2000年以来中国大陆5级以上地震近源区的相继发震特征与预测

通过对中国大陆除新疆和东北深震区以外的主要地区2000年以来5级以上地震活动特征的研究发现,5级以上地震近源区的相继发震是某些区域地震活动的重要特征。依据这一特征可以对今后研究区内5级以上地震的后续地震作中期预测。     

Groundwater recharge sources in semiarid irrigated mountain fronts

High-elevation mountains often constitute for basins important groundwater recharge sources through mountain-front recharge processes. These processes include streamflow losses and subsurface inflow from the mountain block. However, another key recharge process is from irrigation practices, where mountain streamflow is distributed across the irrigated piedmont. In this study, coupled groundwater fluctuation measurements and environmental tracers (¹⁸O, ²H, and major ions) were used to identify and compare the natural mountain-front recharge to the anthropogenically induced irrigation recharge. Within the High Atlas mountain front of the Ourika Basin, Central Morocco, the groundwater fluctuation mapping from the dry to wet season showed that recharge beneath the irrigated area was higher than the recharge along the streambed. Irrigation practices in the region divert more than 65% of the stream water, thereby reducing the potential for in-stream groundwater recharge. In addition, the irrigation areas close to the mountain front had greater water table increases (up to 3.5 m) compared with the downstream irrigation areas (<1 m increase). Upstream crops have priority to irrigation with stream water over downstream areas. The latter are only irrigated via stream water during large flood events and are otherwise supplemented by groundwater resources. These changes in water resources used for irrigation practices between upstream and downstream areas are reflected in the spatiotemporal evolution of the stable isotopes of groundwater. In the upstream irrigation area, the groundwater stable isotope values (δ¹⁸O: −8.4‰ to −7.4‰) reflect recharge by the diverted stream water. In the downstream irrigation area, the groundwater isotope values are lower (δ¹⁸O: −8.1‰ to −8.4‰) due to recharge via the flood water. In the nonirrigation area, the groundwater has the highest stable isotope values (δ¹⁸O: −6.8‰ to −4.8‰). This might be due to recharge via subsurface inflow from the mountain block to the mountain front and/or recharge via local low altitude rainfall. These findings highlight that irrigation practices can result in the dominant mountain-front recharge process for groundwater.     

基于均一化资料的中国大陆极端温度的长期趋势

近百年来,全球气候变暖。这与暖日和暖夜增加,冷日和冷夜减少相关联。文章研究结果进一步证实了这一发现。本文基于1960-2012年中国大陆542个台站均一化气温资料,通过将中国大陆划分为8个次区域,利用百分位定义法计算了极端温度指数序列,同时,运用时间趋势分析法,对中国大陆各区域极端温度和极端温度指数的时空分布及变化趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明:在全球变暖的背景下,从地理分布而言,中国大陆在过去53年除西南地区外,大部分地区最低和最高温度有显著的升高趋势,其中,东北温度升高最为明显;从季节而言,冬季极端温度升高最为明显,夏季升高最少;最低温度明显升高,最高温度也有所升高,但是最低温度的升高幅度更大。冷夜和冷日出现频率呈减少趋势,暖夜和暖日出现频率呈增加趋势,其中以冷夜指数变化最为突出,均呈现一种区域差异的现象。本文利用更新的资料验证了前人的工作,也进一步分区分析,结果可为更多地区评估以及进一步的相关研究提供参考。     

中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型

近年来的研究发现,瞬变扰动天气图上的扰动场天气系统对区域暴雨的落区指示能力强于传统天气图上的总场天气系统。为供预报员在业务预报中参考,本文划分1998年发生在中国东部地区的41日次区域暴雨为7类扰动场天气系统。与区域暴雨相联系的7类异常环流型分别是:华南切变线、华南涡旋、华南倒槽、长江切变线与槽、沿江涡旋、华北涡旋和东北涡旋。无论是在对流层的垂直剖面上,还是在850 hPa水平分布上,扰动天气图上位势高度低值和风扰动辐合处并配合大的水汽扰动对应有区域暴雨,而传统天气图上的低值系统和高水汽区与暴雨之间存在位置上的偏移。由此建议,用实况大气变量和中期数值模式产品绘制扰动天气图有助于预报员确定区域暴雨落区。     

苏鲁超高压变质带超镁铁岩深部碳酸盐交代作用的证据

中国大陆科学钻探工程第三先导孔(PP3钻孔),位于秦岭-大别-苏鲁超高压造山带的东部,赣榆岗上超镁铁岩体中。钻孔中超镁铁岩的岩性包括纯橄岩和石榴超镁铁岩等,该超镁铁岩的SiO_2含量均值在43.68%,变化范围为41.9%~47.11%;MgO均值在44.71%,变化范围为47.12%~48.62%;Cr_2O_3均值在0.39%,变化范围为0.30%~0.47%;CaO均值0.12%(变化范围为0.006%~0.34%);Na2O均值在0.05%(变化范围为0.005%~0.32%)。超镁铁质岩的Mg#(Mg/(Mg+Fe)×100)稳定在91.9~93.0之间,Cr#(Cr/(Cr+Fe)×100)均值在38,较高;变化在30~45之间,变化小。其中闪石化金云母超镁铁岩具有最低的值(Cr#=19)。Ni含量在2100×10~(-6)~2500×10~(-6),CaO含量均值为0.13%,Al_2O_3含量均值为0.41%。岩体成分均一,表现为高镁,低钙和低铝的特征。超镁铁岩的不相容元素和稀土元素总量很低,稀土元素总量均值在0.60×10~(-6)。(La/Yb)N比值在6.9~51.2,均值在16.1,重稀土元素严重亏损,是中国东部最亏损的地幔岩之一。超镁铁岩中橄榄石成分(Fo在88.7~93.1之间,Fa在6.8~11.1之间),从早期到晚期,岩石Fo值从93→91~92.4→88.7~89.1。铬尖晶石Cr#值从51到89变化,TiO_2和MnO_2值分别低于0.26%和0.46%,晚期铬尖晶石Cr#值增大,Ti含量减小。单斜辉石由透辉石(Wo_(45.9)8En_(47.89)Fs_(2.73)Ac_(3.39))和顽透辉石(Wo_(27.61)En_(68.78)Fs_(2.27)Ac_(1.34))两种,透辉石(Cpx_Ⅰ)在顽透辉石(Cpx_Ⅱ)中呈被交代的残余粒状。角闪石和金云母呈明显的条带状和脉状,局部发育。岩石具有弱的Na和K交代作用,较高的Sr和Ba等元素,亏损高场强元素(HSFE),以及特征的稀土元素和微量元素配分曲线;岩石中主要组成矿物橄榄石从早期到晚期,矿物Mg#指数下降(Mg#从93→88);单斜辉石中可看到透辉石被顽透辉石交代现象;次生角闪石和金云母的形成等特征都显示超镁铁岩经历了碳酸盐交代作用。在超镁铁岩矿物橄榄石中发现细小白云石和菱镁矿等碳酸盐矿物更有力证明了苏鲁超高压变质带超镁铁岩经历了深部碳酸盐交代作用。PP3钻孔超镁铁岩属于强烈亏损地幔岩区域,单斜辉石和角闪石等含水矿物在超镁铁岩中含量低,交代作用的范围和规模有限,且交代作用在动力学上是快速的和不平衡的过程。     

纪念中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年、国际大陆科学钻探委员会成立20周年

大陆科学钻探是“入地”的重要手段,是“深入地球内部的望远镜”。中国大陆科学钻探事业开展15周年以来,取得重要进展,获得全球地学界的高度关注,特别是2001年实施的中国第一口大陆科学深钻 （5158m）,成果辉煌,影响巨大。继后,又开展了青海湖环境科学钻探、松辽盆地白垩纪科学钻探、柴达木盐湖环境资源科学钻探,汶川地震断裂带科学钻探以及中国大陆科钻资源集成计划,总共钻进约 35km,显示了中国科学钻探方兴未艾的景象。为纪念国际大陆科学钻探20周年（1996~2016）和中国大陆科学钻探实施15周年（2001~2016）,本文回顾中国大陆科学钻探实施15年来的艰辛和奋斗的历程,展望中国大陆科学钻探的未来。     

基于地理格网分级法提取的中国传统村落空间分布

中国传统村落真实地记录了建筑、民俗民风和较原始的民居空间形态,是千百年来人类与自然和谐共存的生活基础。随着城市化进程加快,传统村落的存续受到了很大的挑战,为了更好地保护利用传统村落,对其进行多视角的研究尤为重要,除了微观层面的具体保护措施外,还应加强宏观层面的空间分布研究。地理格网是表达复杂地理现象、综合分析自然与人文数据、模拟地理系统功能与行为的基本方法。本文从百度影像地图提取村落坐标,并截取遥感影像作为村落点数据的判断补充,在此基础上,运用地理格网的分级法,对国家公布的三批中国传统村落(2555个)数据进行空间格局分析,结果表明：这些村落主要分布在中国东南部,如落在一级格网Ⅰ18、Ⅰ19就分别有586、781个村落,占三批传统村落总数的96.6%。通过对二级和三级格网的村落分布离散性进行分析,使传统村落的空间分布数据结构更加系统和清晰有序,为合理构建其数据库提供了框架基础。     

Emerging Chinese Cities: Implications for Global Urban Studies

Chinese cities are emerging in multiple senses: They have created new physical spaces to accommodate the fast urbanization of the country but have also developed new properties and characteristics along with urban transformation. The novelty created by emerging cities in China is not easily covered by Western urban theory. This article examines the dynamism of Chinese urban transformation, especially political economic changes vis-à-vis so-called neoliberalism, and spatial outcomes as diverse and contrasting spaces of formality and informality. Finally, this article speculates on implications for global urban studies.     

俯冲带碳酸盐化对深部碳循环的启示:以中国西南天山碳酸盐化云母片岩为例

俯冲带可将地球表层碳输送至深部地幔,同时也记录着俯冲板片来源碳质流体的迁移沉淀机制,对地球深部碳循环具有重大影响。近年来,俯冲带脱碳机制的研究表明流体溶解脱碳作用是冷的大洋俯冲板片释放COH流体的重要方式,而上覆板块(尤其地幔楔)则被认为是缓冲这些COH流体的重要场所,甚至是俯冲带CO_2的唯一"归宿"。事实上,俯冲带岩石本身的固碳能力却受到了忽视,而对俯冲带岩石捕获和固存CO_2(carbon capture and storage,CCS)能力的评估对全球碳通量的估算尤为重要。本文以中国西南天山高压-超高压变质带中碳酸盐化云母片岩为例,探讨俯冲带岩石的碳酸盐化对深部碳循环的影响。西南天山长阿吾子一带的碳酸盐化云母片岩记录了俯冲板片起源的碳质流体对俯冲带云母片岩的交代作用,地球化学特征表明蛇纹岩释放的富水流体溶解俯冲洋壳中的碳酸盐可能是产生COH流体的重要机制。基于碳质流体对多硅白云母(Si(a.p.f.u.)=3.58～3.73)的交代及相对高压的碳酸盐矿物(主要为白云石和菱镁矿)与金红石的共生,结合区域上碳酸盐化云母片岩与高压碳酸盐化蛇纹岩(HP-ophidolomite)的伴生,我们认为云母片岩的碳酸盐化作用可能发生在俯冲板片峰期稍后的高压折返阶段。俯冲带云母片岩的固碳作用表明除了上覆板块,俯冲带岩石本身对于碳质流体也具有很好的吸收能力。初步估算表明俯冲带云母片岩的碳酸盐化每年可固存至少2.46～6.68Mt/yr,约占俯冲板片每年进碳量的4%～17%。     

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.