利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

大型射电望远镜主反射面调整方法研究

随着毫米波天文学和空间通信的重要性日益提高, 对天线性能提出了越来越高的要求, 而天线性能往往受到其反射器表面精度的限制. 微波全息技术是一种快速有效的检测反射面天线表面轮廓的测量技术. 通过微波全息测量得到天线口径场, 计算天马65m射电望远镜反射面与理想抛物面的偏差. 天马65m射电望远镜的主反射面板是放射状的, 有14圈. 面板的每个角都固定在面板下方促动器的螺栓上进行上下移动, 且相邻面板交点处的拐角共用一个促动器. 采用平面拟合的方法可以计算各块面板拐角处的调整值, 但是同一个促动器会得到4个不同的调整量. 通过平面拟合, 同时以天线照明函数为权重的平差计算方法得到相邻面板拐角的一个平差值, 即天马65m射电望远镜1104个促动器的最佳调整值. 通过多次调整和新算法的应用, 天马65m射电望远镜反射面的面形精度逐渐提高到了0.24mm.     

高层大气密度的午夜极大值特征分析与建模

利用CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload)、GRACE-A (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-A)、SWARM-C (The Earth''s Magnetic Field and Environment Explorers-C)等3颗极轨卫星的资料, 研究360—480km高层大气密度在低纬度区域的午夜极大值(Midnight Density Maximum, MDM)现象. MDM一般出现在23:00- 02:00 LT (Local Time)之间,峰值位置在低纬度15°以内,谷值位置在中纬度35°-45°附近,整体略偏向南半球,振幅约为平均密度的26%.随着高度增大以及太阳辐射水平的增强,MDM振幅呈减小趋势;冬至和夏至日附近的季节效应会减弱MDM振幅,在春秋分日的振幅最大.用3个主流大气模型DTM2000 (Drag Temperature Model 2000), NRLMSISE00 (US Naval Research Laboratory, Mass Spectrom-eter and Incoherent Scatter radar)和JB2008 (Jacchia- Bowman 2008 model)对MDM进行模拟,JB2008没有刻画出MDM现象;另两个模型低估了MDM效应,在360km和480km两个高度DTM2000模型的振幅仅为观测的46%和53%, NRLMSISE00模型仅为观测的33%和26%;模型没有准确刻画出MDM与高度、辐射水平和季节的关系.联合3颗卫星的资料,研究了-种基于地理纬度的6阶勒让德多项式,同时融合地方时和高度因素的经验函数,在振幅和相位上可以较好地刻画MDM特征,相关系数达到0.923,可为大气密度模型的修正提供借鉴,服务于低轨道航天器高精度轨道预报.     

非饱和砂土抗拉强度的试验研究

含水合物土的抗拉强度特性对含水合物地层的稳定评估具有重要意义。以黏质粉土为赋存介质,利用四氢呋喃(THF)合成含水合物土试样,在冷冻库中利用改进后的单轴拉伸装置研究了含水合物土单轴抗拉强度特性。试验结果表明水合物饱和度、试样干密度、细粒含量对含水合物土的抗拉强度存在明显影响。随着水合物饱和度的增加,抗拉强度呈现指数函数的增长趋势。干密度和细粒含量对抗拉强度的影响在不同的水合物饱和度情况下影响不同,在低水合物饱和度情况下,干密度和细粒含量的增加会使抗拉强度增强;而在较高的水合物饱和度情况下,抗拉强度则随着干密度和细粒含量增加而降低。此外,通过分析含水合物土的波速特性,建立抗拉强度与波速之间的经验关系式。这一关系式对采用声波来估算含水合物土试样的抗拉特性具有重要的参考意义。     

Assessment of three temperature reconstruction methods in the virtual reality of a climate simulation

The performance of statistical climate reconstruction methods in the pre-instrumental period is uncertain, as they are calibrated in a short instrumental period but applied to much longer reconstructions time spans. Here, the virtual reality created by a climate simulation of the past millennium with the model ECHO-G is used as a test bed of three methods to reconstruct the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature. The methods are Composite plus Scaling, the inverse regression method of Mann et al. (Nature 392:779–787, 1998) and a direct principal-components regression method. The testing methodology is based on the construction of pseudo-proxies derived from the climate model output, the application of each of these methods to pseudo-proxy timeseries, and the comparison of their result with the simulated mean temperature. Different structures of the noise have been used to construct pseudo-proxies, ranging from the simulated grid-point precipitation. Also, one sparse and one denser pseudo-proxy network, co-located with two real networks, have been considered. All three methods underestimate the simulated variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature, but the Composite plus Scaling method clearly displays a better performance and is robust against the different noise models and network size. The most relevant factor determining the skill of the reconstruction appears to be the network size, whereas the different noise models tend to yield similar results.     

论氢化物的形成及其在分析测试领域的应用

论述了氢化物形成的普遍性、氢化物的物理化学性质、元素周期系各类元素的氢化物类型。认为一些金属离子、非金属离子在酸性介质中与硼氢化钾（钠）作用及金属锌等强还原剂作用生成氢化物。综述了氢化物的形成在分析测试领域的应用：试样分解、分离富集、容量分析、光度分析、原子光谱分析、质谱分析。     

Biogeographic characterization of Mediterranean and Black Seas faunal provinces using GIS procedures

To identify Mediterranean and Black Seas areas where similar marine faunal provinces occur, geographical distribution maps of 536 species of actual or potential interest to fisheries have been digitized, using GIS software, and three different ecological areas have been delimited by depth, separated by the 200 and 1000 m isobaths. Information on the species ranges was taken mainly from the maps and the texts of the FAO Species Identification Sheets covering the region, and complemented by other sources when necessary. All the distribution maps have then been overlaid by a grid of points at regular intervals every half degree of latitude and longitude. This allowed creation of a matrix of presence or absence of the species at each point from which species richness maps have been generated. The species richness in the Mediterranean proper shows the same negative gradient eastwards that has been observed for nutrients, while the low number of species in the Black Sea could be linked to the fragility and recent fast degradation of this ecosystem. Through the calculation of 65 dissimilarity indices from 50 contiguous points along the coastline and the species richness maps, the region has been divided into nine faunal provinces. These faunal provinces have then been compared with the ten Mediterranean and Black Seas divisions used by the GFCM for statistical purposes, revealing few differences between the two classifications. The definition of faunal provinces in a region when deciding upon Natural Management Areas, and the appropriate GIS approach to be followed, are discussed.     

A Novel Approach of Using Selected Unconventional Geodesic Methods of Estimation on VTS Areas

Abstract

The Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) systems belong to the fundamental tools used in ensuring a high level of safety across sea basins with heavy traffic, where the presence of navigational hazards poses a great risk of collision or a ship running aground. In order to determine the mutual location of ships, VTS systems obtain information from different facilities, such as coastal radar stations, AIS, and vision systems. Fixing a ship’s position is always accompanied by a degree of error, but the degree of error depends on the specific position fixing system used. In order to increase the accuracy of position fixing in VTS systems, the authors propose the use of contemporary geodetic methods. The article presents the theoretical fundamentals of two unconventional geodesic methods of estimation: M estimation and M_split(q)estimation and the authors’ own proposal of their application in VTS systems. The article concludes with a test verifying theoretical assumptions, performed with the use of a computer application allowing position fixing with the use of selected robust adjustment methods. Furthermore, an example is presented of M_split(q)estimation as used for the acquisition of low-signal radar echoes, which in VTS systems are not automatically identified for tracking. The level of the echo signal makes it difficult for a VTS controller to separate these objects from typical radar noise and interference.     

鱼类摄食生态研究的理论及方法

综合分析了鱼类摄食生态研究的理论，方法及其应用中的诸多问题：胃含物分析法，营养生境及食物重叠，食物链与食物网，营养结构与营养级，摄食器官的形态特征与摄食行为的关系，食物选择以及生理生太因子对鱼类摄食的影响；提出了食物排序的概念、优势度指数Ｄ及其判定公式，并以此比较客观地建立了摄食生态相似的鱼类群落主次食物的划分标准。