济阳坳陷惠民凹陷临盘地区始新统孔店组一段—沙河街组四段红层划分和对比

受气候控制的洪水事件沉积因其短暂性、广布性和周期性等特征,具有相对的等时效应,可以作为地层划分和对比的标志层。通过分析不同规模周期下的事件沉积和正常沉积特征,并结合基准面旋回理论,识别出济阳坳陷惠民凹陷临盘地区始新统孔店组一段—沙河街组四段下亚段红层短期、中期和长期三个级次的基准面旋回特征,短期旋回以洪水期和间洪水期内发育的不同类型沉积微相组合为特征,中期旋回以发育一套完整的洪水期—间洪水期沉积为标志,长期旋回则以多个中期旋回组成的地层叠加为特征;以此为依据将惠民凹陷临盘地区孔店组一段—沙河街组四段下亚段划分为5个长期旋回、16个中期旋回及若干个短期旋回层序,并对第一个长期旋回进行了精细层序地层对比,在此基础上建立了干旱气候控制下的红层层序的划分和对比模式。     

Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

The Upstream “Strong Signals” of the Water Vapor Transport over the Tibetan Plateau during a Heavy Rainfall Event in the Yangtze River Basin

A heavy rainfall event that occurred over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) during July11–13 2000 is explored in this study. The potential/stream function is used to analyze the upstream "strong signals" of the water vapor transport in the Tibetan Plateau(TP). The studied time period covers from 2000 LST 5 July to 2000 LST 15 July(temporal resolution: 6 hours). By analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the water vapor flux, vorticity and divergence prior to and during the heavy rainfall event, the upstream "strong signals" related to this heavy rainfall event are revealed. A strong correlation exists between the heavy rainfall event in the YRB and the convective clouds over the TP. The "convergence zone" of the water vapor transport is also identified, based on correlation analysis of the water vapor flux two days and one day prior to, and on the day of, the heavy rainfall. And this "convergence zone" coincides with the migration of the maximum rainfall over the YRB. This specific coupled structure actually plays a key role in generating heavy rainfall over the YRB. The eastward movement of the coupled system with a divergence/convergence center of the potential function at the upper/lower level resembles the spatiotemporal evolution of the heavy rainfall event over the YRB. These upstream "strong signals" are clearly traced in this study through analyzing the three-dimensional structure of the potential/stream function of upstream water vapor transport.     

一种洪涝灾害事件信息建模方法

我国洪涝灾害频发且危害巨大,为有效防灾、减灾和救灾,需建立洪涝灾害事件信息模型,表示和共享洪涝灾害信息。然而,目前事件信息模型主要是表示静态信息,缺乏对洪涝灾害事件动态过程的表示。本文从观测角度出发,建立顾及洪涝灾害事件阶段和动态过程的洪涝灾害事件信息模型。围绕洪涝灾害事件信息模型,提出了10类需建模的元素,并以MOF（Meta Object Facility）建模框架构建了十元组模型,通过映射方法实现模型编码方案与事件模式语言的映射。最后,以2010年梁子湖洪涝灾害模拟为例,开展了模型分阶段建立过程实验。结果表明,本文提出的模型能表示洪涝灾害事件的动态信息和实现洪涝灾害事件的动态建模。     

山东半岛风电爬坡事件的识别与天气分析研究

根据山东省24个风电场2013年全年每15 min的风电输出功率实测数据以及相应的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)气象预测数据和FNL(Final Operational Global Analysis)再分析资料,分析了区域大规模风电爬坡现象与大尺度天气系统演变的联系。结果显示,大尺度天气系统,特别是阻塞高压系统,是诱发山东地区大规模风电爬坡的重要因素;爬坡事件的预测应当考虑天气演变的因素。进一步结合旋转门(The Swinging Door,TSD)算法重新讨论了爬坡事件的定义与识别,并在此基础上分析了爬坡事件的特征及其可预报性;并指出风电功率上报、考核制度应当重点考虑爬坡时间段的预测水平,以提高电网运行的稳定性。     

广西异常暴雨天气事件之异常指数初探

对广西异常暴雨天气事件之“异常指数”的设置进行了初步探讨，提出暴雨天气事件中过程日最大暴雨范围，过程持续时间，过程强降雨，特强降雨发生范围等四项异常分指数，然后统计同一过程分指数之和，得总指数，在此基础上分别选出了4－10月各月广西异常暴雨天气事件。     

青藏高原东缘湖相沉积和黄土高原黄土沉积磁化率与粒度相关性对比*

为探讨构造稳定地区(如黄土高原)和构造活跃地区(如青藏高原东缘)粉尘沉积物中磁化率(SUS)与粒度的相关性及其对环境事件的指示意义,本次研究分析了黄土高原蓝田剖面黄土—古土壤样品和青藏高原东缘湖相沉积样品的粒度和磁化率记录。黄土高原黄土—古土壤沉积SUS与2~10 μm粒度组分最强正相关,青藏高原东缘湖相沉积的SUS与2~10 μm粒度组分最强负相关,反映2~10 μm粒度组分为黄土高原和青藏高原乃至亚洲干旱—半干旱地区连续稳定敏感的背景沉积组分。黄土高原黄土—古土壤沉积的SUS与32~63 μm粒度组分最强负相关,青藏高原东缘湖相沉积的SUS与32~63 μm粒度组分最强正相关,反映32~63 μm粒度组分不仅是黄土高原尘暴事件沉积的敏感指标,也是青藏高原东缘湖相沉积记录的地震事件敏感指标。SUS与粒度组分的相关性在青藏高原东缘地区地震事件层开始部分高于结束部分,也较好地反映地震事件为研究区添加新鲜沉积物后随地形地貌恢复逐步减少的过程。SUS与粒度组分相关性也受当地物源的影响。     

桂东早古生代地层碎屑锆石U-Pb同位素年代学及其对华夏陆块加里东期构造事件性质的约束

对广西东部大瑶山-大明山地区分别位于早古生代不整合面之下和之上的寒武纪和泥盆纪地层进行了系统的碎屑锆石U-Pb同位素年代学研究.除少数为早太古宙锆石外, 寒武纪地层碎屑锆石的年龄主要有2.7~2.6、~1.8、1.4~1.1和~1.0Ga四组峰值及分别为250Ma和105Ma的热液改造年龄记录; 泥盆纪地层碎屑锆石除少数具有古太古代年龄外, 其余主要形成于~1.7和~1.0Ga, 并记录了强烈的~100Ma的热改造事件.这些特征表明, 研究区具有华夏陆块的属性, 扬子与华夏陆块的边界应位于该区西北以远; 经加里东构造事件后, 研究区沉积盆地的物源区发生了改变, 因而加里东期岩浆作用在本区并没有显示.结合前人研究成果分析, 加里东事件可能指示了已裂开古陆块与华夏陆块间发生的斜向碰撞, 而大瑶山-大明山地区为沿垂直于该碰撞方向挤压形成的被动盆地.区域地层中部分碎屑锆石U-Pb同位素组成的重置和热液锆石的形成, 反映了研究区在印支期和燕山期存在大规模流体参与的热改造事件, 这些热液对流作用应是导致本地区乃至整个华南褶皱带陆缘Au-Cu多金属矿带形成的重要原因之一.      

Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

1963、1976年两次不同ELNino事件的差异以及我国旱涝和台风的对比分析

本文通过对1963、1976年两次ELNino事件的分析指出:两次ELNino事件在很多方面较为一致,其主要差别是ELNino开始的地理位置(主要是经度位置)和海温分布不同。同时,又分析了两类不同型式的ELNino年对我国干旱、雨涝和登陆台风的影响。