A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.     

Numerical study of droplet size dependent chemistry in oceanic,wintertime stratus cloud at southern mid-latitudes

Cloud droplet chemistry is modelled for the first 150 m of rise in a wintertime, mid-latitude, marine stratus cloud using observations made at and near the Cape Grim Baseline Station as a source of input parameters. The emphasis in this work was to study the variation in droplet chemistry as a function of both droplet size and nucleus composition, with a particular focus on the way in which oxidation of dissolved sulfur dioxide varied.At 150 m above the condensation level, solute concentration as a function of droplet size was found to increase by as much as 2 to 3 orders of magnitude for only a factor of 2 increase in droplet radius, primarily as a consequence of the 1/r dependence in the droplet growth equation. This type of size dependence exists at all levels in the model cloud, and has a significant influence on oxidation rate of sulfur dioxide in droplets growing on sulfate nuclei, oxidation by ozone being favoured in the smallest droplets, but oxidation by hydrogen peroxide being favoured in the larger droplets. Oxidation by ozone is favoured at all sizes in droplets formed on sea-salt nuclei as a result of the initially high alkalinity of these droplets, and in the cloud overall is calculated to be the more important oxidation pathway. Although based on a simplified chemical scheme, these results suggest that both size-dependent and nucleus-dependent chemistry of cloud droplets may need to be considered explicitly in cloud modelling work.Volume-weighted mean pH values in the range 5 to 6 were predicted from sensitivity studies in which input variables were varied over reasonable ranges, in agreement with two sets of bulk cloud-water pH data obtained by aircraft near Cape Grim.     

福建省第三产业发展的区域比较分析

运用可拓工程方法和主成分分析方法建立了福建省第三产业发展水平的综合评判物元模型。模型的输出结果表明：福建省各地区第三产业发展水平差距悬殊；综合关联度将第三产业发展水平划分成4个等级，单指标关联度则揭示了各地区第三产业发展的优、劣势。     

预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Large eddy simulation of hydrocyclone—prediction of air-core diameter and shape

Hydrocyclones are widely used in the mining and chemical industries. An attempt has been made in this study, to develop a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) model, which is capable of predicting the flow patterns inside the hydrocyclone, including accurate prediction of flow split as well as the size of the air-core. The flow velocities and air-core diameters are predicted by DRSM (differential Reynolds stress model) and LES (large eddy simulations) models were compared to experimental results. The predicted water splits and air-core diameter with LES and RSM turbulence models along with VOF (volume of fluid) model for the air phase, through the outlets for various inlet pressures were also analyzed. The LES turbulence model led to an improved turbulence field prediction and thereby to more accurate prediction of pressure and velocity fields. This improvement was distinctive for the axial profile of pressure, indicating that air-core development is principally a transport effect rather than a pressure effect.     

The effects of carbon dioxide leakage on fractures, and water quality of potable aquifers during geological sequestration of CO2

Since industrial revolution, the ＂greenhouse effect＂ is one of the most important global environmental issues. Of all the greenhouse gases, CO2 is responsible for about 64% of the enhanced ＂greenhouse effect＂, making it the target for mitigation, so reducing anthropogenic discharge of carbon dioxide attracts more and more attention. Geological sequestration of CO2 in deep saline aquifers is one of the most promising options. But because unknown fractures and faults may exist in the caprock layers which can prevent the leakage of CO2, CO2 will leak upward into upper potable aquifers, and lead to adverse impacts on the shallow potable aquifers. In order to assess the potential effect of CO2 leakage from underground storage reservoirs on fractures and water quality of potable aquifers, this study used the non-isothermal reactive geochemical transport code TOUGHREACT developed by Xu et al to establish a simplified 2-D model of CO2 underground sequestration system, which includes deep saline aquifers, caprock layers, and shallow potable aquifers, and study and analyze the changes of mineral and aqueous components. The simulation results indicated that the minerals of deep saline aquifers and fractures should be mainly composed of aluminosilicate and silicate minerals, which not only enhance the mass of CO2 sequestrated by mineral trapping, but also decrease the porosity and permeability of caprock layers and fractures to prevent and reduce CO2 leakage. The results from deep saline aquifers showed that the mass of carbon dioxide trapped by minerals and solution phases is limited, the rest remained as a supercritical phase, and so once the caprock aquifers have some unknown fractures, the free carbon dioxide phase may leak from CO2 geologic sequestration reservoirs by buoyancy.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Continuous air rate measurement in flotation cells: Some fundamental considerations

A robust and reliable sensor to measure gas (air) superficial velocity (J_g) continuously in flotation systems is introduced. It is based on the sampling of bubbles by buoyancy with the accumulating air allowed to exit through an orifice. At steady state, pressure drop is measured and related to the J_g by prior calibration. The continuous device is readily automated and extended to a multi-unit set-up. The sensor and data collections are described. The governing gas flow equation and models of the dynamic response to air flow rate set point change and fluctuations in froth depth are derived. Model predictions are confirmed against plant data. By taking a moving average, the J_g remains valid in the face of typical plant disturbances.     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).