Chinese Contribution to CMIP5：An Overview of Five Chinese Models’Performances

An overview of Chinese contribution to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 （CMIP5） is presented. The performances of five Chinese Climate/Earth System Models that participated in the CMIP5 pro ject are assessed in the context of climate mean states, seasonal cycle, intraseasonal oscillation, interan-nual variability, interdecadal variability, global monsoon, Asian-Australian monsoon, 20th-century historical climate simulation, climate change pro jection, and climate sensitivity. Both the strengths and weaknesses of the models are evaluated. The models generally show reasonable performances in simulating sea surface tem-perature （SST） mean state, seasonal cycle, spatial patterns of Madden-Julian oscillation （MJO） amplitude and tropical cyclone Genesis Potential Index （GPI）, global monsoon precipitation pattern, El Ni-no-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） related SST anomalies. However, the perfor-mances of the models in simulating the time periods, amplitude, and phase locking of ENSO, PDO time periods, GPI magnitude, MJO propagation, magnitude of SST seasonal cycle, northwestern Pacific mon-soon and North American monsoon domains, as well as the skill of large-scale Asian monsoon precipitation need to be improved. The model performances in simulating the time evolution and spatial pattern of the 20th-century global warming and the future change under representative concentration pathways pro jection are compared to the multimodel ensemble of CMIP5 models. The model discrepancies in terms of climate sensitivity are also discussed.     

浅层地热能开发利用适宜性分区方法研究--以安徽省浅层地热能调查评价为例

通过对安徽省浅层地热能开发利用适宜性分区方法进行研究,提出以浅层地热能资源赋存及技术经济、环境条件为评价因子,以关键因子为必要条件,采用关键因子法、层次分析法及综合指数法进行适宜性分区的方法;该综合评价方法能客观反映评价区开发利用适宜性特征。适宜性分区是贯穿于浅层地热能调查评价工作全过程并指导合理开发利用的重要基础性工作,其分区方法及评价因子选取需要紧密结合实际、因地制宜。     

长江经济带土壤质量评价及产地适宜性初步研究

开展土壤质量评价对科学划定永久基本农田及统筹优化农业生产布局具有重要指导意义。本文采用内梅罗综合污染指数法、分级法、累积频率法和综合判定法,参照《土壤环境质量农用地土壤污染风险管控标准》(试行)(GB 15618—2018)和《绿色食品产地环境质量》(NY/T 391—2013),对长江经济带土壤重金属污染、酸碱度、有益元素丰缺和绿色农产品产地适宜性进行评价。研究区土壤质量总体良好,清洁土壤面积34.84万km²,其重金属含量继承了自然背景特征; 三级及以下土壤面积6.94万km²,呈斑块及星点状分布于赣东北、赣南、湖南长沙—郴州一带、沿江及贵阳、昆明等地,其重金属为自然富集或受矿业开发、煤炭和石油的燃烧及工业“三废”排放的影响。酸性土壤面积33.56万km²,分布于江西、湖南、宁波—台州沿海和金华衢州盆地,碱性土壤面积15.69万km²,分布于苏北平原、环洞庭湖、成都平原以及沿长江一线,其土壤酸碱度与土壤类型有关。土壤有益元素丰缺与第四系沉积物成土母质有关,土壤有益元素适量及以上区域面积34.44万km²,分布于四川阿坝、成都盆地、环洞庭湖、环鄱阳湖、安徽沿江、苏北沿海和杭嘉湖平原; 土壤有益元素缺乏区面积13.89万km²,分布于赣南、江淮、鄂东北以及云南玉溪等地。绿色农产品产地最适宜区、适宜区和不适宜区面积分别为22.49万km²、18.78万km²和18.28万km²。依据区内绿色农产品产地适宜性、土壤环境质量和立地条件划分出7片永久农田保护建议区。     

长江经济带岩盐矿特征与盐穴储库适宜性评价

长江经济带包括上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、江西、湖北、湖南、四川、重庆、云南和贵州11个省(直辖市),是我国重要的经济发展区域,油气资源长期安全可靠的储存对于该区经济可持续发展至关重要。基于长江经济带战略油气储库基地建设规划布局的需求,在充分收集利用前人地质调查和研究成果的基础上,对区内岩盐矿床进行了综合研究和分析,建立了层次结构模型,评价了盐穴油气储库建设的可行性。长江经济带除上海和贵州外,其余9省(直辖市)均发现了大量的岩盐矿床,主要成盐时代为震旦纪、三叠纪、白垩纪和古近纪; 成盐盆地范围0.29~10 000 km²,盐层累计厚度3~1 050 m,矿体埋藏深度40~3 400 m; 矿石中NaCl含量20%~99.86%; 矿体顶底板及夹层岩石主要为泥岩、粉砂质泥岩及泥质粉砂岩。地质调查揭示出区内大部分地下盐穴远离地震活动带,构造稳定,因此可以改造为石油储库。考虑储气库的密闭性及安全性,江苏金坛盆地等6个盐矿埋深适中,建穴地质条件较好,适合建造储气盐穴库; 江苏淮安等14个盆地的局部地区适合建造天然气储库; 重庆垫江等11个盐矿埋深较大,可以建造储气盐穴库,但建造成本较高; 湖南澧县等21个盐矿埋藏偏浅,应选择更深部的盐层空间建造油气储库。建议在江苏金坛、淮安、赵集和丰县,江西清江和会昌,湖北云应、天门小板和潜江等盐矿地区优先开发利用盐穴。     

Suitability evaluation of rural residential areas under the threat of geological disasters:A case study in Yinchanggou watershed of Pengzhou City

At present, the research on the layout of rural residential areas in the mountainous environment under the threat of earthquake disasters and frequent geological disasters is still rare. Taking Yinchanggou watershed in Longmenshan Town of Pengzhou City as an example, based on the summary of the geological hazard development characteristics in this area, the authors carried out the hazard risk zoning through 8 indexes. Then the geological hazard risk zoning was used as the primary factor to evaluate the suitability of rural residential areas. Besides, combined with the topographical conditions, socio-economic situation and ecological environment, a suitable evaluation index system for rural residential land under the threat of geological disasters was constructed, with the restrictive conditions of extremely high-risk areas, single geological hazards, slopes ≥25° and basic farmland protection areas. Finally, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the suitability of residential land in Yinchanggou watershed of Pengzhou City. The results show that high suitability areas account for 4.2% of the total area of the study area, moderate suitability areas 11.4%, low suitability areas 10.5%, and unsuitable areas 73.8%. The “suitable” areas for rural residential land are mainly distributed along the highway, and some are multiple “blocky” concentrated distribution areas. The terrain is flat and the traffic condition is convenient, which can provide some guidance for the selection of new rural residential locations.     

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass‐extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative δ¹³C anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high‐resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, ?W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn‐extinction and post‐extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal‐beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.     

A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios: A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it provides a better representation of climate at the local scale; (ii) it avoids the occurrence of spurious relationships between the large and local scale variables; (iii) it offers a more appropriate representation of variability in the downscaled scenarios; and (iv) it allows for compatibility assessment and combination of the information contained in both observed and simulated climate variables. Furthermore, this methodology is useful for integrating scenarios of local scale factors that affect local climate. As such, the convenience of different public policies regarding, for example, land use change or atmospheric pollution control can be evaluated in terms of their effects for amplifying or reducing climate change impacts.     

近40年来气候变化对青海盐湖及其矿产资源开发的影响——以小柴旦湖为例

青海是中国盐湖主要分布区之一,蕴藏着丰富的矿产资源。文章以RS和GIS技术为基础,从20世纪70年代、90年代、2000年前后、2008~2009年和2013~2014年五期Landsat遥感影像中提取了青海面积大于10 km2的所有盐湖(不包括干盐湖),分析了其近40年来的变化趋势:总体上,盐湖总面积除在2000年前后有所减少外,基本上呈现增加的趋势;具体而言,2000年前后,萎缩的盐湖主要分布在柴达木盆地;其他时期均呈现全面扩张的趋势。在全球气候变暖的大背景下,通过分析青海地区11个气象台站的年平均气温、年降雨量和蒸发量数据,可知青海地区气候呈现了向暖湿方向转型的趋势,且2002年之后更为明显。最后,以青海省小柴旦湖为例,分析了湖泊淡化、矿产资源贫化对盐湖资源开发的影响,具体为:1资源开发成本升高、难度加大,甚至使一些处于工业开发临界品位的盐湖失去开发价值;2盐湖淡化条件下,锂等矿产资源有效提取技术亟待研发;3政府制定矿产资源开发政策时,需要对气候及盐湖的动态变化过程综合考虑。以上说明,青海地区的暖湿气候使盐湖大幅度淡化,给盐湖矿产资源开发带来了新的挑战。     

皖赣两省地质公园造景花岗岩的岩石特征、形成时代及景观成因

皖赣两省气候宜人,旅游资源丰富。黄山、三清山、天柱山、九华山、牯牛降等地质公园更是以独特的花岗岩地貌景观闻名于世。通过对地质公园内造景花岗岩进行年代学、岩石学、地球化学等方面的研究,证明上述地质公园内的花岗岩集中形成于135~125 Ma,属于早白垩世强烈岩浆活动的产物。这些花岗岩高硅、富碱、过铝,轻重稀土分馏不明显,Eu强烈亏损,稀土配分曲线呈海鸥型;强烈亏损Ba、Sr、P、Ti,形成四个明显的凹槽,具有造山后铝质A型花岗岩的岩石地化特征,属于铝质A型花岗岩或者高分异花岗岩。上述花岗岩主要形成于造山后伸展的构造背景。该构造背景下产出的花岗岩以浅色矿物为主,暗色矿物含量稀少,抗风化蚀变能力更佳;并具有多组密集的原生节理,对花岗岩地貌景观的形成起着极其重要的控制作用。