基于小时雨量的泥石流滑坡降雨特征分析

利用2007～2010年6～9月四川加密自动气象站雨量监测资料,分析了小时雨量特征,并结合其间的泥石流、滑坡地质灾害个例,对泥石流、滑坡发生时的降雨特点进行了分析。结果表明,1500m以下小时平均雨强较大时段出现在1～7时,1500m以上小时雨强较大时段出现在夜间10时至次日8时,短历时强降雨是诱发泥石流的关键因素,而滑坡的发生受降水的累计和滞后效应影响。海拔1500m以下,发生泥石流、滑坡一般需要50mm的降水,1500～3500m海拔,6小时降水有15～20mm,就有可能引发泥石流、滑坡,而在3500m以上,6小时降水有10～15mm即可。     

An Observational Study of the Mesoscale Mistral Dynamics

We investigate the mesoscale dynamics of the mistral through the wind profiler observations of the MAP (autumn 1999) and ESCOMPTE (summer 2001) field campaigns. We show that the mistral wind field can dramatically change on a time scale less than 3 hours. Transitions from a deep to a shallow mistral are often observed at any season when the lower layers are stable. The variability, mainly attributed in summer to the mistral/land–sea breeze interactions on a 10-km scale, is highlighted by observations from the wind profiler network set up during ESCOMPTE. The interpretations of the dynamical mistral structure are performed through comparisons with existing basic theories. The linear theory of R. B. Smith [Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 31, 1989, Academic Press, 1–41] and the shallow water theory [Schär, C. and Smith, R. B.: 1993a, J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1373–1400] give some complementary explanations for the deep-to-shallow transition especially for the MAP mistral event. The wave breaking process induces a low-level jet (LLJ) downstream of the Alps that degenerates into a mountain wake, which in turn provokes the cessation of the mistral downstream of the Alps. Both theories indicate that the flow splits around the Alps and results in a persistent LLJ at the exit of the Rhône valley. The LLJ is strengthened by the channelling effect of the Rhône valley that is more efficient for north-easterly than northerly upstream winds despite the north–south valley axis. Summer moderate and weak mistral episodes are influenced by land–sea breezes and convection over land that induce a very complex interaction that cannot be accurately described by the previous theories.     

我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报技术进展与挑战

本文总结了2014年以来我国无缝隙精细化网格天气预报业务的技术进展,讨论了未来发展所面临的关键技术难点。无缝隙精细化网格预报技术的发展,得益于综合气象观测数据和多源资料融合分析网格实况产品的支撑,更依赖于多尺度数值预报模式和实时快速更新同化预报系统的快速发展。经过近5年的探索和努力,我国已经初步建立了针对不同预报时效的无缝隙精细化网格预报技术体系。对于0～4 h预报时效,主要基于全国雷达拼图和GRAPES-Meso模式预报,发展临近分钟级滚动外推预报技术;对于4 h到30 d预报时效,主要通过对区域或全球不同时空分辨率模式预报进行偏差订正、客观解释应用以及降尺度分析,提高预报的准确度和精细度。与此同时,研发了自动化、智能化的交互式预报制作平台,以满足客观高效制作与预报员对极端或高影响天气主观预报优势相结合的需求。发展了以格点实况分析场为参照的空间分析检验方法,初步实现了对高分辨率网格预报的质量跟踪和性能评估。未来的网格预报技术体系,需要吸纳前沿的技术研究成果,包括人工智能应用技术、高级多模式统计后处理技术和协调一致性关键技术等,并且建立统一完整的技术架构和开发标准等。     

Modeled Sverdrup flow in the North Atlantic from 11 different wind stress climatologies

In studies of large-scale ocean dynamics, often quoted values of Sverdrup transport are computed using the Hellerman–Rosenstein wind stress climatology. The Sverdrup solution varies, however, depending on the wind set used. We examine the differences in the large-scale upper ocean response to different surface momentum forcing fields for the North Atlantic Ocean by comparing the different Sverdrup interior/Munk western boundary layer solutions produced by a 1/16° linear numerical ocean model forced by 11 different wind stress climatologies. Significant differences in the results underscore the importance of careful selection of a wind set for Sverdrup transport calculation and for driving nonlinear models. This high-resolution modeling approach to solving the linear wind-driven ocean circulation problem is a convenient way to discern details of the Sverdrup flow and Munk western boundary layers in areas of complicated geometry such as the Caribbean and Bahamas. In addition, the linear solutions from a large number of wind sets provide a well-understood baseline oceanic response to wind stress forcing and thus, (1) insight into the dynamics of observed circulation features, by themselves and in conjunction with nonlinear models, and (2) insight into nonlinear model sensitivity to the choice of wind-forcing product.The wind stress products are evaluated and insight into the linear dynamics of specific ocean features is obtained by examining wind stress curl patterns in relation to the corresponding high-resolution linear solutions in conjunction with observational knowledge of the ocean circulation. In the Sverdrup/Munk solutions, the Gulf Stream pathway consists of two branches. One separates from the coast at the observed separation point, but penetrates due east in an unrealistic manner. The other, which overshoots the separation point at Cape Hatteras and continues to flow northward along the continental boundary, is required to balance the Sverdrup interior transport. A similar depiction of the Gulf Stream is commonly seen in the mean flow of nonlinear, eddy-resolving basin-scale models of the North Atlantic Ocean. An O(1) change from linear dynamics is required for realistic simulation of the Gulf Stream pathway. Nine of the eleven Sverdrup solutions have a C-shaped subtropical gyre, similar to what is seen in dynamic height contours derived from observations. Three mechanisms are identified that can contribute to this pattern in the Sverdrup transport contours. Along 27°N, several wind sets drive realistic total western boundary current transport (within 10% of observed) when a 14 Sv global thermohaline contribution is added (COADS, ECMWF 10 m re-analysis and operational, Hellerman–Rosenstein and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) surface stress re-analysis), a few drive transport that is substantially too high (ECMWF 1000 mb re-analysis and operational and Isemer–Hasse) and Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) surface stresses give linear transport that is slightly weaker than observed. However, higher order dynamics are required to explain the partitioning of this transport between the Florida Straits and just east of the Bahamas (minimal in the linear solutions vs. 5 Sv observed east of the Bahamas). Part of the Azores Current transport is explained by Sverdrup dynamics. So are the basic path of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the circulation features within the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS), when a linear rendition of the northward upper ocean return flow of the global thermohaline circulation is added in the form of a Munk western boundary layer.     

阿坝州南部两次致灾泥石流天气过程对比分析

利用NCEP再分析资料、常规高空及地面常规资料、自动站资料,对2010年8月13日和2011年7月3日阿坝州东南部特大暴雨形成机制以及产生泥石流情况进行了探讨.结果表明：两次强降水天气过程发生在不同的环流背景下,但与副高位置、高原槽、地面冷空气等因素密切相关.两次过程强降水落区都为高空辐散、低空辐合区,且该地区存在强的上升运动,水汽辐合明显.从湿位涡分析得出,强降水区域一般会出现在对流层中下部MPV1负值中心和低层MPV2正值中心的范围内.     

偶极子流在台风异常路径形成中的作用

应用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，分析了9408号台风异常路径形成的可能原因。结果表明，环境引导流、准均匀流和偶极子流的共同作用对移向突变和移速突变有着重要影响。     

浅谈北京规划市区1:500地形图数字化测绘

地形图为国民经济建设和社会各行各业的发展提供测绘保障,它是城市规划设计、市政工程建设、工业与民用建筑、土地开发利用、防灾减灾等各方面的基础数据之一。本文结合北京城市基础测绘工作,以《BSCS G2000》测图软件为例,简述大比例尺数字化地形图的作业流程,地形要素取舍及检查验收工作。     

泰州市海陵区城镇地籍调查技术方法探讨

江苏范围内城镇地籍调查工作开展了很多年,取得了大量的地籍调查成果和地籍调查经验。为满足泰州市海陵区土地管理和城市建设的需要,泰州市国土资源局海陵分局区委托作者及其单位实施了海陵区城镇地籍调查,该项目采用综合利用江苏省全球导航卫星连续运行参考站综合服务系统（Jiangsu Continuously Operating Refer-ence Stations,JSCORS）、全球定位系统（Global Positioning System,GPS）以及性能优越的TOPCON免棱镜全站仪,根据测区不同区域的地形地貌特点针对性的进行地籍测量,即好又快的为该项目的顺利完成提供了优良的技术保障。本文通过对泰州市海陵区地籍调查、地籍测量工作方法进行了总结,旨在进一步提高城镇地籍测量的成果质量与工作效率。     

9806号台风非对称结构形成及其高纬西折路径分析

对9806号台风在弱环境场中的向北移动，至强环境场中折向西行的物理机制进行了分析，得出在弱环境场中台风可形成不对称结构，其物理量如高度的变化在台风进入强环境场后与环境场叠加，从而改变台风移向，强弱环境场的更替，可能是9806号台风移向突变的重要原因。     

“7.15”宜昌大暴雨的地形影响特征

湖北地形复杂,受地形影响产生的局地强降水造成的灾害很多。2010年7月15日宜昌地区的强降水是在满足大尺度降水条件下受地形作用加强的局地暴雨。本文利用实况高空、地面、加密自动站、雷达以及LAPS再分析资料对背景场、低层流场、雷达回波等几个方面进行了分析。得出：冷空气南下和副热带高压的加强促进低层风场的调整,在大尺度降水条件下,地形对低层风场的辐合作用触发了局地强降水的发生。此次过程中地形对降水的触发主要有两方面的作用：一方面为地形迎风坡抬升触发作用,另一方面为地形对近地层流场的影响造成的辐合触发。