基于改进的神经网络方法的风暴潮灾害经济损失预测

风暴潮灾害一直以来对中国东南沿海地区的社会经济发展具有较为严重的负面影响, 是对中国造成危害最为严重的海洋灾害之一, 建立一个准确有效的损失评估模型进行风暴潮灾害损失预测, 对风暴潮灾害的预防具有重要的意义。本文在现有研究的基础上收集了2000—2018年中国东南沿海的琼、粤、闽、浙等省份记录较为完整的风暴潮灾害相关数据, 在综合考虑危险性、承灾体脆弱性、孕灾环境和防灾减灾能力的基础上, 建立起更为完整的风暴潮灾害损失的指标体系。相较于单一的BP神经网络, 本文在借鉴机器学习相关理论的基础上搭建了差分进化灰狼算法(DEGWO)优化的BP神经网络, 对样本进行训练和仿真测试。结果表明, 通过DEGWO算法优化后的模型误差更小, 数据的拟合程度更高, 对比而言, 提高了风暴潮灾害损失预测的精确性, 能够为风暴潮灾害损失预测的研究提供新的思路, 同时也为风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾管理提供了指导。     

大型储罐抗震能力可靠度评估

本文对大型圆筒形立式储液罐抗震能力可靠性分析中涉及的、随机性影响较大的各变量进行了分析,建立了各随机变量的概率模型。针对大型储罐的震害特点,从3个方面建立了大型储罐抗震能力可靠性分析的极限状态方程,提出了总体可靠性评估办法。通过1个具体的油罐分析表明,本文建立的可靠性概率分析模型能够给出较好的抗震能力评估结果。     

Seismic response analysis of adjacent liquid‐storage tanks

A refined substructure technique in the frequency domain is developed, which permits consideration of the interaction effects among adjacent containers through the supporting deformable soil medium. The tank‐liquid systems are represented by means of mechanical models, whereas discrete springs and dashpots stand for the soil beneath the foundations. The proposed model is employed to assess the responses of adjacent circular, cylindrical tanks for harmonic and seismic excitations over wide range of tank proportions and soil conditions. The influence of the number, spatial arrangement of the containers and their distance on the overall system's behavior is addressed. The results indicate that the cross‐interaction effects can substantially alter the impulsive components of response of each individual element in a tank farm. The degree of this impact is primarily controlled by the tank proportions and the proximity of the predominant natural frequencies of the shell‐liquid‐soil systems and the input seismic motion. The group effects should be not a priori disregarded, unless the tanks are founded on shallow soil deposit overlying very stiff material or bedrock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstructing and understanding the impacts of storms and surges,southern North Sea

Coastal barriers are ubiquitous globally and provide a vital protective role to valuable landforms, habitats and communities located to landward. They are, however, vulnerable to extreme water levels and storm wave impacts. A detailed record of sub‐annual to annual; decadal; and centennial rates of shoreline retreat in frontages characterized by both high (> 3 m) and low (< 1 m) dunes is established for a barrier island on the UK east coast. For four storms (2006–2013) we match still water levels and peak significant wave heights against shoreline change at high levels of spatial densification. The results suggest that, at least in the short‐term, shoreline retreat, of typically 5–8 m, is primarily driven by individual events, separated by varying periods of barrier stasis. Over decadal timescales, significant inter‐decadal changes can be seen in both barrier onshore retreat rates and in barrier extension rates alongshore. Whilst the alongshore variability in barrier migration seen in the short‐term remains at the decadal scale, shoreline change at the centennial stage shows little alongshore variability between a region of barrier retreat (at 1.15 m a^?1) and one of barrier extension. A data‐mining approach, synchronizing all the variables that drive shoreline change (still water level, timing of high spring tides and peak significant wave heights), is an essential requirement for validating models that predict future shoreline responses under changing sea level and storminess. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

1990-2011年西昆仑峰区冰川变化的遥感监测

本文应用Landsat 5、7 TM、ETM+影像分析1990-2011年昆仑山西段昆仑峰区冰川变化特征,结果表明:1990-2011年冰川面积减少16.83 km²,退缩率仅为0.65%,冰川退缩趋势不明显。单条冰川变化有进有退,中峰冰川末端在2002-2004年以661 m/a的速率前进,初步判定为跃动冰川。1991-1998年,崇测冰川面积增加9.47 km²,冰川末端以200 m/a的速率前进,不排除有跃动冰川的可能性。尽管近年来全球气温普遍上升,大量冰川处于退缩状态,但统计已有研究结果发现近50年来青藏高原存在冰川长度、面积增加,冰川物质平衡为正的现象,表现出冰川对气候变化复杂的反馈机制。通过分析气象站点和冰芯资料,研究区周边地区气温上升、降水量缓慢增加可能是冰川微弱退缩的原因之一;增强的西风环流带来更多的降水、研究区以极大陆型大规模冰川为主,也可能是冰川退缩幅度较小的原因。     

Numerical investigation of the effect of current on wave focusing

In the present study,a numerical wave tank is developed to simulate the nonlinear wave-current interactions based on High Order Spectral(HOS) method.The influences of current on wave focusing are investigated by use of numerical model.The current is assumed to be constant in space.Focused waves with different amplitudes and frequency spectra are simulated with and without current.The focused wave characteristics,such as surface elevation,the maximum crest and frequency spectrum,with different current are compared.The results show that the opposing current increases the maximum crest and the energy transform during wave focusing process,and vice versa for the following current.     

基于Copula函数的海岸增水高度与相应风速的遭遇概率分析

简要论述了Copula理论与几种常用的二维Archimedean Copula函数的性质和适用性。以粤东汕头海域妈屿历年最高增水高度与相应风速的遭遇为研究实例,在分别采用3个三参数的概率分布模式:广义极值分布(GEV)、Weibull分布(WBL)和皮尔逊Ⅲ型(P-Ⅲ)分布对两个边缘分布(年最高增水高度与相应风速)拟合优度检验基础上构建了两变量联合概率分布模型。主要结果如下:(1) 年最大增水高度与相应风速的边缘分布分别服从Weibull分布和P-Ⅲ型分布;(2) 拟合优度检验指标表明二者的最优连接函数为Archimedean Copula类的Gumbel-Hougaard Copula;(3) 重现期介于2~200 a之间的边缘分布与同频率的联合分布的重现水平相对差值大约介于6.7%~22.2%之间;(4) 特定风速设计频率条件下,随年最大增水设计频率的减小,二者的遭遇概率也随之迅速减小;反之,特定增水设计频率随风速条件频率的减小,二者的遭遇概率随之明显增大。     

台州沿海地区台风风暴潮淹没风险分析

台州市是我国遭受台风风暴潮灾害最为严重的地区之一,对台州地区进行风暴潮淹没风险分析对于该区域的海洋防灾减灾工作有着十分重要的意义。找出对整个评估区域各控制点均能产生较大增水的台风路径作为淹没风险分析的基础路径,同时为保守起见,保证每次台风过程的最大增水均叠加在当地天文高潮上,根据台风强度不同分为6个等级对应风暴潮的不同强度,评估分析六个不同等级的台风风暴潮叠加到台州当地天文高潮所产生的风暴潮灾害。评估中还充分考虑了实际一维海堤等对评估结果的影响,评估结果更加合理。从分析的结果来看,由于台州市区高程普遍偏低,一旦出现海水漫堤的情况,将会在评估区域内造成大面积的淹没,受灾程度视淹没深度和范围不同而不同。     

基于离散单元法的滑坡堆积及其涌浪计算

采用离散单元法对水库库岸边坡的动态破坏过程进行了研究,给出了计算流程并开发了相应的软件。介绍了离散单元法的基本原理,分析了常用的计算滑坡速度方法的不足及用离散单元法的优势,基于离散单元法提供的块体运动信息并结合波动方程模拟了滑坡体滑入水库时所激起的涌浪。此外,采用离散单元法研究了滑坡的堆积形状。通过算例验证了方法的可行性与程序的正确性。算例结果表明：块体在坡面上运动时,用离散单元法计算得到的块体的速度和能量法与潘家铮法一致,且更方便、更高效;由于涌浪的叠加,多个块体所激起的涌浪高度比单个块体的涌浪高一些,这表明在进行涌浪分析时,考虑多块体的涌浪叠加效应是至关重要的,滑坡的堆积形状为滑坡的灾害评估提供了依据。通过自行开发的离散单元法软件模拟了块体的滑动和涌浪的产生及其传播过程,其模拟结果为研究边坡的滑动破坏的启动、破坏过程及滑坡的风险评价提供了新的思路。