Agricultural policy reforms and sustainable land management: a New Zealand case study

This paper examines the link between poverty and land management within the context of New Zealand's almost total removal of subsidies to agriculture since 1984. The impact of these policy changes is explored through the findings from a detailed study of sixteen farms in the North Island hill country. Stress is identified as a primary link between social damage and environmental degradation. This link reinforces the impact of other linkages expressed in reduced production, lower stocking rates, and reduced capital inputs. Deregulation is claimed to be good. This paper shows that in certain circumstances this is not so.     

我国月平均气温场遥相关结构的观测研究

研究了我国月平均气温场的遥相关结构。指出，我国冬季月份的气温场的跷跷板特征不明显。夏季月季有明显的遥相关结构。给出了各月的遥相关模态及强度。指出，月平均气温遥相关表现为从南向东北，西北方向的辐射状。在１０５°Ｅ以东呈东北－西南向。在１０５°Ｅ以西呈西北－东南向。这种遥相关结构是由环流异常造成的。而且可以在区域的月平均气温场预报中使用。     

利用一维时间序列重建动力系统的初步研究

通过对月平均气温一维时间序列作相空间拓展,和假定相空间状态变量随时间的演化方程含有线性和非线性二次项,再根据拓展后的资料进行拟合,利用最小二乘法求出各项系数,保留其方差贡献大的项,以重建动力系统.实际计算结果表明,重建的低阶动力系统有可能对月平均气温所表征的短期气候演化过程的非线性特性作出描写.     

海温气候振动和北半球对流层高度场变化

近40年赤道太平洋和北太平洋月平均海温距平场分布存在着短期气候振动,分析表明,它对大气环流有一定的影响。在海温气候振动的前期位相时期,对流层平均高度有降低趋势,相反在海温气候振动的后期位相时期,对流层平均高度为增高趋势。这种相关关系高层比低层要好,低纬度较中高纬度稳定,夏季较冬季明显。     

1992年夏季苏州持续高温及其中期预报

分析１９５１年以来苏州夏季高温以及持续高温与厄尔尼诺、亚洲经向环流指数、副高强度指数的关系，１９９２年夏季根据ＧＭＳ卫星云图所反应的厄尔尼诺状况和其他因素，对日本９６－１９２小时的数值预报进行修正，准确及时地作出了持续高温的中期预报。     

漳州热田地下热水的循环深度

漳州热田是我国东南沿海地区目前所见温度(121.5℃)最高的一个。热田地热地质、地球化学以及地温场的研究结果表明,漳州热田属于深循环对流型热田。为了计算热田的热水循环深度,本文采用管道模型的方法,利用热田中心钻孔的测温资料计算地下热水上涌的流速,利用热田内水化学资料计算热储温度,然后用图解法求出漳州热田热水的循环深度为3.4—4.0 km,为漳州热田的成因分析和热水资源的评价提供了依据。     

Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons

Monthly mean anomaly fields of various parameters like sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind stress, effective radiation at the surface, heat gain over the ocean and the total heat loss between a good and bad monsoon composite and the evaporation rates over the Arabian Sea and southern hemisphere have been studied over the tropical Indian Ocean. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale over the Arabian Sea during a good and bad monsoon composites were equal (about 2·48 × 10¹⁰ tons/day). The evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were greater during all the months. The mean evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere on a seasonal scale for the good and bad monsoon composites were 4·4 × 10¹⁰ and 4·6 × 10¹⁰ tons/day respectively. The maximum evaporation rates over the southern hemisphere were observed in August. The anomalies of wind stress, effective radiation at the surface and the heat gain over the ocean also exhibit large variations in August, as compared to other monsoon months.     

The warm pool in the Indian Ocean

The structure of the warm pool (region with temperature greater than 28°C) in the equatorial Indian Ocean is examined and compared with its counterpart in the Pacific Ocean using the climatology of Levitus. Though the Pacific warm pool is larger and warmer, a peculiarity of the pool in the Indian Ocean is its seasonal variation. The surface area of the pool changes from 24 × 10⁶ km² in April to 8 × 10⁶ km² in September due to interaction with the southwest monsoon. The annual cycles of sea surface temperature at locations covered by the pool during at least a part of the year show the following modes: (i) a cycle with no significant variation (observed in the western equatorial Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean), (ii) a single maximum/minimum (northern and southern part of the Pacific warm pool and the south Indian Ocean), (iii) two maxima/minima (Arabian Sea, western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal), and (iv) a rapid rise, a steady phase and a rapid fall (northern Bay of Bengal).     

一个晚元古代水下冰足刻蚀作用的记录——水下冰推垄

在现代高纬陆棚冰海区的海底底床上,有大量由海冰形成的水下冰足机械刻蚀迹,但在古代冰期地层中却极少报道。笔者在湖南省石门县中岭乡杨家坪的震旦系剖面上发现一丘状构造,经分析,推断为一水下冰足刻蚀记录(图1)。该构造出露于南华大冰期的下冰期地层东山峰组底界以下约60m,在渫水河组上部。     

我国土壤热流场及与深层大地热流场的比较

本文提出岩石圈内的某些过程是气候变迁的重要原因之一。并依据对土壤热流、大地热流、地震和旱涝关系研究所得到的一些现象和结论,利用气象站地温资料计算了土壤热流,初步分析得到如下主要结论:(1)据线性热传导理论设计的热流的计算方法基本上可以满足多年平均土壤热流场计算精度的要求;(2)平均土壤热流场、深层大地热流场、地震带三者之间有很好的对应关系。平均土壤热流高值带一般都有大地热流高值带和地震带与之对应;(3)土壤热流距平场与汛期降水场有相似的分布形势,土壤热流距平的变化与强震也有一定的联系。