高轨空间碎片的观测模拟

对高轨空间碎片进行了观测模拟。在观测模拟中，分别选取南京和云南两个观测站；采用2种跟踪方式：跟踪恒星和跟踪卫星；对于同一地理经度上的同步卫星进行了观测；提供了发现新目标的方法；并给出了新目标的初轨。这为我国空间碎片的数据库的建立作了有益的尝试，对于卫星和航天器的飞行安全具有特别重要的意义。     

长江上游流域秋季连阴雨时空变化特征

利用长江上游259个气象站逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势分析方法,分析了近1961—2012年来长江上游流域秋季连阴雨的时空变化特征。结果表明,长江上游流域秋季连阴雨过程平均出现1.54次/a,其中9月出现次数最多,10月次之,11月出现较少。秋季连阴雨日数、累积降水量分别以2.3 d/(10 a)、13.7 mm/(10 a)的速率显著减少,连阴雨开始和结束日期平均为9月9日和9月30日均表现出推迟趋势。进入21世纪后,5—9 d、10 d以上连阴雨过程的次数、80.0 mm以上连阴雨过程的次数均表现出减少趋势。金沙江下游和四川盆地东部为秋季连阴雨累计雨量及其变化速率的大值中心,四川盆地西南部为连阴雨日数及其变化速率的大值中心。9月的降水中心、雨日分布情况与秋季总体情况基本一致,10月降水中心、阴雨日数的中心出现了明显东撤,11月东撤更为明显。     

华南前汛期降水异常及其环流特征分析

利用国家气候中心整编的中国160站的月平均降水资料和美国NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料,分析华南前汛期降水的异常及其环流特征。文中取“九五”重中之重项目执行组指出的华南地区的16站来代表华南地区,侧重分析了华南前汛期降水异常的年际、年代际变化特征及华南前汛期多、少雨年同期的环流特征。研究发现：华南地区降水的季节分布呈现双峰型,两个峰值分别在6月和8月。华南前汛期近50年的总的降水趋势变化不明显。1950年代前期和1960年代中期—1980年代中为相对多雨期,而1950年代中期—1960年代中期以及1980年代中期—1990年代初为相对少雨期,1990年代为正常波动期。华南前汛期降水存在3 a、5 a、7 a、14 a的周期。在分析华南前汛期多、少雨年大气环流场的特征时发现：华南前汛期多雨年时南亚高压和副高都偏弱,华南地区低层的水汽通量辐合加强,而且低空辐合,高空辐散,气流上升运动加强,容易形成降水;而少雨年的情况恰恰相反。     

2005年登陆我国热带气旋特征分析

热带气旋是影响我国沿海的主要灾害性天气系统之一, 它产生的狂风、暴雨、巨浪和风暴潮, 给沿岸地区人民生命和国家财产安全带来严重威胁。而严重的台风灾害, 往往是台风登陆引起的。为进一步研究登陆热带气旋的活动规律, 总结了2005年登陆我国热带气旋的特点, 结果表明:2005年登陆我国热带气旋具有登陆季节短、登陆地点分布异常、台风比例异常偏高、灾害损失极为严重的特点。同时, 还讨论了2005年登陆我国热带气旋异常的气候原因, 并指出未来几年登陆热带气旋和台风的年频数处在上升趋势中。     

郑州市区环境空气污染趋势分析

以2003年郑州市环境空气污染的主要监测指标为依据,分析了郑州市空气污染现状,并根据1994~2003年10年来的监测数据,对空气污染特征和污染趋势进行了分析,结论是:郑州市空气污染在近10年呈下降趋势。     

Historical trophic evolutions and their ecological responses from shallow lakes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River: Case studies on Longgan Lake and Taibai Lake

The evolutions of diatom floras and the total phosphorous (TP) concentrations in the historical period were reconstructed for two lakes, Longgan and Taibai in the middle Yangtze River,based on high resolutional fossil diatom study from two sediment cores and an established regional diatom-TP transfer function. The TP concentration in Longgan Lake changed slightly in the range of 36-62 μg/L and kept its middle trophic level in the past 200 years. The changes of diatom assemblages reflect a macrophyte-dominated history of the lake. During the nineteenth century, the lake TP concentration increased comparatively, corresponding to the increase in abundance of benthic diatoms. The progressive increase of epiphytic diatoms since the onset of the twentieth century indicates the development of aquatic plants, coinciding with the twice drops of water TP level. The TP concentration in Taibai Lake kept a stable status about 50 μg/L before 1953 AD, while diatoms dominated by facultative planktonic Aulacoseira granulata shifted quickly to epiphytic diatom species, indicating a rapid expansion of aquatic vegetation. During 1953-1970 AD, the coverage of aquatic plants decreased greatly inferred by the low abundance of epiphytic diatoms as well as declined planktonic types, and the reconstructed TP concentration shows an obvious rising trend firstly, suggesting the beginning of the lake eutrophication. The lake was in the eutrophic condition after 1970, coinciding with the successive increase of planktonic diatoms. The comparison of the two lakes suggests the internal adjustment and purification function of aquatic plants for nutrients in water. The discrepancy of TP trends in the two lakes after 1960 reflects two different patterns of lake environmental response to human disturbance. Sediments in Taibai Lake clearly recorded the process of lake ecological transformation from the macrophyte-dominated stage to the algae-dominated stage. The limits of TP concentration (68-118 μg/L) in the transitional state can be considered as the critical value between the two stable ecosystems. Further work will be necessary to provide more evidence from the sediments in more eutrophic lakes for the primary inference. The reconstructive TP level and the inference of aquatic plants from fossil diatoms in different lakes, as well as their comparison provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration of eutrophic lakes in research regions.     

Analysis of a large extent aeromagnetic survey near the geomagnetic equator (Minas Gerais,Brazil)

A large extent aeromagnetic survey, covering a 9°×9° degree of a Precambrian shield area in SE Brazil, was used to analyse long wavelength magnetic anomalies with the purpose of determining the magnetic structure of the lithosphere.Data analysis based on a novel approach to the estimation of the parameters in the statistical model ofSpector andGrant (1970), reveals a highly magnetized lower crust, bounded by an essentially non-magnetic upper mantle. The highly magnetized layer can be associated with a higher density lower crust model, derived from gravity and seismic data available in the area, suggesting a compositional transition from upper to lower crust.It was also verified that the operation of reduction to the pole, which is singular at the geomagnetic equator, performs quite satisfactorily at the low geomagnetic inclination of the area, bringing into accordance the long wavelength anomalies with the structural trends.     

中全新世云南寻甸地区气候演化过程及其驱动机制初步研究

通过对云南寻甸仙人洞XR1石笋进行TIMS-U系测年、氧碳同位素、有机碳含量分析,重建了寻甸地区中全新世季风气候演化模式:(1)8.0～6.0kaB.P.为温暖湿润期;(2)6.0～5.1kaB.P.为气候突变期,气候由温湿变为冷干;(3)5.1～2.1kaB.P.为凉干期。通过石笋有机碳含量与石笋δ18O记录对比,认为石笋有机碳可以反映气候变化,但是存在滞后效应。最后,利用XR1石笋δ18O记录与北半球33°N太阳辐射量,本文初步分析了云南寻甸地区中全新世气候变化的驱动因素:寻甸地区中全新世气候的整体变化趋势受33°N太阳辐射量控制,同时受中全新世火山活动的影响。      

双台子河口重金属污染的沉积记录

根据双台子河口沉积柱中微量金属的含量及沉积物的粒度参数,结合137Cs放射性比活度精确定年,研究了双台子河口的沉积速率和重金属的污染变化特征,并利用地累积指数法评价了重金属的污染程度。137Cs计年的结果表明,沉积柱的平均沉积速率为1.3cm/a。沉积物的粒径从底层向表层逐渐变细,反映了水动力条件的减弱。绝大多数重金属的含量基本上都是自底部向上逐渐增加。重金属元素与细粒沉积物(63μm)均具有较好的正相关性,说明细粒物质对重金属具有较高的吸附能力。采用地累积指数对沉积柱中重金属元素的垂向变化进行了评价,发现除Cd元素外,大部分元素均未受到污染(Igeo0)。推测Cd的污染可能主要与20世纪90年代起至今人类活动对双台子河口产生的影响逐渐增加有关。     

天然热释光技术在南海东部表层沉积物油气潜力勘查中的应用

应用热释光技术对南海东部海域(13.00°~22.00°N、117.00°~119°30′E)42个站位的表层沉积物样品进行分析测量,结合气烃组合指标C1/(C2+C3)及甲烷碳同位素判别地表气烃的成因类型,并有效指示了海底深部油气藏散失引起的放射性异常,研究还发现热释光在不同沉积粒径中的测试剂量不同,结果为黏土质粉砂大于砂质粉砂;热释光也与部分化学元素含量有关,与稀土金属Nb、金属元素Zr呈显著正相关,与微量元素S、Ba呈负相关;天然热释光还与不同区块的沉积物酸解气烃甲烷、丙烷、异丁烷呈强烈正相关。数理统计分析结果表明沉积物的热释光和气烃的异常值完全吻合。