1961-2010年中国400mm和800mm等雨量线时空变化

以中国1961-2010年逐日降水数据为基础,利用等值线加权平均位置的方式对400 mm和800 mm等雨量线的空间位置进行定量化处理。采用Kendall 秩次相关检验法、Morlet小波分析法、滑动t-检验法和Yamamoto法时间序列分析方法,对全国50年来 400 mm和800 mm等雨量线的空间位移特征进行了系统揭示:1961-2010年期间,400 mm和800 mm等雨量线加权平均位置坐标分别为（106°07'12"E,39°25'13"N）和（110°16'31"E,34°12'04"N）。趋势性结果表明,全国400 mm和800 mm等雨量线有向西和向南发生移动的趋势,其中400 mm等雨量线向西移动明显,800 mm等雨量线向南移动明显;周期性结果表明,全国400 mm等雨量线在经向和纬向上发生迁移的主周期分别为9年和 12年,800 mm等雨量线在经向和纬向变化均存在7年的主周期;突变性结果表明,400 mm等雨量线空间位置的突变年为1995-1996年（纬度）,800 mm等雨量线空间位置的突变年为1975年、2002年（经度）和1980年、1982年和1987年（纬度）。     

大型基坑工程水平位移监测与预测结果分析

以银川大世界商务广场的基坑为例,介绍了大型基坑工程水平位移监测的实施方案,给出了水平位移监测方法的精度,并对监测成果进行了分析。在此基础上,分别用多项式拟合和时间序列分析模型两种方法进行建模,对基坑水平位移进行预测,结果表明,该基坑水平位移较小,在规范规定的要求之内,说明基坑是稳定的;时间序列分析模型的预测精度要高于多项式拟合模型的精度。     

Mapping spatio-temporal flood inundation dynamics at large river basin scale using time-series flow data and MODIS imagery

Flood inundation is crucial to the survival and prosperity of flora and fauna communities in floodplain and wetland ecosystems. This study tried to map flood inundation characteristics in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, utilizing hydrological and remotely sensed data. It integrated river flow time series and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images to map inundation dynamics over the study area on both temporal and spatial dimensions. Flow data were analyzed to derive flow peaks and Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEPs) using the annual flood series method. The peaks were linked with MODIS images for inundation detection. Ten annual maximum inundation maps were generated for water years 2001–2010, which were then overlaid to derive an inundation frequency map. AEPs were also combined with the annual maximum inundation maps to derive an inundation probability map. The resultant maps revealed spatial and temporal patterns of flood inundation in the basin, which will benefit ecological and environmental studies when considering response of floodplain and wetland ecosystems to flood inundation.     

城市地铁变形监测数据处理

为确保地铁施工安全进行变形监测是非常重要的手段,而变形监测的最终目的是预测,即对观测物的未来形态进行预报和分析。时间序列的原理是找出事物随时间变化的规律,从而对数据变化趋势做出正确的分析和预报。本文通过对时间序列的研究对长春地铁繁荣路站的变形监测数据进行了分析和预报。     

基于LSTM神经网络的青藏高原月降水量预测

青藏高原的降水量预测不仅为该地区水资源合理规划利用提供依据,同时对中国及周边国家气候变化研究有着重要的意义。论文利用1990—2016年青藏高原降水量数据,采用长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM）对青藏高原月降水量进行预测,主要包括：① 使用青藏高原86个测站1990—2013年的月降水资料,预测各个测站2014—2016年的月降水量,并与传统的RNN、NAR、SSA和ARIMA预测模型相比,平均决定系数R²分别提高了0.07、0.15、0.13和0.36,均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对误差（MAE）表现更低;② 分析了降水量预测精度的空间分布特征,将各模型的R²在青藏高原地区内插值,分析R²的空间分布特征,发现所有模型降雨稀少的干旱地区和降雨多的湿润地区R²较低,在气候稳定、降水规律性明显的地区R²较高,且LSTM模型R²≥0.6的空间范围远大于传统模型;③ 分析了不同预测长度对各模型预测精度的影响,发现所有模型会随着预测长度增加而预测精度降低,但在不同的预测长度下LSTM预测的RMSE值都低于其他模型。     

BIBLIOGRAPHIE

Abstract

Time series modelling approaches are useful tools for simulating and forecasting hydrological variables and their change through time. Although linear time series models are common in hydrology, the nonlinear time series model, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, has rarely been used in hydrology and water resources engineering. The GARCH model considers the conditional variance remaining in the residuals of the linear time series models, such as an ARMA or an ARIMA model. In the present study, the advantages of a GARCH model against a linear ARIMA model are investigated using three classes of the GARCH approach, namely Power GARCH, Threshold GARCH and Exponential GARCH models. A daily streamflow time series of the Matapedia River, Quebec, Canada, is selected for this study. It is shown that the ARIMA (13,1,4) model is adequate for modelling streamflow time series of Matapedia River, but the Engle test shows the existence of heteroscedasticity in the residuals of the ARIMA model. Therefore, an ARIMA (13,1,4)-GARCH (3,1) error model is fitted to the data. The residuals of this model are examined for the existence of heteroscedasticity. The Engle test indicates that the GARCH model has considerably reduced the heteroscedasticity of the residuals. However, the Exponential GARCH model seems to completely remove the heteroscedasticity from the residuals. The multi-criteria evaluation for model performance also proves that the Exponential GARCH model is the best model among ARIMA and GARCH models. Therefore, the application of a GARCH model is strongly suggested for hydrological time series modelling as the conditional variance of the residuals of the linear models can be removed and the efficiency of the model will be improved.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Onof

Citation Modarres, R. and Ouarda, T.B.M.J., 2013. Modelling heteroscedasticty of streamflow times series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

Kepler's Equation and Newton's method

Power series solutions of Kepler's Equation associated with Lagrange, Levi-Civita and Stumpff may be obtained by Newton's method as an algorithm for formal power series.     

北秦岭火山岩岩石化学特征和成因

北秦岭存在A、B、C三类火山岩系列,对应着幔源型、壳幔混染型和壳幔混合型成因类型。火山岩系列和成因类型的系统变化,反映了多旋回壳幔物质迁移特证。     

桂东南那卜地区古生代变质岩系的构造演化序列

桂东南那卜地区古生代变质岩系 ,主要由花岗质岩石 (宁潭超单元 )和古生界组成。岩石构造变形强烈 ,构造形迹复杂 ,根据不同尺度上观察到的各种构造要素的几何学、运动学、构造应力场以及相互叠加关系等特征 ,可将其组成不同的构造组合 (群落 )。依据各构造组合之间的相互关系、同位素年龄 ,并结合相应的变质事件和岩浆活动事件等 ,建立起 2个旋回和 4个世代的构造变形序列。并初步探讨了古生代变质岩系的构造演化过程。     

辽宁省大石桥－吉洞峪一带辽河岩群变质地层的对比研究

辽宁省大石桥－吉洞峪一带出露的主要为古元古代的变质层状岩系，由云母片岩、长英质粒岩和大理类组成。区域上形成一大型北东向的复式向斜构造。复向斜南北两翼变质地层对比问题是辽吉东部辽河岩群研究的主要内容之一。作者根据五年来在大石桥－吉洞峪一带进行１∶５万区调所获得的新资料，从标志层及组合标志层、岩相学特征、主要标志层的岩石化学和稀土地球化学特征、变质作用演化等方面的研究入手，讨论了复向斜两翼变质地层对比的问题。结果表明，辽河岩群构成复向斜南北两翼的变质地层是完全可以对比的，从而进一步证实辽河岩群是一个不可分割的整体