Climate change of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: regional patterns of climatic changes in the Czech Republic — Part III

Accurate temperature–depth profiles may help to assess the temperature variations associated with the climate changes in the past. Ninety-eight ground surface temperature histories inverted from the temperature–depth borehole logs drilled on the territory of the Czech Republic [Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1995. Climate changes of the last millennium inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part I. Global Planet. Change 11, pp. 111–125; Bodri, L., ermák, V., 1997. Climate changes of the last two millennia inferred from borehole temperatures: results from the Czech Republic — Part II. Global Planet. Change 14, pp. 163–173.] are used to reconstruct the regional patterns of the respective climate change. The climate was mapped for the following periods: 1100–1300 A.D. (Little Climatic Optimum), 1400–1500 A.D., 1600–1700 A.D. (main phase of the Little Ice Age), and for the most recent climate trend after year 1960. Comparison of the obtained maps with the meteorological observations and proxy climatic reconstructions confirmed good applicability of the “geothermal” paleoclimatic reconstructions for the regional studies.     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Impacts of droughts on low flows and water quality near power stations

ABSTRACT

Power plants often use river waters for cooling purposes and can be sensitive to droughts and low flows. Water quality is also a concern, due to algal blooms and sediment loads that might clog filters. We assessed the impacts of droughts on river flow and water quality from the point of view of power plant operation. The INCA (INtegrated CAtchment) water quality model was coupled with a climate model to create a dataset of flow and water quality time series, using the River Trent (UK) as a case study. The result hints to a significant decrease in flows and an increase in phosphorus concentrations, potentially enhancing algal production. Power plants should expect more stress in the future based on the results of this study, due to reduced cooling water availability and decreasing upstream water quality. This issue might have serious consequences also on the whole national power network.     

Comparing performance indicators to characterize the water supply to the demands of the Guadiana River basin (Spain)

ABSTRACT

Water indicators and indices are useful tools to assess river basin performance, that is, to measure whether the basin operates satisfactorily under a wide range of possible future demands and hydrological conditions. Spanish regulations assess the performance of water demands by using reliability indicators (RIs), established by law in 2008. This article raises the possibility of updating RIs by comparing them with sustainability indicators (SIs). SIs are widely used for the assessment of river basin performance and several policy scenarios. We applied a water allocation model to the Guadiana River basin in Spain to compare indicators under three scenarios. The study was framed within the science of socio-hydrology, combining the physical environment of a water system with its influence on social aspects. SIs gave better results than RIs when comparing future scenarios. We also propose the introduction of a vulnerability indicator into Spanish regulations.     

基于年际增量法的华西秋雨预测模型建立及检验

利用1962—2018年华西地区301个气象台站秋季降水量资料和国家气候中心整理的130项气候系统指数，采用年际增量法建立了华西秋雨预测模型。首先通过相关分析挑选了4个与华西秋雨年际增量前3主模态密切相关的影响因子，进而采用多元线性回归方法进行建模，拟合时段和后报时段分别选为1962—1991年和1992—2018年。华西秋雨年际增量前3主模态累积值的预测模型通过了α=0.01的显著性水平检验，表明该模型具有较高的拟合预测能力。然后用相同的预测因子分别建立华西地区301个气象站点的华西秋雨年际增量预测模型，大部分模型都通过了显著性检验。用PS评分指标对预测效果进行检验，结果显示后报期年平均PS评分达74.5分。从空间分布来看后报期大部分站点的PS评分都超过60分，其中四川盆地南部、贵州东部和湖南西部等地超过80分。与华西各省和国家气候中心发布的近6年秋季降水预测PS评分进行比较，发现模型后报结果有显著优势。总体来看，用年际增量法建立的华西秋雨预测模型具有较高的预测技巧和实际应用价值。     

On the Epochal Variability in the Frequency of Cyclones during the Pre-Onset and Onset Phases of the Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean

In this paper we examine the epochal changes in the frequency of cyclones over the North Indian Ocean during the pre-onset and onset phases of the monsoon. We consider three epochs; namely, the early(1955-74), middle(1975-94) and recent(1995-2014) epochs. It is found that the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal(BOB) decreases throughout the three epochs. Over the Arabian Sea(ARB), however, there is a decrease in the early epoch, before then reaching a minimum in the middle epoch followed by an increase in the recent epoch, thus exhibiting epochal variability. Dynamic and thermodynamic parameters along with Genesis Potential Index(GPI) are examined to understand the frequency variation in cyclogenesis over the ARB and BOB. Over the ARB, thermodynamic factors such as mid-level moisture,surface latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and dynamic parameters such as lower-level convergence and upper-level divergence, are favorable during the early and recent epochs but unfavorable during the middle epoch, and these results are found to be consistent with the observed epochal variability in the frequency of cyclogenesis. However, all these influential parameters are found to have decreased over the BOB during the entire 60-year period.     

A case study of the improvement of soil moisture initialization in IAP-PSSCA

A prediction system is employed to investigate the potential use of a soil moisture initialization scheme in seasonal precipitation prediction through a case study of severe floods in 1998. The results show that driving the model with reasonable initial soil moisture distribution is helpful for precipitation prediction,and the initialization scheme is easy to use in operational prediction.     

温室效应对青藏高原及青藏铁路沿线气候影响的数值模拟

在一个全球模式中嵌套了RegCM2区域气候模式,进行了CO2加倍对中国区域气候影响的数值试验,对青藏高原及青藏铁路沿线地区进行了重点分析。结果表明,在CO2加倍的情况下,这里的气温将明显升高,升高值一般在2．6～2．8℃以上,高于全国平均值。同时降水在青藏高原大部分地区也将明显增加;其中青藏铁路沿线的增加率一般在25％以上,远高于全国平均值水平。温室效应同时会使得青藏铁路沿线的日平均最高气温升高。     

Köppen Climate Types in Observed and Simulated Climates

The Köppen climate classification was applied to the observed gridded climatological sets and the outputs of four general circulation models (GCMs) over the continents of the Earth. All data had been acquired via the Data Distribution Centre established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The ability of the GCMs to simulate the Köppen climate zones identified in the real data was explored and possible future (global warming) changes in the climate types' distribution for each GCM were assessed. Differences in the area distributions derived from the GCMs' recent climate simulations give evidence about uncertainties generally involved in climate models. As to the global warming simulations, all GCM projections of warming climate (horizon 2050) show that the zones representing tropical rain climates and dry climates become larger, and the zones identified with boreal forest and snow climates together with the polar climates are smaller.     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.