守时工作进展

随着近5年时间传递技术(多通道GPS／GLONASS CV、TWSTFT、GPS P3 CV)和原子时算法的发展，国际原子时TAI和各国的守时工作有了较大的进展，中国科学院国家授时中心(NTSC)和国内其他时间实验室的工作也不例外。介绍国际权度局(BIPM)时间部有关2000～2003年TAI的研究进展，以及NTSC和国际、国内某些时间实验室守时工作简况。另外，自2000年以来国际上对UTC之未来的争论很激烈，因此就2003年5月28～30日在意大利都灵市举行的“UTC的未来”研讨会的情况也作一些介绍，以便国内天体测量相关学术领域的同行们对这些发展有一个基本的了解。     

基于非分裂CFS-PML边界条件的频散介质GPR时域有限元模拟

通过数值模拟研究探地雷达（GPR）高频电磁波在频散介质中的传播规律,对提高实测资料的解释精度具有重要意义.复频移完全匹配层边界条件（CFS-PML）以其优越的吸收特性被广泛用于一阶电磁波动方程的GPR时域有限差分数值模拟中,其实现过程大都涉及电磁场的卷积计算,辅助变量较多,降低计算效率.为此,本文从复拉伸坐标系下的Debye频散介质电磁波动方程出发,通过合理构造辅助微分方程,推导了二阶Debye频散介质电磁波动方程的非分裂CFS-PML边界条件实现公式,避免了电磁波场的分裂和卷积计算.在此基础上,利用Galerkin法和Newmark-β差分法推导了基于非分裂CFS-PML边界条件的GPR有限元方程及其时域差分离散格式.两个GPR模型的模拟结果表明：本文提出的基于辅助微分方程的非分裂CFS-PML边界条件实现方法可有效地吸收大角度入射的低频虚假反射波,提高模拟精度;相比于非频散介质,高频电磁波在频散介质中传播衰减更强、子波持续时间增大、分辨率和传播速度降低、直达波和反射波的主频更小,分析结果有助于提高实测GPR资料的解译精度.

     

山东地震台网监测预警能力评估分析

国家地震烈度速报与预警项目已进入试运行阶段,山东全省作为重点预警区,其预警能力直接关系山东及其周边地区的预警效能。为精确评估山东地震台网的监测预警能力,以本台网所记录到的波形数据为基础,将仪器最大概率峰值位移作为背景噪声评估指标获得山东地震台网的监测能力。在此基础上,考虑到预警时效性需求,系统评估了山东地震台网中,由125台速度计组成的测震台网、由152台加速度计组成的强震台网、由1198台烈度仪组成的烈度台网及其融合网的预警最小震级和首报时间。结果表明,山东地震台网平均监测能力达到M_L0.4,最小值可达M_L-0.2,最大值可达M_L1.1; 测震、强震和烈度台网“三网”融合后预警最小震级、首台触发后和震后的预警时间平均值分别约为M_L2.2、3s和5s,“三网”融合进行预警的策略可以满足地震预警“稳、准、快”的要求。     

利用联合反演技术进行反射地震的波速成象

本文介绍了根据反射地震数据进行波速成象的一种方法,其基础为多种反演技术的综合。由于要求的波速图象C（x,z）具有间断性,除利用走时数据T（x,t）外,在地层比较水平的情况下,还利用了均方根速度V（x,t）和统计子波W（t）的数据来成象。计算机层析成象过程分为三步:首先重做速度分析,取得与初次反射走时一致的均方根速度数据;然后用反射走时与均方根速度联合反演对应分析道的层速度和界面深度;最后由联合反演结果和反射面走时求波速图象函数的数字化版。文中还给出了波速成象方法在我国西北某沉积盆地上的应用及验证结果。     

GRACE时变重力场位系数相关误差的滤波消除技术

针对美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心(UTCSR)发布的GRACE Level-2 RL04版本时变重力场模型位系数,分析了GRACE重力场位系数中存在的系统相关误差,并确定了相关误差滤波策略。利用JASON-1卫星测高数据与WOA05海洋模型对滤波效果进行了定量评价,研究结果表明,相关误差滤波技术能够有效消除位系数中存在的相关误差,可提高利用GRACE重力场模型获取地球表面质量变化短波分量的能力。     

Delayed plastic model for time‐dependent behaviour of materials

A delayed plastic model, based on the theory of plasticity, is proposed to represent the time‐dependent behaviour of materials. It is assumed in this model that the stress can lie outside the yield surface and the conjugate stress called static stress is defined on the yield surface. The stress–strain relation is calculated based on the plastic theory embedding the static stress. Thus, the stress–strain relation of the model practically corresponds to that of the inviscid elastoplastic model under fairly low rate deformation. The delayed plastic model is coupled with the Cam‐clay model for normally consolidated clays. The performance of the model is then examined by comparing the model predictions with reported time‐dependent behaviour of clays under undrained triaxial conditions. It is shown that the model is capable of predicting the effect of strain rate during undrained shear and the undrained creep behaviour including creep rupture. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling residence‐time response to freshwater input in Apalachicola Bay,Florida, USA

Residence time of an estuary can be used to estimate the rate of removal of freshwater and pollutants from river inflow. In this study, a calibrated three‐dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to determine residence time in response to the change of freshwater input in Apalachicola Bay. The bay is about 40 km long and 7 km wide, with an average 3 m water depth. Through hydrodynamic model simulations, the spatial and temporal salinity and the total freshwater volume in the bay were calculated. Then the freshwater fraction method was used to estimate the residence time. Results indicate that the residence time in Apalachicola Bay typically ranges between 3 and 10 days for the daily freshwater input ranging from 177 m³/s to 4561 m³/s. Regression analysis of model results shows that an exponential regression equation can be used to correlate the estuarine residence time to changes of freshwater input. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal evolution of meltwater generation,storage and discharge at a non‐temperate glacier in Svalbard

In glacierized catchments, meteorological inputs driving surface melting are translated into runoff outputs mediated by the glacier hydrological system: analysis of the relationship between meteorology and diurnal and seasonal patterns of runoff should reflect the functioning of that system, with the role of meltwater storage likely to be of particular importance. Daily meltwater storage is determined for a glacier at 78 °N in the Svalbard archipelago, by comparing inputs calculated from a surface energy balance model with measured outputs (proglacial discharge). Solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and proglacial discharge are then analysed by regression and time‐series methods, in order to assess the meteorology–discharge relationship and its variation at diurnal and seasonal time‐scales. The recorded discharge time‐series can be divided into two contrasting intervals: up to early August, proglacial discharge was high and variable, mean hydrographs showed little indication of diurnal cycling, ARIMA models of discharge indicated a non‐seasonal, moving‐average generating process, and there was a net loss of meltwater from storage; from early August, proglacial discharge was low and relatively invariable, but with clearer diurnal cycles, regression models of discharge showed substantially improved correlations with air temperature and solar radiation, ARIMA models indicated a non‐seasonal, autoregressive generating process, and eventually a seasonal component, and there was a net gain in meltwater storage. The transition between the two periods is brief compared with the duration of the melt season. The runoff response to meteorology therefore lacks the strongly progressive element previously identified in mid‐latitude glacierized catchments. In particular, the glacier hydrological system only appears responsive to diurnal forcing following the depletion of the seasonal snowpack meltwater store. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A conceptually based stochastic point process model for daily stream‐flow generation

Based on the stochastic and phenomenological aspects of hydrological processes, a conceptually based stochastic point process (SPP) model for daily stream‐flow generation is proposed in this paper. In which, storms are defined by a stochastic point process with marked values. All the random variables defining the process are assumed to be mutually independent, which constitutes a compound Poisson point process. The direct surface runoff is regarded as occurring from storage in a cascade of surface linear reservoirs and is responsible for the short‐term variation of the daily stream flows. The baseflow component is considered as coming from subsurface/groundwater storage and is responsible for the long‐term persistence of the storm time‐series. This type of model is proposed as a more realistic model of daily stream flow than models based on pure stochastic processes. Studies on the instantaneous unit hydrograph and the mechanism of baseflow could thereby provide some parameters for this model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.