Regional moment tensor uncertainty due to mismodeling of the crust

The retrieval of earthquake moment tensor (MT) requires the response of the medium, in which seismic waves travel from the hypocenter to the stations, to be known. In inverting long-period (LP) seismic data (teleseismic and LP regional records), a gross earth model is sufficient; with decreasing periods, a more detailed model is needed. This is the case when waveforms of weak earthquakes at regional distances are to be inverted. Regional moment tensors (RMTs) of mostly Mediterranean earthquakes are determined on a routine basis by the Swiss Seismological Survey (SED) by using averaged models of the earth's crust. By inverting broad-band records of the M_w=4.8 earthquake near Udine, N Italy, on Feb. 14, 2002, we tested the sensitivity of the MT solution with respect to possible errors in the earth model used and in the location of the hypocenter depth. We perturbed the P and S velocities and the thickness in the 1-D earth model in the range from 3% to 30% of the parameter values and constructed estimates of confidence regions of the MT and error bars of the source time function (STF) and scalar moment in three frequency bands. Similarly, these error characteristics were determined assuming a mislocation in the hypocenter depth. We found that, in the band of periods from 25 to 50 s, the mechanism is resolved well (at the confidence level 95% at least) up to an earth model uncertainty of 30%, in the passband 10–25 s up to about 10%, but it is undetermined completely at periods of 5–10 s. An error in hypocenter depth of as much as double the value reported by the location procedure does not destroy the resolution of the mechanism at periods above 10 s. In the RMT catalog of the SED, earthquakes of M_w greater than about 3.5 are processed at periods above 30 s; thus, the solutions for these events are robust with respect to a possible uncertainty in the earth model used. Mechanisms of weaker earthquakes, retrieved from short periods, should be interpreted with caution.     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

孟湾槽在百色市异常降雪天气中的作用

通过对1983年12月28日、2002年12月26日百色市两次异常降雪天气过程的对比分析,发现冬季孟加拉湾槽的发展东移在其中起到了关键性的作用。由于孟加拉湾槽前暖湿气流强盛,这种强盛的西南暖湿气流在低空冷空气堆(冷锋)上发生强烈的系统性上升运动,从而导致百色市及其邻近地区出现异常的雨雪天气。     

A macroscale analysis of coastal steepening around the coast of England and Wales

Coastal steepening potentially presents an array of management issues in the form of financial implications of sea defence degradation, increased risk posed to the hinterland as wave attenuation is reduced, 'coastal squeeze' and statutory requirements in the light of the Habitats Directive. The extent to which coastal steepening has occurred throughout England and Wales has been investigated through use of a GIS and dataset based on historical Ordnance Survey map information. Data were collected along 1084 selected profile lines, positioned so as to be geomorphologically representative of the coast. Features recorded from each map year included the positions of mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW), the relative movements of which infer changing intertidal gradients. The results presented in this paper are on a subject and scale not previously published. It is revealed that 61% of the coastline studied has experienced a tendency towards steepening. Of the remainder, 33% has flattened, and 6% has experienced no rotational movement. This tendency towards steepening has been the dominant movement on each of the west, south, and east coasts.     

The Singapore River thematic zone: sustainable tourism in an urban context

This paper explores the concept of sustainable tourism and how it applies to urban destinations such as Singapore. As tourism is an important industry in Singapore, in terms of employment, business activity and an income generator, the Singapore Tourism Board is continuously looking at potential avenues to make Singapore a competitive destination. We examine the use of thematic zones in Singapore as a strategy to achieve its ambition of becoming a tourism capital of the world. By focusing on a case study of the Singapore River thematic zone (one of the 11 thematic zones identified by the Singapore Tourism Board), we assess the viability of thematic zones in ensuring sustainable urban tourism. The paper closes with some theoretical reflections and policy implications arising from our key findings.     

博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。     

美国"阳光带"的崛起对中国西部城市化战略的启示

美国西部开发以城市化为先导，中国西部大开发本质上也是西部城市化。西部大开发战略应以城市为中心组织与落实。本文通过透视美国“阳光带”城市崛起的历史，尤其是产业集群的成功经验，提出中国西部城市化战略实施中应将培育地方产业集群作为推动城市化的重要战略方式和地方重要的公共政策工具。     

长江三角洲主要城市产业结构转换的综合评价

文章在对地区产业结构转换影响因素系统分析的基础上，采用定量分析方法，对长江三角洲15个主要城市的产业结构转换能力、产业转换速度、产业转换方向以及它们之间的关系进行探讨。研究表明：长江三角洲主要城市产业结构转换能力的区域差异明显，产业结构转换能力与区域经济发展所处阶段有很大的关系；产业结构转换能力、速度与经济发展水平呈正相关。     

GPS广播星历参数拟合算法

介绍了GPS广播星历参数的最小二乘估计方法。推导了相应的计算公式。计算结果表明。文中给出的公式是正确的，其拟合精度以用户距离误差(URE)示时，对预报轨道的损失小于1cm。