Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.     

中国大陆地震地下流体异常特征研究

根据《中国震例》(1966~1999年)在中国大陆发生M_S≥5.0地震188次震例资料 , 将其中与流体异常相关的126个震例中的803项流体异常按异常出现、 异常转折至发震随时间变化和异常数量随震中距距离变化分布的时、 空特征进行统计、 分析。 研究结果表明, 无论是趋势性异常还是短临异常, 在不同的时间段中, 异常数量呈现出明显的阶段性分布特征; 异常数量空间分布会随震中距的变化而不同。 在统计研究中还表明, 两者在时、 空分布方面有较好的一致性。     

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Cathedral of Cologne (Germany) for assessing its frequencies of vibration and for checking whether these occur in the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damages may increase in case of an earthquake due to an increased structural response of the building. Analysis of the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building as well as the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed in the basement of the cathedral indicated several modes of vibration. Facilitated by these results an assessment of the seismic vulnerability was attempted for a 2D ground motion scenario using the finite element method.     

黑龙江盘古-碧水韧性剪切带中段构造地球化学特征

盘古-碧水韧性剪切带中段糜棱岩的叠加强度和质量平衡分析表明:剪切带在变形过程中组分发生了显著的交换。糜棱岩类总体CaO、K2O、SiO2大量带入,TiO2、MnO、FeO是带出的。随着糜棱岩化程度的提高,SiO2、K2O、MnO明显带入,CaO少量带出。以Al2O3守恒为限制条件,整个剪切带质量和体积增加了16.87%。大规模的物质带入带出发生在糜棱岩阶段。     

双剪统一强度准则改进及其在岩土工程中的应用

在分析Mohr-Coulomb强度准则和双剪统一强度准则的基础上,提出了主剪面应力对和主剪面应力对的作用这2个新概念,并以此为出发点,通过考虑十二面体单元主剪面上所有3个主剪面应力对的共同作用,在双剪强度准则的基础上提出了一个新准则,并对其作了极限线分析.应用该新强度准则研究了静水压力条件下圆形巷道围岩弹塑性分析和土压力计算问题.研究表明,该准则不仅能较好地非线性反映岩土的3个基本强度特征,还解决了双剪统一准则中存在的双重破坏角问题.     

Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.     

自由站立式立管总体运动疲劳分析

由于良好的疲劳特性,自由站立式立管(FSHR)正广泛应用于深海油气田的开发当中。首先根据设计参数建立FSHR详细的有限元模型,然后利用谱分析方法对FSHR进行总体运动疲劳分析,以确定FSHR总体设计参数是否满足运动疲劳要求。最后对工作于相同环境下的钢悬链立管(SCR)进行总体运动疲劳分析,探讨哪种立管系统的疲劳性能更为优良。计算结果表明FSHR系统中刚性主管最大运动疲劳损伤出现在刚性主管顶部,FSHR总体设计参数满足规范要求;FSHR总体运动疲劳寿命要远大于SCR,体现了FSHR系统对浮体运动与刚性主管之间具有良好的解耦作用。     

干旱区梨园不同覆盖条件下土壤环境因子综合性评价研究

在干旱沿黄灌区开展不同覆盖材料配合滴灌的灌溉保墒方式下,进一步研究了不同覆盖方式对梨园全生育期的土壤理化性状和养分含量变化影响,分析了土壤温度、水分、pH等和矿质营养元素间的相互关系,对覆盖后的土壤质量进行了综合性评价。试验处理分为无覆盖对照（T1）、园艺地布覆盖（T2）、玉米秸秆覆盖（T3）和黑地膜覆盖（T4）4个处理;试验设计为随机区组设计,每个处理小区均为167株梨树（约占地667 m²）,重复3次;各小区土样分0~20 cm、20~40 cm、40~60 cm土层取样。结果表明：（1） 园艺地布和黑地膜覆盖处理有一定的增温效应,而玉米秸秆覆盖有较好的降温和稳温效应,且增墒效应明显,土壤含水率比其他3种处理显著提高了1.0%~2.7%。（2） 相较无覆盖处理,黑地膜覆盖可提升表层土壤pH,并加速表层土壤有机质的分解,有机质含量较无覆盖处理下降33.1%;玉米秸秆覆盖可显著降低各土层的土壤pH,降低范围为1.8%~4.6%,并促进0~20 cm土层有机质的提升,土壤有机质含量增加12.2%;园艺地布覆盖下0~40 cm土层内土壤有机质含量和全盐量均有降低。（3） 黑地膜覆盖下0~20 cm和20~40 cm土层的碱解氮含量分别为73.00 mg·g^-1和64.53 mg·g^-1,均显著地高于无覆盖处理,无覆盖条件下土壤碱解氮在深层（40~60 cm土层）积累较多,显著地高于玉米秸秆和黑地膜覆盖;各处理0~20 cm和20~40 cm土层速效磷含量差异显著,大小顺序均为T4>T3>T2>T1,玉米秸秆覆盖可提升土壤速效钾和速效铁的含量。（4） 进行主成分分析表明不同覆盖方式对梨园浅层土壤环境因子的影响要明显大于深层土壤,在0~40 cm土层内各覆盖处理效果均好于无覆盖处理,其中玉米秸秆覆盖在0~20 cm和20~40 cm土层综合得分分别为1.189和0.326,覆盖效果最佳。     

1958-2016年呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗气温和降水变化特征

气候变化是影响草原区植被与环境状况的重要因素。利用呼伦贝尔草原新巴尔虎右旗1958-2016年的气温和降水数据资料,采用线性倾向估计法、累积距平分析法、M-K检验法和Morlet小波分析等方法,从不同时间序列上,对该地区近59年的气候变化趋势、极端气候以及突变现象进行分析。结果表明：年平均气温以0.354℃/10a的速率上升,上升趋势显著;四季平均气温均呈现增温趋势,其中春季增温趋势最大;1985-1986年发生了由低温到高温的突变;研究区年平均气温存在11 a的强显著周期。研究区年降水量整体以8.68 mm/10a的速率呈下降趋势,变化趋势不显著;降水集中在夏季（6-8月）,占全年降水量的72.9%,7月降水量最大,有效降水日数最多;1961-1962年和1981-1982年降水发生突变;极端降水指标中日最大降水量、连续5 d最大降水量、强降水量、极强降水量、强降水比率、连续无雨日数、零降水量日数均呈现递减趋势,仅降水强度呈递增趋势,变化趋势均不显著;Morlet小波分析表明研究区年降水量存在52 a的强显著周期。新巴尔虎右旗近59 a气候总体呈现干旱化趋势。     

New insights into geochemical behaviour in ancient marine carbonates (Upper Jurassic Ammonitico Rosso): Novel proxies for interpreting sea‐level dynamics and palaeoceanography

Elemental concentrations in Phanerozoic sea water are known to fluctuate both in time and space. With regard to carbonates precipitated from marine fluids, elemental concentrations in the carbonate crystal lattice are affected by a complex array of equilibrium and non‐equilibrium as well as post‐depositional alteration processes. To assess the potential of carbonate elemental chemostratigraphy, seven Upper Jurassic sections were investigated along a proximal to distal transect across the south‐east Iberian palaeomargin. The aim was to explore stratigraphic and spatial variations in calcium, strontium, magnesium, iron and manganese elemental abundances. The epicontinental geochemical record is influenced by the combination of continental runoff and a significant diagenetic overprint. In contrast, the epioceanic geochemical record agrees with reconstructed open marine sea water values, reflecting a moderate degree of syn‐depositional to early marine pore water diagenesis. Establishing a fair degree of preservation of matrix micrite, a thorough statistical approach was applied and elemental associations tested for their environmental significance. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analyses revealed a persistent relation between carbonate magnesium, iron and strontium abundances. Processes related to early diagenetic nodulation in Ammonitico Rosso facies most probably account for the incorporation of these elements in the calcium carbonate lattice. The clear decoupling of carbonate manganese abundance with respect to the remaining elements is documented and related to high sea floor spreading rates and hydrothermal activity during the Late Jurassic. The investigation of potential time‐fluctuation of geochemical patterns was approached through variogram computation. The observed temporal behaviour is most likely to be forced by relative sea‐level dynamics, reflecting Late Jurassic palaeoceanographic conditions and potential planetary interactions. The data obtained in this study highlight the utility of elemental data from carbonate matrix micrites as geochemical proxies for studying the influence of remote trigger factors.