Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

微陆块属性厘定的依据——以中亚造山带南缘中段为例

造山带中残存有许多前寒武纪地质体,其中一些被当作前寒武纪基底用于探讨所在微陆块的大地构造属性。由于微陆块属性对于造山带结构和演化具有重要意义,以及所讨论的前寒武纪地质体蕴含地球早期历史演化信息,对微陆块属性的厘定成为造山带研究的重点和难点问题之一。笔者等以中亚造山带南缘中段的微陆块为例,总结梳理了微陆块厘定的相关依据：岩石组合和变质变形特征,碎屑锆石谱峰显示的源区时代特征,地质事件序列,前寒武纪地壳演化信息,继承锆石、捕获锆石和古生代侵入体同位素显示的深源地壳信息,以及地球物理等方面的特征。由于不同学者采用的厘定依据不同,对微陆块属性认识争论不断,即使相同依据也有一定的差异,从而影响对造山带结构和演化的认识。基于以上原因,笔者等认为前寒武纪基底的亲缘性探讨不仅要注重岩石组合和形成时代,还要在精细野外解剖和高精度年代学工作基础上,注意其变质—变形特征、接触关系、源区时代特征、岩石成因和构造环境、地壳增生信息和深源地壳信息等的综合对比分析,以得到较全面依据,探讨其构造属性。当获得一组前寒武纪地质体信息时,可先进行同构造单元内对比,再与其他构造单元对比。当特征相异时则需进行构造单元拆分或考虑构造就位的可能（包括但不限于推覆体、走滑外来体、俯冲刮削的构造岩片）;当特征相似时,可能指示了相同微陆块的裂解或破坏或者不同的微陆块共同经历了相似的前寒武纪演化历程。     

Effect of the Initial Vortex Structure on Intensity Change During Eyewall Replacement Cycle of Tropical Cyclones: A Numerical Study

This study investigates the effect of the initial tropical cyclone (TC) vortex structure on the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of TCs based on two idealized simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results show that an initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds experienced a much more drastic intensity change during the ERC than an initially larger TC with stronger outer winds. It is found that an initially larger TC vortex with stronger outer winds favored the development of more active spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall, which slowed down the contraction and intensification of the outer eyewall and thus prolonged the duration of the concentric eyewall and slow intensity evolution. In contrast, the initially smaller TC with weaker outer winds corresponded to higher inertial stability in the inner core and weaker inertial stability but stronger filamentation outside the outer eyewall. These led to stronger boundary layer inflow, stronger updraft and convection in the outer eyewall, and suppressed convective activity outside the outer eyewall. These resulted in the rapid weakening during the formation of the outer eyewall, followed by a rapid re-intensification of the TC during the ERC. Our study demonstrates that accurate in- itialization of the TC structure in numerical models is crucial for predicting changes in TC intensity during the ERC. Additionally, monitoring the activity of spiral rainbands outside the outer eyewall can help to improve short-term intensity forecasts for TCs experiencing ERCs.     

1948～2004年全球越赤道气流气候变化

利用1948年1月～2004年12月逐月NCEP/NCAR的全球1000 hPa、850 hPa、700 hPa、600 hPa、500 hPa、400 hPa、300 hPa、200 hPa、150 hPa、100 hPa的10层经向格点风,计算了全球越赤道气流和年变化,分析了全球850 hPa越赤道气流通道的时、空变化特征。指出在研究的时间段内,全球850 hPa越赤道气流有明显的长期趋势变化和年代际变化。近57年,6～8月的45～50°E、5～9月的105～115°E、5～9月和5～11月的130～140°E、2～4月的20～25°E的越赤道气流有明显的加强,6～8月的50～35°W的越赤道气流减弱。夏季索马里的越赤道气流,平均每10年增强0.25 m/s,而130～140°E,5～9月的越赤道气流,平均每10年增强0.32 m/s。奇异谱分析表明,850 hPa越赤道气流的年代际变化和趋势变化的方差贡献达到35%～45%。年际变化的方差贡献不超过30%,还指出夏季太平洋的越赤道气流的强度变化与南方涛动有明显关系,弱南方涛动时,有强的越赤道气流。而索马里急流强度与北大西洋涛动有弱的正相关。     

合肥盆地形成机制与油气勘探前景

合肥盆地是与大别造山带同因同期形成的山前前陆盆地,在发育过程中盆地东部受郊庐断裂影响较大。盆地基底为华北板块的南缘,岩性主要由古生界组成,沉积盖层发育较全,厚达12000m。是一个中、新生代陆相沉积盆地。该盆地共划分4个一级构造单元,形成“三坳围一隆”的构造格局。主要大断裂4条,南倾、东西走向,横贯全盆,其性质为先逆后正的转换断层。该盆地形成∈-O、C-P、J1-2、K1-2、E五套烃源岩,中央隆起是油气的主要指向,是一个勘探潜力较大的含油气盆地。     

北半球冰川物质平衡的突变

据世界冰川监测处（ＷＧＭＳ）收集,编辑和出版的全球冰川物质平衡序列资料,用序列平均滑动ｔ检验,探测了北半球２０ａ以上长序列３３条冰川的１０ａ尺度突变。结果表明,突变发生年代的区域特征与气候环流背景突变很相近。证实冰川年物质平衡序列反映气候背景突出的能力与灵敏性。     

Tectonic Setting of the Permo-Triassic Chiang Khong Volcanic Rocks, Northern Thailand Based on Petrochemical Characteristics

The inferred Permo-Triassic Chiang Khong volcanic belt is composed of felsic to mafic volcanic rocks and their pyroclastic equivalents. Almost all the least-altered mafic volcanic rocks are lava flows; a few might have occurred as dykes. These mafic volcanic rocks are non-foliated to weakly foliated, and mostly have porphyritic textures. The phenocrysts/microphenocrysts in porphyritic samples are commonly plagioclase, and may include clinopyroxene, olivine, Fe-Ti oxide, apatite and amphibole. The matrix of lava flows ranges texturally from felty to trachytic but a few samples show felty to ophitic/subophitic, and glassy textures, whereas that of possible dyke samples is holocrystalline. The primary matrix constituents are largely plagioclase and variable proportions of clinopyroxene, Fe-Ti oxide, amphibole, olivine, apatite, quartz, alkali feldspar and/or glass. All the studied samples have been subjected to greenschist-facies regional metamorphism. Chemically, the samples show narrow ranges of least-mobile incompatible-element ratios and range compositionally from dacite to basalt of tholeiitic series. These samples are chemically analogous to those of the Tertiary andesite from Sardinian Rift, Sardinia, Italy, particularly in terms of least-mobile incompatible-element ratios. Accordingly, the studied mafic volcanic rocks are interpreted to have formed in a continental volcanic arc. However, the problem related to the geometry of plate convergence, giving rise to the continental volcanic arc, still exists.     

中国西部新生代火山活动及其大地构造背景——青藏及邻区火山岩的形成机制

在青藏高原及邻区考察了新生代火山岩 ,并对西藏的 5个火山岩省进行了岩石学和同位素地球化学的综合研究 ,探讨了火山岩的源区特征。西昆仑省喷发了钠质熔岩 ,而其它省均为钾质熔岩类 ;甘肃礼县新生代盆地主要以超镁铁质熔岩为主 ;云南的金沙江北段、腾冲以及滇东南的火山岩类在岩石组合、喷发时代和意义上独具特色。文中以陆内俯冲、岩石圈深部的大地构造演化 ,特别是“壳幔过渡带”的部分熔融 ,对它们的成因及科学意义进行了综合讨论。