Active faulting at the Eurasian, North American and Pacific plates junction

The active faults known and inferred in the area where the major Pacific, North American and Eurasian plates come together group into two belts. One of them comprises the faults striking roughly parallel to the Pacific ocean margin. The extreme members of the belt are the longitudinal faults of islands arcs, in its oceanic flank, and the faults along the continental margins of marginal seas, in its continental flank. The available data show that all these faults move with some strike-slip component, which is always right-lateral. We suggest that characteristic right-lateral, either partially or dominantly, kinematics of the fault movements has its source in oblique convergence of the Pacific plate with continental Eurasian and North American plates. The second belt of active faults transverses the extreme northeast Asia as a continental extension of the active mid-Arctic spreading ridge. The two active fault belts do not cross but come close to each other at the northern margin of the Sea of Okhotsk marking thus the point where the Pacific, North American and Eurasian plates meet.     

Late-Stage Ductile Deformation in Xiongdian-Suhe HP Metamorphic Unit, North-Western Dabie Shan, Central China

New structural and petrological data unveil a very complicated ductile deformation history of the Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit, north-western Dabie Shun, central China. The finegrained symplectic amphibolite-facies assemblage and coronal structure enveloping eclogite-facies garnet,omphacite and phengite etc., representing strain-free decompression and retrogressive metamorphism,are considered as the main criteria to distinguish between the early-stage deformation under HP metamorphic conditions related to the continental deep subduction and collision, and the late-stage deformation under amphibolite to greenschist-facies conditions occurred in the post-eclogite exhumation processes.Two late-stages of widely developed, sequential ductile deformations D3 and D4, are recognized on the basis of penetrative fabrics and mineral aggregates in the Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit, which shows clear, regionally, consistent overprinting relationships. D3 fabrics are best preserved in the Suhe tract of low post-D3 deformation intensity and characterized by steeply dipping layered mylonitic amphibolites associated with doubly vergent folds. They are attributed to a phase of tectonism linked to the initial exhumation of the HP rocks and involved crustal shortening with the development of upright structures and the widespread emplacement of garnet-bearing granites and felsic dikes. D4 structures are attributed to the main episode of ductile extension (D^24) with a gently dipping foliation to the north and common intrafolial, recumbent folds in the Xiongdian tract, followed by normal sense top-to-the northductile shearing (D^24) along an important tectonic boundary, the so-called Majiawa-Hexiwan fault (MHF), the westward continuation of the Balifan-Mozitan-Xiaotian fault (BMXF) of the northern Dabie Shan. It is indicated that the two stages of ductile deformation observed in the Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit, reflecting the post-eclogite compressional or extrusion wedge formation, the subhorizontal ductile extension and crustal thinning as well as the top-to-the north shearing along the high-angle ductile shear zones responsible for exhumation of the HP unit as a coherent slab, are consistent with those recognized in the Dabie-Sulu UHP and HP metamorphic belts, suggesting that they were closely associated in time and space. The Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit thus forms part of the Triassic(250-230 Ma) collision orogenic belt, and can not connect with the South Altun-North Qaidam-North Qinline UHP metamorphic belt formed durin~ the Early Paleozoic (500-400Ma).     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

长江黄河源区多年冻土变化及其生态环境效应

应用江河源区五站1980-1998年0cm、5cm、10cm、15cm、20cm、40cm浅层地温资料、钻孔深层地温资料以及勘探资料,详细分析了两大源区的冻土变化,结果表明:近20年来,受气候变暖影响,江河源区多年冻土总体上保存条件不利,区域上呈退化趋势。岛状多年冻土和季节冻土区年均地温升高约0 3～0 7℃,大片连续多年冻土区升幅较小,为0 1～0 4℃。多年冻土上限以2～10cm/a的速度加深。在黄河源多年冻土的边缘地带,垂向上形成不衔接冻土和融化夹层,多年冻土分布下界上升50～70m。冻土退化已对江河源寒区经济和生态环境产生了一系列重要影响。但是,冻土退缩及其对环境的影响还存在很大的不确定性。     

孟湾槽在百色市异常降雪天气中的作用

通过对1983年12月28日、2002年12月26日百色市两次异常降雪天气过程的对比分析,发现冬季孟加拉湾槽的发展东移在其中起到了关键性的作用。由于孟加拉湾槽前暖湿气流强盛,这种强盛的西南暖湿气流在低空冷空气堆(冷锋)上发生强烈的系统性上升运动,从而导致百色市及其邻近地区出现异常的雨雪天气。     

Local Modeling模式及其在月径流预测中的应用

Local Modeling方法是一种动力系统预测方法，将其应用于河西内陆区黑河干流出山口莺落峡水文站月平均流量的中长期预测预报，取得了较为理想的成果。预测试验的结果表明，该预测模型有较高计算精度，尤其适用于非主汛期各月的月平均流量的预测；对于主汛期6～9月的月平均流量的预测，在考虑前期来水与预见期内降水的影响后，亦可获到较为理想的预测结果。可以认为，该方法的预报精度达到了水文情报预报规范的要求，Local Modeling方法的应用，将为西北干旱地区河川径流的中长期预报提供了一个新的途径。     

中国西部干旱区生态环境演变过程

根据湖沼沉积、黄土沉积和冰积等地质记录，运用地理信息系统、遥感、生态景观学等方法．从万年、千年和百年及百年以下四个时间尺度对中国西部干旱区生态环境演变过程进行研究。结果表明，全新世以来，中国西部干旱区的气候变化经历了多次的相对暖干和相对冷湿交替变化，变化历程较为复杂。早全新世、中全新世、晚全新世气候特点因地因时而异，但总体特征以干旱化为主，280～350a来，降水量有明显的减少趋势，并表现出显著的周期性。但在近半个世纪以来，中国天山地区的气候变化特征表现为气温升高，降水量增加。总的来说，从20世纪80年代以来，新疆的气候趋于好转，植被覆盖状况改善明显，山地森林、草甸、人工绿洲的面积均呈增加趋势。研究结果还表明，在一定尺度的气候背景条件下，地表的植被覆盖对调节绿洲区域气候有着积极的作用，可增加局部地区的降水。     

宁夏中北部地区沙尘暴天气发生过程中的不稳定条件分析

从沙尘暴的形成条件入手，对宁夏中北部地区近30a来沙尘暴天气发生过程中的不稳定条件进行了较为详尽的分析。结果表明：沙尘暴发生三前，大气的不稳定性明显增强；沙尘暴天气发生时不稳定性主要发生在700hPa以下，最为突出的是850hPa以下；沙尘暴发生过程中不稳定性达到最强。     

博斯腾湖向塔里木河输水风险分析方法

为了拯救塔里木河下游生态环境，塔里木河流域管理局根据博斯腾湖从1999年到2003年处于丰水期，湖泊处于高水位的有利时机，从2000年5月到2003年6月实施5次向塔里木河下游生态应急输水，结束塔里木河下游300多km河道近30年的断流历史。现在的问题是“博斯腾湖向塔里木河生态输水能否持续?”，“保证可持续输水的风险有多大?”本文以解决此问题为实例，介绍一般水库调节计算和水库特征水位确定方法；主要探讨水库(湖泊)向下游输水可持续性风险分析问题，提出的方法称为“水库输水可持续性风险计算时历试算法”，简称为“试算法”(T＆E方法)；并将此方法应用于实例中，计算博斯腾湖向塔里木河下游输水的可持续风险。