Study on Formation Mechanisms of Heavy Rainfall Within the Meiyu Along the Mid-Lower Yangtze River and Theories and Methods of Their Detection and Prediction

As the project of National Key Basic Research Development Program: Research on Formation Mechanisms and Predictive Theories of Major Weather Disasters in China has been fulfilled by 5-yr efforts of Chinese scientists, achieving results of great significance are as follows: 1) development of multi-scale physical models for Meiyu frontal heavy rainfall based on a range of real-time observations; 2) construction of synoptic models for such heavy rainfall; 3) the Meiyu front found to consist of multi-scale systems that represent a subtropical front, which shears structural features of an extratropical front and ITCZ, displaying sometimes a bi-front feature in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin (MLYB). The positive feedback between pre-frontal wet physical processes and over-front strong convective activities as well as interactions among multi-scale systems of the Meiyu front act as the important mechanism for the maintenance and development of the Meiyu front; 4) proposal of theories and methods for quantitative retrieval of multiple mesoscale torrential rains from satellite remote sensings, leading to a line of products; 5) investigation of applicable theories and techniques for retrieving the heavy rainfall system's 3D structure from dual-Doppler synchronous detectings; and 6) development of a system for meso heavy rainfall numerical prediction models with a 3D variational data assimilation scheme included, a tool that played an active role in flood combating and relief activities over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) in 2003.     

3-D rheologic model of earthquake prepa-ration (III): Precursor field

Introduction Based on the elastic theory of hard inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii (1991), we developed a rheologic inclusion model to study the spatial-temporal variation of earthquake pre-cursor by using the bulk-strain field resulted from rheologic inclusion model (SONG et al, 2000). Based on the elastic inclusion theory, the analytical expressions for the viscoelastic displacement field and strain field of rheologic inclusion model are derived (SONG et al, 2003, 2004). Further-m…     

Inertial theory of the mean Hadley circulation under the condition of nonstatic equilibrium

1 Introduction The mean meridional circulation plays an important role in the transportation and balance of heat, momen- tum, vortex and vapor between different latitudes. According to the data analysis, there are three circula- tions from the equator to the polar area: the Hadley circulation, a heat-driven circulation which rises around the equator and sinks at a certain latitude; the subpolar circulation, another heat-driven circulation around the polar area; and the Ferrel circulation, an i…     

Errors due to the anisotropic-common-ray approximation of the coupling ray theory

The common-ray approximation eliminates problems with ray tracing through S-wave singularities and also considerably simplifies the numerical algorithm of the coupling ray theory for S waves, but may introduce errors in travel times due to the perturbation from the common reference ray. These travel-time errors can deteriorate the coupling-ray-theory solution at high frequencies. It is thus of principal importance for numerical applications to estimate the errors due to the common-ray approximation applied. The anisotropic-common-ray approximation of the coupling ray theory is more accurate than the isotropic-common-ray approximation. We derive the equations for estimating the travel-time errors due to the anisotropic-common-ray (and also isotropic-common-ray) approximation of the coupling ray theory. The errors of the common-ray approximations are calculated along the anisotropic common rays in smooth velocity models without interfaces. The derivation is based on the general equations for the second-order perturbations of travel time.     

A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

Gradient theory of nucleation in polar fluids

Gradient theory (GT), a form of density functional theory (DFT), was applied to water, methanol, and ethanol using the cubic perturbed hard body (CPHB) equation of state (EOS). Compared to the standard form of classical nucleation theory (CNT), the GT results for water showed an improved temperature dependence, but the supersaturation dependence was slightly poorer. GT and several forms of CNT were also found to be in good agreement with a single high T molecular dynamics rate for TIP4P water. The rates predicted by GT for methanol and ethanol were improved by several orders of magnitude compared to CNT, but no improvement in the predicted temperature dependence of the rates was found.     

土钉面层配筋量计算原理及实例分析

本文在分析国内外大量文献资料的基础上,对土钉面层的受力机制进行了详细的讨论和分析,认为土钉面层主要受到钉体对面层的集中荷载及土体对面层的分布荷载作用。引入半弹性体和布辛涅奈斯克理论推导出了较为实用的土钉面层配筋量计算公式,并通过实例验证了该公式的正确性。     

从大洋中脊反思大陆漂移说——兼论地球膨裂说

本文通过讨论地幔对流的可能性以及大洋中脊的运动方式,证明了大陆漂移说对大陆漂移的源动力的解释仍存在漏洞,并提出大陆漂移源动力与地球膨裂的关系。对大陆漂移说具有补充性。     

软、硬岩体沉陷变形规律研究

煤层顶板覆岩一般以页岩、砂岩、灰岩等沉积岩为主,其物理力学性质差异很大。研究了应用模型实验方法探索煤层采后顶板沉陷变形的变化规律,为评价采空区沉陷稳定提供了依据。     

浅谈多传感器信息融合技术

多传感器信息融合广泛应用于自动目标识别、战场监视、机器人、工业过程控制、遥感、图象处理、模式识别等领域。介绍了多传感器信息融合技术的概念、原理、功能模型,其融合方法主要介绍了Dempster-Shafer证据理论(D-S证据理论),由于D-S证据理论存在处理大量不确定的系统估计问题的特性,可以将其应用于势态估计问题。