离,垂直层级式管理机制也逐步转型为政府主导下的全方位监督。多元化供给主体及多样化机制组合驱动城市公共服务设施供给模式综合变革,是转型期制度政策因素、市场因素和社会因素共同作用的结果,体现出结构—能动性互动机制。     

贵州雷公山地区摆吉锑矿矿床成因探讨

雷公山地区系多期次构造运动形成的古隆起区,即雷公山复背斜,出露地层为上元古界浅变质岩系。该区位于不同时期逆冲推覆滑脱面发育的昂因断层、西江断层之间,两断层间发育的过渡性剪切带和脆性断裂构造系统,控制了雷公山锑矿带的分布;斜列的次级背斜所显示的构造高     

陕北榆林市耕地变化的驱动机制及其情景分析

选取地处北方农牧交错带的陕北榆林市作为典型研究区,利用历年土地利用详查及其变更数据,并结合野外调研资料,对该区近10年来县域耕地资源变化态势,以及土地退化、退耕还林还草、农业结构调整等因素对耕地变化的影响机理进行了系统研究。主要结论是:(1)榆林市耕地面积总量呈减少趋势,且在不同时段和空间上呈现出显著差异性;(2)土地退化、退耕还林还草、农业结构调整与建设占用是榆林市耕地减少的4个主要原因,其贡献率达98%;(3)草地和未利用地开垦是榆林市耕地面积增加的主要原因,分别占耕地增加总量的48%和39%;(4)未来10年榆林市耕地面积仍以减少为主,但耕地质量会有不同程度的提高。     

水陆过渡带的三维地震勘探方法

单纯水上和陆地三维地震勘探技术已经非常成熟,对于水陆过渡带条件下的三维地震勘探存在诸多困难。笔者在山东微山湖济宁三号井的三维地震勘探中,地表遍布芦苇、鱼塘、沼泽。条件十分复杂。针对这种情况,在激发和接收中采取了特别技术措施,获得了较好的野外采集资料,在处理中采用地表一致性子波反褶积和地表高程校正,最终地震资料既有较高的信噪比又有较好的分辨率,完成了预定的地质任务,为水陆过渡带三维地震勘探积累了成功经验。     

Hybrid event beds dominated by transitional‐flow facies: character,distribution and significance in the Maastrichtian Springar Formation,north‐west Vøring Basin,Norwegian Sea

Hybrid event beds comprising clay‐poor and clay‐rich sandstone are abundant in Maastrichtian‐aged sandstones of the Springar Formation in the north‐west Vøring Basin, Norwegian Sea. This study focuses on an interval, informally referred to as the Lower Sandstone, which has been penetrated in five wells that are distributed along a 140 km downstream transect. Systematic variations in bed style within this stratigraphic interval are used to infer variation in flow behaviour in relatively proximal and distal settings, although individual beds were not correlated. The Lower Sandstone shows an overall reduction in total thickness, bed amalgamation, sand to mud ratio and grain size in distal wells. Turbidites dominated by clay‐poor sandstone are at their most common in relatively proximal wells, whereas hybrid event beds are at their most common in distal wells. Hybrid event beds typically comprise a basal clay‐poor sandstone (non‐stratified or stratified) overlain by banded sandstone, with clay‐rich non‐stratified sandstone at the bed top. The dominant type of clay‐poor sandstone at the base of these beds varies spatially; non‐stratified sandstone is thickest and most common proximally, whereas stratified sandstone becomes dominant in distal wells. Stratified and banded sandstone record progressive deposition of the hybrid event bed. Thus, the facies succession within hybrid event beds records the longitudinal heterogeneity of flow behaviour within the depositional boundary layer; this layer changed from non‐cohesive at the front, through a region of transitional behaviour (fluctuating non‐cohesive and cohesive flow), to cohesive behaviour at the rear. Spatial variation in the dominant type of clay‐poor sandstone at the bed base suggests that the front of the flow remained non‐cohesive, and evolved from high‐concentration and turbulence‐suppressed to increasingly turbulent flow; this is thought to occur in response to deposition and declining sediment fallout. This research may be applicable to other hybrid event bed prone systems, and emphasizes the dynamic nature of hybrid flows.     

基于高分辨率遥感影像的湿地互花米草-芦苇混合交错带提取方法

互花米草是中国东部河口滩涂湿地主要入侵物种之一,其与本地物种芦苇竞争生长,形成了大范围的混合交错带。该交错带是研究湿地生态系统动态变化的重要信息,但因2种物种光谱的相似性及其在交错带的组成复杂性,使利用遥感技术提取交错带难度较大。因此,本文提出了一种将二者生长物候差异与其光谱特征相结合,考虑二者海陆位置分布差异,运用实测剖面观测数据确定光谱指标和阈值的综合提取方法。运用高分一号多光谱遥感数据,通过分析不同时相互花米草与芦苇冠层光谱差异,确定用来提取混合交错带的高分遥感影像,实现了研究区互花米草-芦苇混合交错带的提取。结果表明：不同时相宜选用不同的提取指标,本研究中在春季选择了近红外波段反射率,而秋季则选择了红波段反射率;2个时相的混合交错带范围存在明显差异,客观反映了互花米草与芦苇在不同季节的竞争状况。