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111.
112.
Dynamic stochastic estimation of physical variables 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A fundamental problem facing the physical sciences today is analysis of natural variations and mapping of spatiotemporal processes. Detailed maps describing the space/time distribution of groundwater contaminants, atmospheric pollutant deposition processes, rainfall intensity variables, external intermittency functions, etc. are tools whose importance in practical applications cannot be overestimated. Such maps are valuable inputs for numerous applications including, for example, solute transport, storm modeling, turbulent-nonturbulent flow characterization, weather prediction, and human exposure to hazardous substances. The approach considered here uses the spatiotemporal random field theory to study natural space/time variations and derive dynamic stochastic estimates of physical variables. The random field model is constructed in a space/time continuum that explicitly involves both spatial and temporal aspects and provides a rigorous representation of spatiotemporal variabilities and uncertainties. This has considerable advantages as regards analytical investigations of natural processes. The model is used to study natural space/time variations of springwater calcium ion data from the Dyle River catchment area, Belgium. This dataset is characterized by a spatially nonhomogeneous and temporally nonstationary variability that is quantified by random field parameters, such as orders of space/time continuity and random field increments. A rich class of covariance models is determined from the properties of the random field increments. The analysis leads to maps of continuity orders and covariances reflecting space/time calcium ion correlations and trends. Calcium ion estimates and the associated statistical errors are calculated at unmeasured locations/instants over the Dyle region using a space/time kriging algorithm. In practice, the interpretation of the results of the dynamic stochastic analysis should take into consideration the scale effects. 相似文献
113.
Several stratigraphic sequences in the Upper Carboniferous (Pennsylvanian) in Kansas (Midcontinent, USA) were analyzed quantitatively for periodic repetitions. The sequences were coded by lithologic type into strings of datasets. The strings then were analyzed by an adaptation of a one-dimensional Fourier transform analysis and examined for evidence of periodicity. The method was tested using different states in coding to determine the robustness of the method and data. The most persistent response is in multiples of 8–10 ft (2.5–3.0 m) and probably is dependent on the depositional thickness of the original lithologic units. Other cyclicities occurred in multiples of the basic frequency of 8–10 with persistent ones at 22 and 30 feet (6.5–9.0 m) and large ones at 80 and 160 feet (25–50 m). These levels of thickness relate well to the basic cyclothem and megacyclothem as measured on outcrop. We propose that this approach is a suitable one for analyzing cyclic events in the stratigraphic record. 相似文献
114.
Zhou Cuiying Wang Hongwei Wang Mei and Zhang YuxiaSeismological Bureau of Shandong Province Jinan China Center for Analysis Prediction SSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1997,(4)
In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given. 相似文献
115.
Dariusz Kucharczyk Miroslaw Luczynski Roman Kujawa Piotr Czerkies 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1997,59(3):214-224
Influence of water temperature on embryonic and larval development of bream (Abramis brama L.) was stdied. Eggs of bream were incubated at eight constant water temperatures between 13.2 and 26.8°C. The temperature
of 21.1°C gave highest hatching success, with no abnormalities in the eleutheroembryos and lowest mortality observed between
eyed egg stage and the time of hatching. Developmental rate increased with increasing temperature. Duration of embryonic development
(y; hours) decreased with increasing incubation temperature (x; °C) according to the formula: y=910.1−65.88 x+1.318 x2. Larvae were reared at eight constant temperatures ranging from 13.5 to 34.0°C. The instantaneous growth rate in wet weight
increased with increasing test temperature from 13.5 to 29.9°C, and then decreased at higher temperatures. Individual growth
of fish and biomass production rate were highest at 27.9°C. This temperature is considered optimal when food availability
and photoperiod are no limiting factors. 相似文献
116.
Federico Murrone Fabio Rossi Pierluigi Claps 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(6):483-510
A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the
hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This
latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework,
involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response
to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing
contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of
the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering
the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system
represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by
information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter
parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model
application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins. 相似文献
117.
强余震持续时间的早期估计 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本研究旨在解决地震序列中强余震持续时间的早期估计问题。文中首先给出了强余震的震级定义,指出:主震型与强震群型序列的强作震持续时间存在差异。使用模式识别方法对主震型序列中强余震持续时间大于1天,小于1天及无强余震等3种情况进行划分之后,给出了两类序列的强余震持续时间与序列和第一震震级的粗略相关关系。 相似文献
118.
引入并改进了区域-时间-长度算法(region-time-length algorithm),较之原来的定义更加强调了地震破裂尺度函数对VRTL的贡献,同时保证了震中距函数、时间函数及破裂尺度函数对VRTL影响的权系数相等.华北5级以上地震的回顾性预测研究结果表明,改进的RTL算法所得到的异常大多具有短期或中短期特征. 震前VRTL变化型态可分为两类:Ⅰ类具有相对完整的变化形态,大多呈现从0开始的上升——转折下降或下降——转折上升形态;Ⅱ类变化形态不完整,一般从0开始急剧上升或下降,无明显转折,主震发生在VRTL极值附近.VRTL上升表征地震活动水平相对于背景变化率的增高,意味着地震活动增强;VRTL下降则意味着地震活动相对于背景变化率的降低,在一定程度上表征了地震活动的平静.据此给出由RTL算法进行中、短期异常识别并粗略估计发震时间的方法. 该方法Ⅰ,Ⅱ类异常3个月内发震的R值评分分别为0.6及0.3左右, 6个月内的R评分分别为0.7及0.4左右.对特征时间跨度、特征距离、震级下限等对VRTL的影响, 以及其它一些实际应用中的重要问题进行了初步讨论. 相似文献
119.
A. Douaik M. van Meirvenne T. Tóth M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227
The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (ECa) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to ECa, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas. 相似文献
120.
We present new 40Ar/39Ar data for sanidine and biotite derived from volcanic ash layers that are intercalated in Pliocene and late Miocene astronomically dated sequences in the Mediterranean with the aim to solve existing inconsistencies in the intercalibration between the two independent absolute dating methods. 40Ar/39Ar sanidine ages are systematically younger by 0.7-2.3% than the astronomical ages for the same ash layers. The significance of the discrepancy disappears except for the upper Ptolemais ashes, which reveal the largest difference, if an improved full error propagation method is applied to calculate the absolute error in the 40Ar/39Ar ages. The total variance is dominated by that of the activity of the decay of 40K to 40Ar (∼70%) and that the amount of radiogenic 40Arp in the primary standard GA1550 biotite (∼15%). If the 40Ar/39Ar ages are calculated relative to an astronomically dated standard, the influence of these parameters is greatly reduced, resulting in a more reliable age and in a significant reduction of the error in 40Ar/39Ar dating.Astronomically calibrated ages for Taylor Creek Rhyolite (TCR) and Fish Canyon Tuff (FCT) sanidine are 28.53±0.02 and 28.21±0.04 Ma (±1 S.E.), respectively, if we start from the more reliable results of the Cretan A1 ash layer. The most likely explanation for the large discrepancy found for the younger Ptolemais ash layers (equivalent to FCT of 28.61 Ma) is an error in the tuning of this part of the sequence. 相似文献