The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance
of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The
sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km2 year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or
catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This
requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology
(precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from
an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km2) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features
attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability
of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km2 year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule
out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km2 year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter
may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes
allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse
structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence.
Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions
with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial
karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes. 相似文献
A detailed study was carried out on a piece of land that had been struck by lightning during the violent rainstorm that raged
over the Island of S?o Miguel (Azores Archipelago) in late October 2006. Temperature and gas measurements (CO2, CO, H2S and CH4) were performed in four study trenches, dug in an area of ∼3 m2, where an underground fire had been initiated by the impact with a lightning stroke, followed by the emission of a column
of gases and smoke. The soil under study was originally a well-pedogenized about 80 cm thick bed, made of volcanic clayey
to silty tephra fallouts and contained 5.5–9.7% of organic matter. The underground fire was monitored for one week and revealed a peak release of
404 ppm CO and 3.4% CO2 originating from a horizon located about 45 cm under the soil surface. Measurements of temperature, performed one week after
the impact, indicated a maximum value of 326°C inside the soil, while 516.5°C were measured on the surface of a lava block
interred about 20 cm under the surface. Subsequently, a stratigraphic and sedimentologic study proved the role of the grain-size
of the soil and of the organic matter content of the different horizons of the impact area, in determining the ratio between
anoxic/oxidised combustion conditions and in the progress of the process itself. It was also noticed that combustion was not
total all over in the soil bed and that the process had slightly migrated toward SW during the observation period. The combustion
process went on for about ten days, in spite of several other violent rainstorms, until it was artificially extinguished through
the excavations made to obtain study trenches. This particular circumstance evidenced the potential natural hazard represented
by this kind of atmospheric event, especially in a land where the volcanic nature of the soil may easily mislead inexperienced
observers and, consequently, delay proper action. 相似文献
This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within
the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average
size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long
wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National
Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed
lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992
and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake
and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in
2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland.
Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland
in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has
had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken
out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha
base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative
of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota. 相似文献
Temperature data from 18 measurement series obtained during logging of the Oseberg field in the northern North Sea are presented. Because the measurement series are taken at approximately the same depth, they should give identical temperatures after depth correction, and are suitable for assessing the performance of different models used to determine virgin rock temperatures from well log information.We have used this data set to test the properties of the different models given by Shen and Beck (1986). Although these models were built to simulate closely the thermal recovery of a well and are unbiased, the uncertainties in the temperature estimates when applied to real data are found to be no less than those from simpler (biased) models. This fact confirms the conclusion of Hermanrud (1989a) who showed that physical factors other than those presently accounted for significantly influence the thermal recovery of a borehole. 相似文献
Profiles observed by Sea-Wing underwater gliders are widely applied in scientific research. However, the quality control(QC) of these data has received little attention. The mismatch between the temperature probe and conductivity cell response times generates erroneous salinities, especially across a strong thermocline. A sensor drift may occur owing to biofouling and biocide leakage into the conductivity cell when a glider has operated for several months. It is therefore critical to design a mature real-time QC procedure and develop a toolbox for the QC of Sea-Wing glider data. On the basis of temperature and salinity profiles observed by several Sea-Wing gliders each installed with a Sea-Bird Glider Payload CTD sensor, a real-time QC method including a thermal lag correction, Argo-equivalent real-time QC tests, and a simple post-processing procedure is proposed. The method can also be adopted for Petrel gliders. 相似文献