华北飑线系统中地闪活动与雷达回波顶高的关系及预警指标

选取代表华北地区经常出现的三类飑线系统--拖曳层状型(TS)、先导层状型(LS)、平行层状型(PS)的3次强雷暴过程为研究对象,利用天津塘沽多普勒雷达资料、京津冀ADTD型地闪监测网资料和北京探空资料,在对资料进行全面质量控制的基础上,运用粗网格化分析方法,分别以飑线系统整体和飑线系统上局部的强回波块为研究对象,探讨6分钟内地闪频数与雷达回波顶高的关系,找寻雷电预警指标.结果表明:3次过程中,出现在云顶达到8～12km 对流云塔中的地闪频数分别为85.8%、78.9%和80.5%;无论是在飑线系统整体,还是飑线系统上强回波块中,6分钟内地闪频数与对流云回波顶高高于11km或12km的回波面积有正相关关系;而且在飑线系统内的地闪活跃区,回波顶高高于11km的回波面积对地闪活动激烈程度具有预警意义.     

南京地区闪电定位资料与探空资料的应用分析

利用江苏省闪电定位系统的观测资料,结合南京探空资料,分析了以南京探空站为中心的1°×1°的经纬度范围内,在两次探空放球时间段内所发生的闪电情况.分析表明,沙氏指数、700 hPa与1000 hPa假相当位温θse差、500 hPa与700 hPa假相当位温θse差、1000 hPa温度、500 hPa温度对南京地区闪电活动的实时预警有比较明显的作用,并定义了闪电概率指数,可用于预报0～30 min内闪电的发生概率.本研究对南京地区雷电实时监测与预警有参考价值.     

Intermediate‐term variations in solar radius during solar cycle 23

In this study, we look for the mid‐term variations in the daily average data of solar radius measurements made at the Solar Astrolabe Station of TUBITAK National Observatory (TUG) during solar cycle 23 for a time interval from 2000 February 26 to 2006 November 15. Due to the weather conditions and seasonal effect dependent on the latitude, the data series has the temporal gaps. For spectral analysis of the data series, thus, we use the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) and the CLEANest algorithm, which are powerful methods for irregularly spaced data. The CLEANest spectra of the solar radius data exhibit several significant mid‐term periodicities at 393.2, 338.9, 206.5, 195.2, 172.3 and 125.4 days which are consistent with periods detected in several solar time series by several authors during different solar cycles. The knowledge relating to the origin of solar radius variations is not yet present. To see whether these variations will repeat in next cycles and to understand how the amplitudes of such variations change with different phases of the solar cycles, we need more systematic efforts and the long‐term homogeneous data. Since most of the periodicities detected in the present study are frequently seen in solar activity indicators, it is thought that the physical mechanisms driving the periodicities of solar activity may also be effective in solar radius variations (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Rebuttal to “Comment on “Evidence of electrical activity on Titan drawn from the Schumann resonances sent by Huygens probe” by J.A. Morente, J.A. Portí, A. Salinas, and E.A. Navarro [2008, Icarus, 195, 802-811]”

Hamelin et al. criticize some conclusions of our paper [Morente, J.A., Portí, J.A., Salinas, A., Navarro, E.A., 2008. Icarus 195, 802-811]. This rebuttal is our response to their criticism. In our view, their comments are contradictory and not based on scientific argument. Our paper presents a comprehensible methodology for extracting weak resonances from the late-time response of systems with high losses and our conclusions are derived from and supported by this methodology, which was first checked using an analytical function and later with the data from a numerical simulation of Titan’s atmosphere. Conversely, the Comment of Hamelin et al. does not contain any mathematical proof, either supporting their statements or invalidating our analysis procedure.     

Grand Minima of Solar Activity and the Mean-Field Dynamo

We demonstrate that a simple solar dynamo model, in the form of a Parker migratory dynamo with random fluctuations of the dynamo governing parameters and algebraic saturation of dynamo action, can at least qualitatively reproduce all the basic features of solar Grand Minima as they are known from direct and indirect data. In particular, the model successfully reproduces such features as an abrupt transition into a Grand Minimum and the subsequent gradual recovery of solar activity, as well as mixed-parity butterfly diagrams during the epoch of the Grand Minimum. The model predicts that the cycle survives in some form during a Grand Minimum, as well as the relative stability of the cycle inside and outside of a Grand Minimum. The long-term statistics of simulated Grand Minima appears compatible with the phenomenology of the Grand Minima inferred from the cosmogenic isotope data. We demonstrate that such ability to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology is not a general feature of the dynamo models but requires some specific assumption, such as random fluctuations in dynamo governing parameters. In general, we conclude that a relatively simple and straightforward model is able to reproduce the Grand Minima phenomenology remarkably well, in principle providing us with a possibility of studying the physical nature of Grand Minima.     

Study of Ribbon Separation and Magnetic Reconnection Rates in a Two-Ribbon Flare

In this paper, we present a study of the correlation between the speed of flare ribbon separation and the magnetic flux density during the 10 April 2001 solar flare. The study includes the section of the neutral line containing the flare core and its peripheral area. This event shows clear two-ribbon structure and inhomogeneous magnetic fields along the ribbons, so the spatial correlation and distribution of the flare and magnetic parameters can be studied. A weak negative correlation is found between the ribbon separation speed (V _r) and the longitudinal magnetic flux density (B _z ). This correlation is the weakest around the peak of the flare. Spatially, the correlation is also weakest at the positions of the hard X-ray (HXR) sources. In addition, we estimate the magnetic reconnection rate (electric field strength in the reconnection region E _rec) by combining the speed of flare ribbons and the longitudinal magnetic flux density. During flare evolution, the time profiles of the magnetic reconnection rate are similar to that of the ribbon separation speed, and the speeds of ribbon separation are relatively slow in the strong magnetic fields (i.e., V _r is negatively correlated with B _z ). However, along the flare ribbons, E _rec fluctuates in a small range except near the HXR source. A localized enhancement of the reconnection rate corresponds to the position of the HXR source.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activity and Flare Index Data during Solar Cycle 23

The short-term periodicities in sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, and flare index data are investigated in detail using the Date Compensated Discrete Fourier Transform (DCDFT) for the full disk of the Sun separately over the rising, the maximum, and the declining portions of solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2006). While sunspot numbers and areas show several significant periodicities in a wide range between 23.1 and 36.4 days, the flare index data do not exhibit any significant periodicity. The earlier conclusion of Pap, Tobiska, and Bouwer (1990, Solar Phys. 129, 165) and Kane (2003, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys. 65, 1169), that the 27-day periodicity is more pronounced in the declining portion of a solar cycle than in the rising and maximum ones, seems to be true for sunspot numbers and sunspot area data analyzed here during solar cycle 23.     

A Century of Solar Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Measurements and Their Implication for Solar UV Driving of Climate

Spectroheliograms and disk-integrated flux monitoring in the strong resonance line of Ca ii (K line) provide the longest record of chromospheric magnetic plages. We compare recent reductions of the Ca ii K spectroheliograms obtained since 1907 at the Kodaikanal, Mt. Wilson, and US National Solar Observatories. Certain differences between the individual plage indices appear to be caused mainly by differences in the spectral passbands used. Our main finding is that the indices show remarkably consistent behavior on the multidecadal time scales of greatest interest to global warming studies. The reconstruction of solar ultraviolet flux variation from these indices differs significantly from the 20th-century global temperature record. This difference is consistent with other findings that, although solar UV irradiance variation may affect climate through influence on precipitation and storm tracks, its significance in global temperature remains elusive.     

Periodicities in Global Mean TEC from GNSS Observations

As an important measurement parameter, global total electron content (TEC) is appropriate for the study of the Sun–Earth connection. In this paper, the wavelet technique is employed to investigate the periodicities in global mean TEC during 1995–2008. Analysis results show several remarkable components (including 27-day, semiannual and annual cycles) existing in global mean TEC with obvious time-variable characteristics, besides 11-year cycle. After analyzing sunspot numbers and solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) radiation variations during this time period, except for semiannual variations, close correlation between global mean TEC and solar variations is found, especially, a strong resemblance of the 27-day fluctuation exists in global mean TEC, sunspot and solar EUV radiation variations.     

The annual period of the Earth’s seismic activity for 1964–2007

The catalog of the United States National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC, 2007) was used for a Fourier analysis of planetary seismic activity from 1964 to 2007 (401219 earthquakes with M ≥ 3 and hypocenter depths H ≥ 1 km) for the Northern Hemisphere (248291 events) and for the Southern Hemisphere (152928 events). The annual periodicity of weak earthquakes (M < 5.0) was verified with a high degree of reliability. All regularities (depending on the geographic latitude, hypocenter depths, and north-south asymmetry) revealed earlier (in 1964–1990) for this period are shown to exist for the period of 1964–2007.